Pair: GBPUSD
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish retracement sell
🔍 Technical Outlook:
GBPUSD has retraced sharply from its recent low (1.3137) and is now testing a major resistance zone within the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) from the recent swing high to low:
This zone aligns with prior supply, creating a high-probability short setup.
🧠 Fundamentals + Sentiment
🇬🇧 GBP – Bearish Tilt
BOE's hawkish rate cut (25bps) failed to boost confidence due to internal voting splits and soft macro data.
Weak retail sales and flattening Services PMI signal slowing momentum.
CFTC data: Longs decreasing, net positioning weakening.
🇺🇸 USD – Defensive Strength
Fed holds at restrictive 4.25–4.50%, remains data-dependent.
US macro data like ISM Services and labor market stable.
USD gains from risk-off flows (VIX at 20.42), especially as GBP weakens.
🌐 Confluence Points:
❄️ Risk-off mood: favors USD safe-haven appeal
📉 GBP weakening across fundamentals
💡 Golden pocket = optimal area for trend continuation sell
📊 RSI suggests momentum exhaustion
✅ Conclusion:
GBPUSD is at a key sell zone, sitting within the Fibonacci golden pocket and prior supply. Unless bulls reclaim 1.3335, the path of least resistance is down. This is a textbook retracement short in line with macro and technical confluence.
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish retracement sell
🔍 Technical Outlook:
GBPUSD has retraced sharply from its recent low (1.3137) and is now testing a major resistance zone within the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) from the recent swing high to low:
This zone aligns with prior supply, creating a high-probability short setup.
🧠 Fundamentals + Sentiment
🇬🇧 GBP – Bearish Tilt
BOE's hawkish rate cut (25bps) failed to boost confidence due to internal voting splits and soft macro data.
Weak retail sales and flattening Services PMI signal slowing momentum.
CFTC data: Longs decreasing, net positioning weakening.
🇺🇸 USD – Defensive Strength
Fed holds at restrictive 4.25–4.50%, remains data-dependent.
US macro data like ISM Services and labor market stable.
USD gains from risk-off flows (VIX at 20.42), especially as GBP weakens.
🌐 Confluence Points:
❄️ Risk-off mood: favors USD safe-haven appeal
📉 GBP weakening across fundamentals
💡 Golden pocket = optimal area for trend continuation sell
📊 RSI suggests momentum exhaustion
✅ Conclusion:
GBPUSD is at a key sell zone, sitting within the Fibonacci golden pocket and prior supply. Unless bulls reclaim 1.3335, the path of least resistance is down. This is a textbook retracement short in line with macro and technical confluence.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.