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BTC Corrections Donโ€™t Kill Bull Market. They Power Them1. Primary Trend Structure Macro trend: Clearly bullish. Price has respected a rising diagonal trendline since the 2022โ€“2023 cycle low. Market structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming an intact uptrend. This is a classic bull market staircase: impulsive advances (green boxes) followed by corrective consolidations (red boxes). 2. Cycle & Time Symmetry Observation Advancing phases lasting roughly 120โ€“225 days Corrective phases averaging 80โ€“120 days Volume tends to expand during upswings and contract during consolidations This suggests: Healthy demand-driven rallies Corrections are time-based rather than price-destructive Importantly, the current corrective phase (~118 bars) is statistically aligned with prior pullbacks. 3. Current Price Action (Key Focus) Price is pulling back toward the rising trendline. This is the first meaningful retest after a strong impulsive leg. Historically, BTC has often reacted positively at this trendline This zone acts as: Dynamic support A decision point between trend continuation vs. deeper correction 4. RSI & Momentum Context RSI is around 45 This is neutral-to-bullish, not oversold. Momentum has cooled without breaking down Interpretation: No bearish divergence visible RSI reset is consistent with bull market consolidations, not trend reversals 5. Volume Behavior Declining volume during the pullback Higher volume during prior upswings This supports: Profit-taking, not aggressive distribution Sellers lack conviction so far 6. Key Levels to Watch Support Rising trendline (critical) Prior consolidation midpoint (green box support area) Psychological zone near previous cycle high region Resistance Recent local highs Upper range of the last distribution box Break-and-hold above prior ATH zone would signal continuation 7. Probable Scenarios Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Higher Probability) Trendline holds Price forms a base Next impulsive leg begins โ†’ new highs Scenario 2: Deeper Correction (Lower Probability but Possible) Daily close below trendline Retest of prior green box support On-Chain Confirmation a) Long-Term Holder (LTH) Behavior LTH supply remains stable to rising. No evidence of aggressive LTH distribution yet Interpretation: Smart money is holding, not exiting. Exchange Balances BTC on exchanges continues a structural decline Indicates: Reduced sell-side pressure More cold storage / institutional custody This supports the idea that pullbacks are liquidity-driven, not supply-driven. Macro Liquidity Context (Primary Driver) Global Liquidity (M2 & Financial Conditions) Bitcoinโ€™s major uptrends historically align with expanding global liquidity, not strictly rate cuts. Even with policy rates elevated, financial conditions have eased via: Treasury issuance absorption Stable banking reserves Risk-on capital rotation Implication: BTC can continue trending higher before rate cuts, as long as liquidity is not contracting aggressively. ETF & Institutional Flow Impact: Spot BTC ETFs introduced: Persistent baseline demand Structural bid during dips Even during corrections: Flows slow, but do not reverse violently This changes historical cycle dynamics (less violent bear legs) Risk Signals to Monitor (Invalidation Checklist) This bullish macro/on-chain thesis weakens if: Global liquidity contracts sharply LTH supply begins sustained decline Exchange inflows spike aggressively Daily & weekly close below the rising trendline + failure to reclaim Absent these, pullbacks remain buy-the-dip corrections.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by AJCRYPTO25
36
BTCUSD Holds Triangle Support - Bounce Toward 88,500 ExpectedHello traders! Hereโ€™s my technical outlook on BTC/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a downward channel, Bitcoin found a base near the lower boundary and reversed sharply, signaling seller exhaustion and a shift in momentum. This reversal was followed by a breakout above the descending resistance, confirming the end of the bearish phase. Price then entered a consolidation range, where accumulation took place before a confirmed breakout pushed BTC higher. Following the range breakout, the market formed a triangle structure, with price respecting the Triangle Support Line while facing pressure from the Triangle Resistance Line. Recently, BTC revisited the Buyer Zone around 86,300โ€“85,500, which aligns with both horizontal support and the lower triangle boundary. Buyers stepped in at this level, defending the structure and keeping the recovery scenario intact. Currently, BTC is attempting a rebound from the Buyer Zone and is aiming toward the 88,500 Resistance Level (TP1). As long as price holds above the support zone, a move toward this resistance remains likely. A clean breakout above 88,500 would confirm further upside continuation, while rejection could lead to another consolidation or retest of support. For now, the structure favors buyers, with 86,300โ€“85,500 as key support and 88,500 as the main upside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost ๐Ÿš€
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by LegionQ8
31
How to Use VWAP in Confluence with StructureVWAP is one of the few indicators that consistently adds value when used correctly. It does not predict direction and it does not replace market structure, but it provides a powerful reference point for where fair value sits within the current session or trend. When combined with structural analysis, VWAP helps you filter trades, improve timing, and avoid impulsive entries that fight the underlying flow. The first step is understanding what VWAP represents. It shows the average price weighted by volume, reflecting where most transactions have occurred. When price trades above VWAP, it signals that buyers are in control of the session. When price trades below it, sellers dominate. This context becomes meaningful only when it aligns with the higher timeframe structure. Start by establishing your bias through market structure. If the higher timeframe is in an uptrend and price trades within a discount zone, VWAP becomes a dynamic confirmation tool. A reclaim of VWAP after a liquidity sweep or after a break of structure is one of the cleanest signals that buyers are stepping back in. The same applies in reverse for downtrends: a VWAP rejection after a pullback into premium strengthens the short bias. VWAP also adds clarity during intraday consolidation. Ranges often form around VWAP because it reflects the sessionโ€™s equilibrium. Breakouts that occur away from VWAP without pullbacks frequently lack durability. However, a breakout followed by a retest of VWAP shows acceptance and builds confidence in continuation. This combination turns a common indicator into a reliable filter rather than a standalone signal. Another effective use of VWAP is identifying exhaustion. When price aggressively pushes far above or below VWAP, it often signals that the move is extended. This does not mean you fade the trend, but it does mean you tighten expectations and wait for structure to align before entering. Once price reconnects with VWAP and shows intent, the next move becomes more sustainable. VWAP becomes particularly powerful when paired with session logic. Trading above VWAP in a bullish higher timeframe environment during London or New York sessions often leads to cleaner impulses. Trading against VWAP during low-volume hours produces far more false signals. Timing, structure, and VWAP together create a cohesive framework. Used in confluence, not in isolation, VWAP supports disciplined decision-making. It aligns entries with momentum, filters low-quality setups, and clarifies whether the market accepts or rejects a level. When you combine VWAP with structure, liquidity, and session context, your trades become more intentional, less emotional, and significantly more consistent.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
19
#BITCOIN: Latest Update 14/12/2025 Show Massive Drop ComingDear Traders, Overview On BTCUSDT๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐Ÿ”บHope you are doing great, we have an excellent opportunity on BTC showing strong rejection at $96,000 region; price failed multiple times showing extreme sellers momentum in the market. After the rejection the daily candle started suggesting a strong drop in the price. ๐Ÿ”บThis analysis is only for buying and it does suggest to sell at this level, however, if you sell, do it with upmost care and precaution. What Next?๐Ÿ“Š ๐Ÿ”บThe best way to optimise the profit is to wait for price to fall around our entry zone which is clearly marked. ๐Ÿ”บSet targets at 100K, 120K and The Final Target At 150K Support And Encouragement:โค๏ธ If you like our work then like and comment which will encourage us to post such more analysis. Much Love: Team Setupsfx_
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
19
| This Chart Shows How We Look at BTC Halving & Market Cycles | This chart shows how we look at BTC halvings and market cycles. Every cycle follows a similar structure โ€” accumulation, expansion, distribution, reaccumulation โ€” but the way it plays out is never the same. Thatโ€™s the key part most people miss. Yes, around 539 days have already passed since the last halving, but so far what weโ€™ve really seen is BTC printing a new ATH. And that alone does not define the start of a bull market. BTC making an ATH has happened before without a proper broad market expansion right away. For us, the real confirmation comes from ETH. Once ETH prints a new ATH โ€” or at least starts hovering close to it โ€” thatโ€™s when we can say the bull market has actually started. Only then do we expect the kind of expansion most people are waiting for, especially on alts. Until that happens, everything before it is just positioning and volatility. Weโ€™ve said it before and weโ€™ll say it again: every bull run is different. This one is no exception. Too many people were waiting for the bull run to โ€œjust workโ€ the same way it always did. When expectations become that obvious, markets rarely deliver in a clean way. The most logical outcomes in that case are either delaying the bull run or aggressively taking liquidity โ€” exactly like the recent dip that wiped out a lot of positions and shook people out. Bigger players need fuel, and that fuel comes from impatience. So no, this doesnโ€™t mean the bull run is cancelled. It means itโ€™s evolving differently. BTC did its part by making a new ATH. Now the market is waiting on ETH. Once that happens, the smaller bull run most people are hoping for can finally kick off. Until then, patience, positioning, and understanding the cycle matters more than hype.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SwallowAcademy
19
Bitcoin: Weakness Is Where Opportunity Lurks.Bitcoin is coming off a double top lower high within what appears to be a bearish triangle formation. While this pattern is going to elicit bearish reactions from the herd (experts), it is important to ANTICIPATE potential turning points that can catch everyone off guard. While Bitcoin can break lower and potentially test the low 70Ks, it can ALSO hold the 80K area, form a double bottom/failed low and reverse. Such a formation would confirm a HIGHER LOW on the larger time frames like weekly. How you navigate this situation will totally depend on the time horizon component of your strategy. The illustration on this chart emphasizes the double bottom scenario. The arrow points to minor support areas to watch price behavior for reversals. The time frame you use to observe will depend on what type of trader you are: day, swing or position. The reason I anticipate price will find support is because the broader fundamentals are still generally bullish, particularly when it comes to future actions by the Fed. It is important to realize, they just cut again and while no futures cuts were announced for the near term, it takes TIME for these recent cuts to be felt, like at least half a year. Sine Bitcoin is anti inflationary, it is likely to benefit. Another important point is : OPPORTUNITY often lurks in UGLY markets, NOT when Bitcoin is pushing 126K. Why were NONE of the experts calling for Bitcoin to have a healthy correction when it was pushing the highs? They were too busy telling everyone "its going to 200K from here". The herd mentality is REAL and a significant component of human nature. While I also had no idea that this correction was going to unfold, I at LEAST warned people that the RISK was extremely high at those levels. This point further illustrates that NOW is the time be to interested, NOT fearful. It's like going to the supermarket and your favorite food is on sale. What do you do? Stock up on it because normally it costs more, so you perceive value. The concept is the same in the financial markets, its just not as simple because substantial amounts of capital and leverage are also part of the equation. The optimal mindset for Bitcoin in the coming weeks is: Maintain an OPEN mind because ANYTHING can happen. Be PREPARED for the possibility of price reversing at the major support levels because the broader price structure supports such a scenario. It's ALL about IF the market confirms or NOT. With this in mind, IF it breaks instead, you should at least know how to adjust by stepping aside if you are on smaller time frames, and being enthusiastic to accumulate relative to your risk tolerance as a position trader or investor. Also note: 88K is the Wave 1, Wave 4 overlap that I have talked about many times. So far price has not spent a significant amount of time below this level. IF it breaks with conviction and stays below for days or weeks, that can be interpreted as we are in the broader Wave 2 which can increase the chances of more of an extreme corrective move within a structure that is still considered bullish. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
Bitcoinโ€™s Next Move Starts Here Key Levels MappedBTC is currently in a technically critical phase. Price is trading below a major dynamic trendline resistance after a confirmed bearish break, keeping the broader structure corrective rather than impulsive. Momentum remains capped unless bulls reclaim key dynamic levels. The plan from here is straightforward and scenario-based: A. If price retraces into the Immediate Dynamic Trendline (IDT) and gets rejected again, that rejection becomes a high-probability short trigger. In that case, downside continuation toward the Demand Pool Zone (DPZ) is expected to complete leg 5 of the corrective wave. This zone is where I would anticipate strong accumulation and a relief rally, targeting a move back into the Supply Pool Zone (SPZ). B. Alternatively, if BTC breaks and holds above the IDT, momentum should accelerate to the upside, with the Supply Pool Zone remaining the primary upside target, exactly as mapped on the chart. What happens at the Supply Pool is decisive. If bulls fail to hold price and we see a strong rejection, that would confirm distribution and could trigger a complete bearish expansion, opening the door to much deeper targets, potentially toward the $50k region. Market is at a decision point. Are you bullish or bearish from here? Letโ€™s discuss your view
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by weslad
18
Japan just sent a warning most Bitcoin traders are missing!Hey @TradingView Community, Japan just sent a signal most traders are overlooking Let me explain The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates toward 0.75% Levels not seen in decades On the surface, it looks insignificant but In reality, it impacts global liquidity For years, Japan has been the cheapest source of capital. Investors borrowed yen at near-zero rates and deployed that money into risk assets like equities, real estate, and crypto. This is the yen carry trade! When rates rise, leverage unwinds. Not because Bitcoin is weak but because cheap money disappears. Higher borrowing costs lead to: โ€ข Leveraged position closures โ€ข Forced selling โ€ข Increased volatility This is not Japan targeting Bitcoin, this is liquidity tightening! Bitcoin is still being traded as a leveraged risk asset, not held purely as a long-term store of value and that distinction explains the reaction At We Trade Waves we donโ€™t panic over volatility, we study where price pressure comes from, how to read the structures and how to take advantage of the next move Assets dependent on leverage are fragile but Assets held with conviction turn volatility into opportunity Japanโ€™s move isnโ€™t about 0.75% Itโ€™s about discipline returning to markets and every cycle reminds us of the same truth: Easy money inflates moves Tight conditions reveal structure Thatโ€™s how real market understanding is built and that's how cycles and waves works And the most important part, don't forget We Trade Waves 4 Golden rules! 1) Do not jump in 2) Do not over risk/trade 3) Do not trade without Stop Loss 4) Never ever add to a losing position! Whatโ€™s your take: short-term liquidity shock or a healthy market reset? Trade with care, Alain M(Coach) WTW Team
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by WeTradeWAVES
14
Bitcoin Tests Resistance - Downside Risk Toward $85,700Hello traders! Hereโ€™s my technical outlook on BTC/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a clearly defined descending channel, Bitcoin attempted a recovery and managed to break out of the channel. However, this upside move lacked strong follow-through. Price entered a consolidation range, where multiple reactions and fake breakouts signaled distribution rather than accumulation. This behavior suggested that sellers were still active at higher levels. Following the range, BTC formed a triangle structure, capped by a descending Triangle Resistance Line and supported by a rising Triangle Support Line. Price has been compressing within this structure, but recent attempts to push higher were rejected near the 88,500 Resistance Level (TP1), confirming strong selling pressure at this zone. Currently, BTC is trading near the upper boundary of the triangle, where sellers continue to defend resistance. As long as price remains below the Triangle Resistance Line and fails to reclaim 88,500, the bearish scenario remains in play. My scenario: I expect a rejection from the triangle resistance, followed by a move back toward the 85,700 Support Level, which aligns with both horizontal support and the lower triangle boundary. A clean breakdown below 85,700 would confirm bearish continuation and open the door for a deeper decline. Only a strong breakout and hold above 88,500 would invalidate this short setup. For now, the market favors sellers below resistance, with 88,500 as key resistance and 85,700 as the main downside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost ๐Ÿš€
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by LegionQ8
14
BITCOIN Is this the 'last chance' for camp Bulls?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and as we've shown in previous posts, as long as it holds, this could initiate the first counter-trend rally of the Bear Cycle. This 'last chance for camp Bulls' is further strengthened by the fact that the 3D RSI is displaying a similar pattern as the previous two Higher Low bottoms of the Bull Cycle in March - April 2025 and July - September 2024. That is a Higher Lows 3D RSI Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. This time isn't exactly Lower Lows for the price but the 1W MA100 has taken this part. Still it is almost identical to the previous ones and can kick-start a rally. Whether buyers can translate that into a final Bull Cycle rally to keep the hopes of the Cycle up, it remains to be seen. Extensive multi-angle technical analysis shows that 'hopes' should be very high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) historically assumes the role of the long-term Resistance level during Bear Cycles. So can BTC rebound here and fuel a 'last chance for camp Bulls'? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, FOLLOW โœ…, SHARE ๐Ÿ™Œ and COMMENT โœ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
BTC Major Alert AnalysisMike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has issued a stark warning that BTC could face a steep plunge. It is projected that by 2026, BTC could drop as much as 86%, potentially reaching the $10,000 level. The warning also highlights that if BTC once again breaks above the $100,000 mark, it could ironically trigger a deep correction cycle, ultimately driving the price back down to $10,000. Current Market Conditions๏ผš Currently, BTC is trading in a tight range around $90,000. BTC has fallen about 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October. Market sentiment is turning cautious, with investors closely watching upcoming price action and macroeconomic policy developments. Macro Background and Rationale๏ผš Analysts describe the current macroeconomic environment as a post-inflation tightening period. They believe that a reversal of the wealth effect will drive the next economic downturn. This process is likely to be driven by a collapse of speculative, infinitely-supplied digital assets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Kevin-Asset-Lab
8
BITCOIN Ichimoku red flip taking place. NOT GOOD.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of turning its 1W Ichimoku Cloud from bullish (green) to bearish (red). It has been on a consecutive green state since October 23 2023. This red flipping is a major development as relative to the previous BTC Bear Cycles, it has happened around the exact same stage that we are at right now. This technically confirms that we are already on the new Bear Cycle (something we've been talking about since September) and that the basic stages/ phases of it remain the same. The high degree of symmetry is further shown by the fact that when this Ichimoku flip takes place, the price has historically been trading around 175 days (25 weeks) away from it (green circle), supported by the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). And that has always been the stage of a counter-trend rebound/ rally that targeted and was rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line). The second remarkable display of symmetry is that following this Ichimoku red flip, the Bear Cycles bottomed around 105 days (15 weeks) after it (blue circles). So what do the above data suggest for the market right now? That there is a short-term rally pending towards the 1D MA200 and that we may see the Bear Cycle bottoming around the end of September 2026. Would you agree with this thesis? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, FOLLOW โœ…, SHARE ๐Ÿ™Œ and COMMENT โœ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
9
Fear Creates Winners โ€” BTC 84.8K Swing to 132K?BTC Technical Outlook (2D Chart) I always prefer using the 2-Day timeframe (2D) when analyzing Bitcoin because it helps minimize noise, reduce false signals, and highlight the true macro trend. When you zoom out, the market becomes more honest. Right now, Bitcoin is testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel, a level that has historically generated strong bullish reversals. Sentiment is heavily bearish, liquidity is building under 85K, and RSI is approaching oversold โ€” all aligning for a high-probability swing setup. Swing Trade Plan (Macro Structure) Entry Zone: Around 84,800 USD Take Profit: 132,000 USD Stop Loss: A confirmed 2-Day CLOSE below 74,400 USD The idea is simple: The structure remains bullish as long as BTC stays above the lower channel line. A 2-day close below 74,400 would mean the channel is broken โ€” and the setup is invalidated. "When everyone becomes bearish, be the fool who buys โ€” because the fool who buys support becomes the genius at the target." Entry around 84,800, TP 132K, SL only on a 2-Day close below 74,400. Risk-to-Reward โ‰ˆ 1:4.5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Yashour
5
Bitcoin Daily: Bear Flag / Rising Wedge โ€“ Breakdown to 76K?Bitcoin is currently consolidating inside a rising wedge after a strong impulsive sell-off on the daily timeframe. This structure appears corrective in nature and aligns with a classic bear-flag / rising-wedge continuation setup. Momentum indicators (SQZMOM and ASO) are showing signs of exhaustion, suggesting the current bounce lacks strength. A breakdown below wedge support would likely open the door for a move toward the 75kโ€“76k horizontal support zone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ClaudioVelez
7
85,354 and 35 cents: BTC Golden Genesis Fib proving VERY strongShown here is a single fib series in three different timeframes. The "Genesis Sequence" has called all major turns since 2015. These are "high gravity" objects that tend to capture into orbit. This Golden fib (1.1618 exponent) has proven itself again and again. It probably will NOT hold after so many hits but WOW, what a fighter! Perhaps bulls will pull off a miracle, but likely we fall through it now. $125,550.41 was the cycle top exactly at a fib. $ 85,354.35 Golden Fib that has proven utlra-strong $ 97,769.44 is first barrier for bounce off the Golden. $ 77,672.47 is the first support if we lose the Golden. . See "Related Publications" for previous Plots such as this EXACT TOP call: Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts. ======================================================== .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EuroMotif
5
BTCUSD โ€“ Downside Pressure Remains in ControlAfter a period of strong volatility, Bitcoin is entering a phase of โ€œcatching its breathโ€ as market sentiment shifts toward a defensive stance . Short-term capital has become more cautious, while macro factors and interest-rate expectations remain unclear, failing to trigger a fresh risk-on wave. As a result, BTC is struggling to sustain meaningful rebounds. From a technical perspective, the outlook is tilted toward a bearish trend . Price has been repeatedly rejected at the descending trendline and is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that sellers remain in control of the primary trend. The 88,300 zone is acting as near-term resistance, where rebounds are likely to face profit-taking and renewed selling pressure. On the downside, 84,300 stands out as a key support level. Given the current structure, upward moves are more likely to be technical pullbacks rather than genuine reversals. If price fails to break and hold above 88,300, BTC is likely to remain under pressure and retest the 84,300 zone, or even move lower should selling momentum accelerate. In summary, the short-term bias remains bearish. The more prudent approach is to patiently wait for pullbacks to align with the trend, rather than rushing to catch a falling knife. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, and price reaction at key resistance levels will determine the marketโ€™s next move.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Paradise_Noir
13
IS BTCUSD UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ?BTCUSD โ€“ Intraday Technical Perspective BTCUSD is currently trading around 86,224, positioning itself below the nearby resistance at 88,286. Price remains under pressure after failing to sustain upside momentum, suggesting cautious sentiment in the short term. On the downside, the 84,500 demand zone is the next key area of interest. If selling pressure continues and this zone fails to hold, price may extend toward the 84,000 liquidity area, where further reactions could occur. For now, Iโ€™m observing how BTCUSD behaves between these levels, as reactions around support and resistance should provide clearer insight into short-term structure and momentum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FOREX_ODYSSEY
5
How i Sell Spot btc & Close my Longs at TopThis isnโ€™t a call on where Bitcoin goes next. Itโ€™s simply the chart that helped me exit my long positions right near the top. Iโ€™ve kept this setup unchanged for years. No fancy indicators, no complicated overlays. Just the long-term trend lines that have guided every major expansion and slowdown since Bitcoinโ€™s early cycles. When price tapped the upper boundary of this structure, the reaction was enough for me to start unwinding my longs. Nothing mystical here โ€” just respecting a level that has mattered for nearly a decade. The point of sharing this is to show how even the oldest, simplest charts can keep you grounded. Markets get noisy. Narratives change every week. But the big structure rarely lies. This chart helped me stay disciplined, and it still sits on my screen the same way it did years ago.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by rishyrish
14
BITCOIN following the same blueprint as all previous Bear CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been falling non-stop since its October All Time High and all the signs continue to be there that we have already entered the new Bear Cycle. We've been sharing extensive analyses with you since September on the markers of the Bear Cycle and the latest indicator that adds to the data set is the STOCH on the 3W time-frame. As you can see, it has entered a level where all previous three Bear Cycles completed roughly their 1st Phase and rebounded on a dead-cat-bounce. On average it i roughly after every three 3W candles that this happens, this time it was after two, the previous two Bear Cycles after three and the one before (longest) after six. Also this is the fastest it's reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) on a Bear Cycle correction and most likely it will be the same for its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA100 (green trend-line). This is another sign that shows how every Cycle gets less and less aggressive. The first Bear Cycle dropped by roughly -94%, the second by -87%, the third by -84% and the fourth (last) by 77%. This decelerating rate reveals BTC's asymptotic behavior as more and more mass adoption kicks in with every passing Cycle. As the market stabilizes, becomes larger and more widespread, the volatility becomes lower and lower. This is a sign of maturity. So what does this potentially mean for us and this Bear Cycle? Well that the drop will most likely be contained at -70% maximum (-7% less than the previous Cycle), a rate that may be as low as -60% (just after contacting the 3W MA100) if ETF buying interest returns or other fundamental catalysts (bitcoin treasuries etc?) accelerate adoption. So this potential range translates into a possible buy zone of $50000 - $38000 towards the end of 2026 but that's a topic we've analyzed extensively on other studies. So do you think the 3W STOCH puts another nail on Bitcoin's coffin or there are still hopes that the Bull Cycle will be resumed? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE ๐Ÿ‘, FOLLOW โœ…, SHARE ๐Ÿ™Œ and COMMENT โœ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ๐Ÿ’ธ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ‘‡
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
3
High Probability Setups: Divergence in Price and VolumePrice defines direction, but volume defines participation. High probability setups emerge when both align. When they separate, conditions change. Divergence between price and volume is one of the clearest tools for assessing whether a move is supported by real commitment or driven by diminishing participation. In strong market conditions, impulsive price movements are accompanied by stable or increasing volume. This shows that traders are actively committing capital in the direction of the move. Pullbacks during these phases typically show reduced volume, confirming that counter-moves are corrective rather than a shift in control. This alignment between price expansion and volume participation supports continuation. Divergence forms when price continues to extend while volume contracts. The market is still moving, but fewer participants are involved. This shift indicates that momentum is weakening beneath the surface. The move becomes more fragile, and continuation requires increasingly less resistance to fail. These conditions often develop before structural changes become visible on price alone. The relevance of divergence increases at key locations. When price reaches major highs or lows, premium or discount zones, or obvious liquidity pools, declining volume signals absorption. Orders are being filled without follow-through. Late participants provide liquidity rather than fuel. This explains why many apparent breakouts stall or reverse shortly after forming. Volume behaviour also clarifies breakout quality. Breaks that occur with low or declining volume often lack acceptance. Price may move beyond a level, but without participation the market struggles to sustain the new range. When price quickly re-enters the prior structure, divergence explains the failure before structural confirmation appears. During consolidation phases, volume provides insight into preparation. Falling volume reflects compression and balance. Rising volume within a range reflects active engagement and positioning. Divergence during these phases often precedes resolution, especially when combined with liquidity interaction at range boundaries. High probability setups form when divergence aligns with location and structure. Volume refines what price presents. It helps identify whether a move is being supported, absorbed, or exhausted. Reading this relationship consistently improves timing, reduces false entries, and keeps execution aligned with real market participation rather than surface-level movement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
14