Based on all Bitcoin price data from its beginning, a high-level wave (I) and (II) have completed, and wave I of (III) is underway. This wave I has itself completed the first two waves, with wave circle 3 nearing its target level near $77K. The circle 4 should then retrace back to near $50K, followed by wave circle 5 up to about $155K.
BTC momentum, as shown in the Awesome Oscillator, indicates that BTCUSD is still in Wave 3. Since price recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle, the current wave is evidently wave (5) of 3. Projecting wave (5) as a vertical thrust out of the triangle equal to the largest leg of the triangle, results in a target for wave (5) of 3 at 9,670. This is an...
The current breakout from a triangle means the triangle was Wave 4. So we are currently in Wave 5, which typically has a length of 0.618 x the length of waves 1-3. This would mean a BTC price above 11,000 fairly soon!
Based on Fibonacci projections of the 3d and 5th wave, combined with Median Line Set theory, here is a possible projection of the path of Bitcoin over the next week or two.
Yesterday, the S&P rose too high to label the current advance as wave e of B. Therefore, the analysis has to be revised. Using Occam's razor -- the truism that the simplest answer is usually the correct answer -- we should consider the current advance to be wave D of 4. If this is the case, we should very soon expect a drop in wave E. This is consistent with the...
The triangle pattern in the S&P 500 is most likely a triangle B wave, because the first leg down is a 5-wave structure, and thus a 5-wave A. This count is supported by the fact that the VIX closed below its lower Bollinger band yesterday, and if it closes above the band today (which is likely), that will create a broad market sell signal. Since this interpretation...
Based on Fibonacci relationships, apparent wave structure, and apparent trading channels (Modified Schiff), this looks like a reasonable expectation of where BTC-USD is heading.
