Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPYMy short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated.
MS
Community ideas
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is BNB the next TRXTron has been a major overperformer with catching a niche in the growing stablecoin market. While BNB has been losing market share both in its chain and with its exchange.. BNB does still look strong. It does still share an ongoing fractal with TRX. It does look like relative to its weaker performance itll grow.
I suspect TRX will pull BNB into a breakout of highs. Whether itll lead to gains as great as TRX Im not sure. Im not sure if BNB is the best risk reward but I do think BNB could follow TRX soon with not much relative to market risk.
Why Cost of Living is Still a Concern?Why is the cost of living still a concern, even though inflation has declined to 2.6%?
In many elections over the past two years, voters have ranked inflation as their top concern.
As we can see, the prices of many commodities remain above pre-COVID levels, with gold and meat prices currently much higher than they were at the inflation peak in 2022.
Consciously or unconsciously, both investors and consumers seem to feel that the cost of living will remain elevated for a prolonged period. Moreover, there is always a risk that inflation might creep back up again.
Feeder Cattle Futures & Options
Ticker: GF
Minimum fluctuation:
0.00025 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat?
A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late!
Sometimes, you just have to let go, right?
Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example.
International Hotels Group (IHG)
Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad.
Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔
We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines.
Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade.
To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being.
This helps define the trade risk very well.
If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out.
To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down !
From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too.
That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750).
So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation?
The following is a way to have:
An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters
A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working
A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more)
Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk
Entry Points and Stops
9000 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8600 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9200 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8800 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9400 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Initial Risk: £1000.
Profit Targets
First Position (9000):
Gain: 1000 points.
Profit: £2500.
Second Position (9200):
Gain: 800 points.
Profit: £2000.
Third Position (9400):
Trailing Stop Profit Example:
10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500.
11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more.
Summary
Total Risk: £3000.
Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500.
Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
Understanding Trends and Waves in TradingIntroduction
In trading education, recognising price movements is crucial. Prices move in trends, and these trends move in waves. Understanding these waves is essential for successful trading.
The Two Types of Waves
Impulsive/Primary Trend
Comprises a minimum of five waves.
Dictates the overall direction of price movement.
Corrective/Secondary Trend
Comprises a maximum of three waves.
Provides insights into the ongoing trend.
This phase is the most critical for traders to master.
Conclusion
To trade successfully in a trending market, it’s vital to learn how to accurately count waves. Mastering this skill can significantly enhance your trading decisions. Best wishes for your trading success!
Benchmarking a trend with a moving average (Example: Gold)They say a bad workman blames his tools.
Quite often, good work means using the right tools.
In a trend you need to use trend-following tools - and the most famous indicator is the moving average.
When it's a fast-moving trend, you need to use averages taken over shorter periods (e.g. 20 day SMA > 200 day SMA). Likewise a slower trend needs averages taken over longer periods (e.g. 20 week > 50 day).
Gold has just bounced off the 20 week moving average for the fourth time. The market is clearly benchmarking this trend according to this specific average.
So while the price is above this moving average the trend is intact - and when it eventually breaks below it will be an important signal that the strength of the trend has weakened - and could be about to reverse.
On the daily chart a rising trendline has broken but we would argue the reason the rebound off the low has been so strong is because the price rebounded off the 20 week moving average.
For now our bias is bullish but there are no good risk:reward opportunities to buy and it remains unclear whether the short term uptrend can continue after the trendline break
Live analysis of $BAT Basic Attention Token 1:30PM ESTA cogent analysis of the current price action and prediction for new buy point. 20min. I think this is an extremely good analysis worth everyone's time, and I know I made the video, but I usually hate everything I do… If I like something I did, well... I've been doing this for 25 years and I'm still alive, do with that information what you will.
How To Setup Your TradingView RightHey,
In this video I show you how my charting setup looks like.
I use the monthly, weekly, daily time-frames in one layout.
I use the 4hour and 1hour time-frame in my other layout.
Then I show you everything I trade for FX in my watch list.
Then I show you my crypto and stock market watch list.
Kind regards,
Max
Nvidia - Launching The Final Bullrun!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) can still rally another +40%:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After rejecting the channel resistance in June, July and August of 2024 and correcting about -40%, buyers immediately stepped in and pushed Nvidia much higher. There is a quite high chance, that we will see a final blow off rally, squeezing out the last remaining bears.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Treasury yields at a crossroads? The implications for marketsThe long end of the US Treasury curve has been influential for FX markets recently. The rolling 10-day correlation between US 10-year yields with the DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY is either strongly positive or negative. Even gold shows a notable -0.73 correlation, highlighting the influence of long bonds on broader markets.
Given the inverse relationship between bond yields and prices, it’s no surprise that the correlation between 10-year yields and 10-year Treasury futures (shown in orange, left-hand pane) has been nearly perfectly negative over the past two weeks.
In terms of directional risks for yields moving forward, the right-hand pane showing US 10-year Treasury note futures is instructive. The price remains in a downtrend, repeatedly rejected since being established October. If this trend persists, it signals lower prices and higher yields.
That said, with the bullish hammer candle from the lows last week, coupled with RSI (14) and MACD which are providing bullish signals on momentum, you get the sense we may be in the early stages of a turning point.
If we were to see the price break the downtrend, resistance may be encountered at 113’00, a level that’s been tested from both sides in recent weeks. If that were to give way, it points to an environment of a softer US dollar and kinder conditions for longer duration assets and commodities.
Good luck!
DS
The TradingView Show: Post-Election Trades with TradeStationJoin us for our recurring series as we dive deep into the latest market movements, emerging trends, and key financial news with @TradeStation. This monthly show is designed to keep traders and investors up to date on the developments that truly move the markets. Don’t forget to explore our comprehensive video library on our profile—scroll back to catch past episodes, and follow our TradingView account to stay in the loop.
In this episode, we’ll provide actionable insights and educational resources for new traders, including charting tips and an introduction to market dynamics.
Here’s what we’ll be covering this time:
- A detailed analysis of NVIDIA’s earnings and what they mean for tech and semiconductor stocks
- How rising interest rates are influencing market sentiment and trading strategies
- Post-election trades: positioning for the rest of the year
- End-of-year trading opportunities: sectors and stocks to watch
- A look at the energy sector and how oil prices are affecting energy stocks
- Insights into the banking sector’s recent breakout and its potential impact
- Key ratio charts to help inform your strategy
- And much more!
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BUY SILVER (XAGUSD) - Price action entry strategy explainedTrader Tom, a technical analyst with over 15 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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BTCUSD - Using Fibonacci To ScalpGood morning everyone!
A bit of a different video today - more of an educational video. This is how I use fibonacci when I do trading. Over the last couple days, Bitcoin has been a great asset to scalp. I don't leverage trade often, but when I do, I try and look for the high probability setups.
Using the 61.8% internal retracement fibonacci (fib) level, you can find a great place to make a trade, both long or short. After dropping from 93k to 88k, we can measure that move and find where the price action would move 61.8% within it. That's where you attack.
Risk management? Well, from there, you need to give yourself some wiggle room. As you can see from the video, price action navigated within my stop territory, but you can use the 78.6% fib level (beyond the 61.8 level) as a stop. Typically, if price action gets to that 78.6% level, it's not going to stop.
Target? I outlined two ways to get a target, but typically when you do get a rejection off that 61.8, you should be targeting the -23.6% fib extension target. That's basically exactly where bitcoin landed - around 87k.
That is the general rule of thumb when trading with fibonacci - which as I mentioned in my video update - is one of the ONLY leading indicators - meaning it can give you insights into the future vs just explaining in many ways what has already happened.
Have a great day everyone!
Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Major Crash? Warning Signs Ahead!👀👉 Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged to all-time highs, but is the rally about to reverse? On the 1M monthly timeframe, a key horizontal resistance level is flashing warning signals. BTC appears heavily overbought, and the trend shows clear signs of overextension.
📉 Using advanced trading concepts like Wyckoff theory and ICT methodology, this video breaks down:
- How historical price action reveals similar overextended moves that led to significant pullbacks.
- Why the Fibonacci tool suggests a potential retracement to equilibrium after a parabolic price swing.
- The lack of smart money accumulation since the last major price breakout, signaling potential vulnerabilities.
🔍 We’ll examine two key scenarios:
1. Bearish Opportunity: If price action breaks structure and takes out existing range lows, it could signal a deeper correction.
2. Bullish Opportunity: If BTC trades into a discounted zone below equilibrium, this could present a strong buy opportunity for longer-term positioning.
📊 This analysis is for educational purposes only and highlights the importance of managing risk in a market known for its volatility. Past performance is no guarantee of future results—trade wisely and always assess your risk tolerance!
👉 Don’t miss this critical breakdown. Learn how to read the charts like a pro and prepare for what’s next in Bitcoin’s journey!📊
Tesla's Next Move: Will 360 Be the Target, or Are We Going LowerGood evening, trading family.
Tesla is at an exciting crossroads, and we’re keeping a close eye on the key levels ahead. Let’s break it down:
Upside Potential:
325: First step if the market pushes upward.
338: A critical resistance—breaking this could lead to 360+.
Downside Risks:
298: A potential level for support if we pull back.
287: A deeper support level if selling continues.
At the MindBloome Exchange, we care about your success. Trade what you see, stay patient, and let the levels guide you.
Kris / Mindbloome Trading
The TradingView Show: Strategy Session with OKX Product PartnerWelcome, TradingViewers! 🚀
Get ready for an exciting and educational live stream designed to empower traders of all levels! In this broadcast, we’ll dive deep into markets starting with a top down research process, looking at the macro picture first, then zooming in to the moves that are shaping markets right now. We'll also dive into Pine Script, the election, recent moves as the year comes to an end, and much more.
Our partner OKX has brought on one of their product partners to walk our audience through the charts. Remember: OKX is a partner and integrated broker of ours. Connect your OKX account to your TradingView account to get started by clicking the Trading Panel below the chart.
Here’s what we’ll cover:
1. Top-Down Market Research: Start with a macro view of the markets and learn how to break down the big picture to make better, more informed trading decisions.
2. Crypto Market Updates: Get the latest insights and analysis on cryptocurrencies and what’s driving the market right now.
3. Pine Script Deep Dive: Learn how to leverage Pine Script to enhance your trading strategies and build custom indicators on TradingView.
4. Trading the Election & Year-End Moves: Understand how political events and seasonal market shifts are influencing price action as we approach the end of the year.
5. Live Q&A: Have your trading questions answered in real time by industry experts, and get tailored advice to level up your trading skills.
Follow OKX on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Sit back, ask questions, and enjoy the show! Please note: This show is only for education and entertainment.
AUD/USD sinks to new lows as focus shifts to Aussie jobs dataWhether you’re talking price action or momentum, AUD/USD looks terrible on the daily, taking out the intersection of the US election lows and downtrend support with ease on Wednesday.
Momentum is with the bears; RSI (14) has cut its uptrend like a hot knife through butter while MACD has crossed over from above, confirming the bearish signal. Selling rips and bearish breaks may prove more successful than buying dips in this environment.
The short setup would be to sell here or wait for a potential squeeze towards .6513 as traders anticipate another stellar labour force report – there have been plenty of those recently. That would allow for a tight stop to be placed above the level, providing appealing risk-reward for those targeting a retest of key uptrend support at .6375.
The last time the Aussie interacted with the level during the Japanese market meltdown of August, it resulted in significant bullish reversal, underlining its technical importance. As such, it looms as an obvious target.
Good luck!
DS






















