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BITCOIN / TETHERUS PERPETUAL CONTRACT

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Bitcoin will die! Silver pumped +200% - GOLD (2026 prediction)Bitcoin will die in 2026, and a lot of traders will get liquidated! Silver pumped by 200% this year, gold by 75%, and the US stock index Nasdaq by 61%, while Bitcoin dropped from 126k to 80k in 2025. I will tell you exactly why in this analysis! First, let's take a look at Bitcoin and the main reason behind this drop. If you started investing in Bitcoin, I have to warn you because the total market capitalization is already extremely big. In other words, Bitcoin will never go up exponentially as it did in previous years! You are late to the Ponzi, so forget about 10x or 50x profit. The price of Bitcoin, the code of Bitcoin, and the future of Bitcoin are completely controlled by the banks and huge institutions. Crypto technology is not new in the galaxy, it has been brought to planet Earth by aliens. So why is Bitcoin going down? As an investor, you should probably know that Bitcoin experiences halving events +- every 4 years. From a technical point of view, we have 3 years of growth and 1 year of sharp decline. We already had the 3-year growth cycle (2022-2025), so we can expect a massive drop in 2026. How low can Bitcoin go? My prediction is 40k to 60k. What about silver and gold? Why are these precious metals going up like crazy? Mostly because the price has been kept very low for a very long time. The banks did their best to keep the price low. Over 99% of gold and silver is in a virtual form or in the form of contracts. So they artificially decreased the price of these metals for their own benefits. There are still people who think that gold, silver, and Bitcoin are enemies to the traditional banking system and banks in general. That is 100% false; in fact, it's the opposite - they love them. Banks make money mostly on providing services, such as keeping your money safe, or loans or payments... It really doesn't matter if they give you a loan in gold or bitcoin fiat dollars as long as they make money. Bitcoin is not a threat to the financial system. I think banks would love to loan you 1 Bitcoin so you can pay them 2 BTC back. Sounds like a great deal, doesn't it? In fact, with Bitcoin, every transaction is monitored, and anonymous payments are not possible anymore. If you can't make money on Bitcoin, you can still make money on some altcoins (hidden gems). Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
142
The Boredom Stage of Trading - Why Most Traders Quit HereGood morning, all, thank you all for coming today. Today we will be looking into the “ Boredom ” Phase of trading, and why most new traders quit because of it. Lets begin. What Is the Boredom stage during Trading? Boredom in trading is the stage where the excitement goes away, but the results have not arrived yet. You are no longer a beginner filled with hype, joy and excitement. You are aware of, and understand the basics, you have a strategy, and you know what you should be doing. Yet progress feels slow , repetitive , and unrewarding . There are less trades, fewer emotional highs, and long stages of patiently waiting. This is where trading begins to feel boring , and for many traders, boredom feels like failure, it feels like they are failing since they are not “ doing anything. ” This phase is not a sign you are doing something wrong it is a sign you are doing something right . How the Boredom stage Affects Traders Boredom secretly ruins traders because it does not feel dangerous. During this period, traders will often: • Start forcing trades just to feel active or “ alive ” like they are doing something. • Break rules out of impatience ( breaking their own system ) • Abandon strategies that are working ( same as above ) • Chase excitement instead of probability ( they seek the 100x return ) • Confuse “ no trades ” with “ no progress ” ( If you follow your system and wait, you are making progress ) The market rewards patience, but boredom pushes traders toward action. This creates losses, frustration, and eventually self-doubt. ( Which no one wants ) Many traders do not fail because they lack knowledge or skill. They fail because they cannot tolerate stillness. ( They psychology weakens when they face boredom. ) Why the stage Phase Occurs The boredom phase takes place when trading becomes process-driven instead of emotion-driven. ( It becomes mechanical ) Early trading is exciting because: • Everything feels new • Wins feel euphoric • Losses feel catastrophic • The market feels fast and you feel uncertain • You are eager to learn more As you improve, your trading becomes: • More selective and tight • More rule-based and systematic like • Slower and quieter ( calm ) • Less emotionally stimulating This shift removes chaos, but it also removes excitement. The market hasn’t changed. You have. And most people mistake this emotional flatline as a sign that something is missing. ( This is where “ The market rewards patience ” comes in. The market rewards those who wait. ) How to Overcome the Boredom stage The key to overcoming boredom is understanding that trading is not meant to entertain you. ( It is just like a 9-5, you must follow rules, a system. Just in your own routine. ) Practical ways to handle this phase: • Reduce screen time once your plan is complete. ( Do not over trade ) • Focus on execution quality, not trade quantity. ( Quality over quantity ) • Track rule-following instead of PnL. ( Did you follow your system? ) • Journal boredom-triggered decisions. ( Losses from impatience? ) • Accept that waiting is part of the job. ( Strengthen your mind by waiting. ) Professionals do not trade more and when they are bored, they trade less. The goal is not to feel engaged and hyped up. The goal is to remain consistent and disciplined. Why the Boredom stage Is a Filter, not a Problem The boredom stage exists to separate traders who want excitement from traders who want results. ( Splits Gamblers from Real Traders ) Most people quit and give up here because: • There is no longer any dopamine . • Progress feels slow, painful or invisible. • Social media makes others look “ active ” when it is actually not. • Patience feels unproductive since the mind is sitting “ idle .” But this stage is where real traders are built. If you can: • Follow rules without excitement. ( Follow your system ) • Sit through days with no trades. ( Accept the process of waiting ) • Trust your edge without constant validation. ( Ensure to backtest to prove this. ) • Stay disciplined when nothing happens. ( Do not give in to FOMO. ) You have already passed a major psychological barrier. The boredom phase is not a dead end it is a gateway that sits at the end of a long run. Those who quit here were never meant to last. Those who stay quietly move closer to consistency and mental freedom. Final Thoughts Every profitable trader has survived the boredom phase. Most failed traders quit during it because of weak psychology. If trading feels boring, repetitive, and uneventful, that is good. That means emotions are leaving and structure is taking its place. The market does not reward excitement. It rewards endurance, patience, discipline, consistency and proper risk management.
Education
by King_BennyBag
88
Bull Market 2023–2025: Final Results (27.12.25)Public history, responsibility, and the environment without which you don’t belong in the market First of all, I want to thank @TradingView In 2025, I received the WIZARD badge. This is not just a label — it is recognition of my contribution as an active member of the TradingView Community. For me, this matters not because of status, but because of responsibility. This badge means I have the ability to propose changes and improvements to the platform, and some of these proposals have already been implemented. I’m genuinely glad to be one of those community members who helps make TradingView better for everyone. Why TradingView is about responsibility, not social media I have been an active member of the TradingView Community for a long time, and I strongly believe this platform is fundamentally different from any other financial media space. First — the chart as the core tool of analytical thinking. Second — publications and the Play button, which lock ideas in time. Third — and most important — the impossibility of deleting published ideas. Fourth - indicators You cannot rewrite history here. You cannot erase mistakes. You cannot hide behind “the context has changed.” That is why I approach every single publication on TradingView with full responsibility. Why there is no noise or random content here I do not use TradingView the way many people use Twitter or Telegram. There are no: emotional reactions random thoughts posts made for reach or hype As of December 2025, my audience consists of 132,000 followers, and I fully understand the responsibility that comes with that. Yes, every publication is not financial advice. But for myself, I set a clear internal rule: every idea must be logical, verifiable, and honest. Why the timeline starts in 2023 I intentionally start this review from 2023 because that is when the bottom of the previous cycle was forming. At the time, it was not obvious to the majority of the market: - fear was at its peak - trust was minimal - negative narratives dominated I’ve been in the market for a long time and have lived through multiple full cycles. This Bitcoin cycle was my third, and I consider it the most professionally executed one so far. Each cycle is different: - different narratives - different audiences - different speed But market logic and crowd psychology repeat. Publications that cannot be adjusted after the fact Back in late 2022, an idea was published: Bitcoin cycles + logistic curve = New bull run 2023–2025. This was done before the move, not after. Every marker you see on this chart represents a public idea published in real time on TradingView. It’s important to highlight: - all key ideas were LONG - there were no public SHORT ideas during the bull phase Why? Because in a true bull market, speculating against the trend makes no sense. The upside potential always outweighs the logic of catching small pullbacks. Timing and the end of the cycle If you open each publication, you’ll see: - market phases - time-based expectations - structural projections On most higher-timeframe ideas, the end of the bull market was publicly marked in red. My key time reference was stated in advance — September 2025. September 2025: when most still believed in continuation Starting in September 2025, while market euphoria was still present, I began publishing ideas stating that: - the bull market was over - positions were closed - Bitcoin was forming a reversal - the market was entering a bull trap phase - you were warned in advance These ideas were based not on emotions, but on market structure, cycles, and psychology. Experience, no FOMO, and a mature position After years in the market, I have zero FOMO. I don’t worry about: - missing a coin - missing a narrative - not participating in every move The market is: - fast - volatile - heavily manipulated You cannot be everywhere. The core task of the market is simple: buy low — sell high. That’s exactly what I’ve been doing for over 12 years, with more than 10,000 hours spent in the market. The reality of the modern market Today’s market consists of: - funds - corporations - algorithms - quantitative strategies On lower timeframes and chaotic moves, retail traders are simply outmatched. The gap between emotional decision-makers and those who operate with structure, data, and discipline will only continue to widen. If you are in the market — you must be in the environment Here I’ll be as direct as possible. If you are in financial markets, if you plan to continue trading, if you want to survive and adapt — you must be part of a strong community. A lone trader in today’s market is easy prey. Over the years, a community of like-minded traders has formed around me — people who: approach the market systematically - discuss scenarios - analyze entries and exits - stay connected during difficult periods I share my public ideas for free, and that remains a core principle. But if you truly intend to stay in this market, you need an environment, feedback, and shared logic. What you do next is your decision. Trading is a marathon Trading is not a sprint. It’s a marathon. Sometimes the best position is no position. Sometimes the best trade is the one you didn’t take. Patience, waiting, and discipline are skills — without them, you don’t belong in this market. The current moment and what’s ahead At the moment, crypto is in a phase where I take very few trades. Some positions are already open — at predefined levels, within a structured risk framework. I’m not leaving financial markets: - crypto - Forex - equities - tokenized assets - gold - oil Instruments change. Principles don’t. In conclusion If this chart receives 300 likes, I will publish a separate post outlining: - goals - scenarios - positioning for 2026. Wishing everyone clarity, discipline, and a cold mind. May 2026 be better than 2025. And may there be peace on our planet. Yours, EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
36
BTCUSDT Long: Buyers Defend Channel Support, Upside in FocusHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged consolidation phase defined by a broad range, BTC established multiple internal breakouts, highlighting volatility but no clear directional dominance. This range acted as an accumulation zone, with price repeatedly reacting around key horizontal levels. From the lower boundary of the range, BTC formed a clear pivot low, which marked the start of a bullish recovery and shift in short-term market structure. Currently, BTC is holding above the Demand Zone around 86,800, which aligns with prior range support and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This area has already shown buyer reaction, reinforcing it as a key level for continuation. Price is now attempting to push higher toward the upper boundary of the channel. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Demand Zone and respects the ascending channel support, the bias remains bullish. I expect buyers to defend this area and attempt a move back toward the 89,000 Supply/Resistance Zone as the first target. A clean breakout and acceptance above this level would confirm bullish continuation and open the path toward higher targets within the channel. A breakdown below demand would invalidate the long scenario. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
34
BTC/USDT: Compression Phase Inside a Broad StructureHi! Market Structure: Bitcoin is currently trading inside a well-defined symmetrical triangle, characterized by a series of lower highs and higher lows. This structure reflects price compression and balance, not trend continuation. Key Boundaries: Price continues to respect both the descending upper boundary and the ascending lower boundary, confirming the validity of the pattern. No directional breakout has occurred yet. Price Behavior: Recent moves remain corrective, with repeated rejections from the upper boundary near 88.3k–88.5k, while buyers defend the rising support around 87k–86.8k. Scenarios: Bullish: A confirmed breakout and acceptance above the upper boundary would favor upside expansion. Bearish: Rejection and loss of the lower boundary would shift momentum to the downside.
by melikatrader94
37
What I Expect from 2026Scenarios • Markets • Levels • Positioning First of all, I want to thank everyone for the activity under my previous post . More than 300 likes are not just numbers to me — they show that you read, think, and ask the right questions. These are exactly the people who motivate me to keep sharing my perspective. I don’t write for algorithms. I write for those who want real results and understand that results come through process, discipline, and the right environment. This text is not about fast growth or guessing the bottom. It is about patience, structure, and working during moments of maximum pain. In 2026, the market will be selective: opportunities will become fewer, and the cost of mistakes will be higher. This is exactly when an advantage is built — by those who can wait and work systematically, not alone. ___________________________________________ Context and Philosophy of 2026 2026 is a year of reassessment and awareness. A year when the market stops rewarding haste and illusions. We are in a bearish phase, and according to my calculations, it will likely last almost until the end of the year. This is not a time for emotions or hope — it is a time for learning and preparing for the next cycle. It’s important to accept a simple truth: the market does not owe you opportunities every day. No trade is also a position. I’ve been in financial markets since 2009 and in crypto since 2016. I’ve seen how every cycle looks different but ends the same way — disappointment and denial. That is exactly where the market pushes the majority in 2026. ___________________________________________ What Really Happened in 2025 2025 became the year of maximum institutional involvement. ETFs, derivatives, structured products, and complex instruments fully integrated crypto into the global financial system. And the global financial market is: - highly competitive - professional - cold and calculated This is not a place for belief — this is where capital positions, hedges, and extracts liquidity. Crypto remains a young industry, but it is already playing by adult rules. Many failed to understand this — and paid for it. ___________________________________________ The Main Mistake Most Will Make in 2026 Two things: 1. Believing in a quick reversal 2. Increasing risk in an attempt to “win it back” Hope is the most expensive emotion in the market. The market does not pay for hope — it pays for timing, structure, and execution. Most people will leave not because the market is “bad,” but because they will break psychologically. I’ve seen it many times: different cycles, different faces — the same mistakes. If you stay in the market, you must relearn it every cycle. ___________________________________________ Macro Environment and Market Conditions Key factors I’m watching: - interest rates - regulation - capital flow direction - narratives that attract new liquidity Regulation is neither an enemy nor a savior — it is reality. Licenses, requirements, and rules are shaping a market that is becoming part of the global financial system. 2026 is a year of redistribution and accumulation, not growth. Liquidity is fragmented. There are too many projects, too many tokens, and not enough capital for everyone. Stablecoins are growing, but still not enough to “feed” the entire market. ___________________________________________ Altcoins in 2026: My View My position is strict and honest: Most altcoins face collapse, cleansing, and increased regulatory pressure. The reasons are clear: - an excessive number of tokens - fragmented attention - constant unlock pressure - funds sitting in long-term profit - lack of sustainable economics There will be exceptions — but they will be rare. Paradoxically, memecoins (despite my skepticism) did one useful thing: they forced people to learn on-chain analysis, search for inefficiencies, and track capital flows. What remains structurally alive RWA (tokenized real-world assets) infrastructure DeFi v2 as an alternative to the traditional system At the same time, we must be honest: potential returns in altcoins are structurally declining compared to previous cycles. ___________________________________________ Bitcoin — Base Scenario for 2026 and Key Levels My base scenario is continued pressure and bottom formation. Capitulation will affect: - traders - investors - miners - funds - large corporations The market will be cleansed of large holders. This process is always painful — and always necessary. Key ranges - base: 48,000 – 74,000 - extreme zones: 38,000 – 46,000 My operating logic - the first meaningful accumulation zone is around 64k - limit orders are placed lower - buying only during moments of panic - no rush, no emotions There is an old saying: “ We enter the market when there is blood in the streets .” This is not drama — this is how asymmetric advantage is built. Short squeezes are possible, but they will be short-lived. Markets do not trend higher on disappointment. In my view, the final deep phase of this cycle and the shift toward early bullish conditions align closer to September 2026. ___________________________________________ Other Markets and Diversification One of the biggest mistakes crypto traders make is thinking the world ends with crypto. Blockchain is infrastructure — not the entire market. That’s why in 2026 I diversify across: - gold - oil - indices - stocks - and only very selectively crypto assets Other markets are: - more liquid - more structured - often cleaner in execution S&P 500 So far there are no clear reversal signals, but after new highs I expect correction or stagnation. The reasons are obvious: the AI bubble, debt pressure, and liquidity concentration. Gold A historical safe haven. The trend remains intact. My long-term target is $6,000 ± $1,000. DXY Weakening is possible, but the dollar is likely to maintain dominance due to digitization and global settlement demand. Oil One of my key instruments. Expensive oil is not beneficial for the US, and I see no strong reasons for sustainably high prices in the short term. ___________________________________________ Narratives Beyond Crypto The world is reaching the limits of energy supply. Energy is becoming a strategic advantage. Those who produce electricity efficiently will be in a strong position. Alternative energy sources and the entire energy chain will play a key role. AI is not just hype. AI will drive breakthroughs in medicine, energy, data analysis, and financial markets. Global instability is no longer a forecast — it is a condition. We are moving toward a reset of global processes and agreements. ___________________________________________ My Trading Approach in 2026 - more cash - short-biased trading when structure allows - only selective entries - waiting for panic - minimized risk If there is no setup - there is no trade. That is discipline. And one more thing: if you are tired - rest. The market will not disappear. Your capital and your mindset are your main assets. ___________________________________________ Personal Commitment and Community In 2026, I will relaunch the Academy and deeply integrate AI tools. For members of my community, the Academy will be free under specific conditions. Discipline is not motivation. Discipline is the ability to follow a plan regardless of emotions. Growth is slow alone. It is faster in the right environment. I am building a strong trading community where: - thinking evolves - on-chain capital flows are analyzed - portfolios with limit orders are structured - experience is shared, not illusions Some of these portfolios have already started activating, and one position is around +15%. This is not luck — this is systematic work. ___________________________________________ One Honest Question Ask yourself honestly: Are you here to prove something to the market — or to achieve a sustainable result? Because results only come through self-study, discipline, and a repeatable process. ___________________________________________ Final Thoughts Markets reward preparation, not urgency. Give the market time. Give the system time. If you are still here in 2026 — you are already ahead of most. The main task is simple: stay in the game. Build positions when it hurts. Grow when it is quiet. Best regards EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
21
BTC - Where the 2026 Bottom Might Actually FormLet me be clear from the start. This is not about calling a bottom today. It’s about comparing this cycle to the previous ones. 📉 From a structural point of view: Price is trading below the key moving average, and as long as that MA is not reclaimed to the upside, the trend remains bearish. At the same time, momentum confirms this view. The MACD has flipped bearish, which historically marks the transition from expansion into a corrective cycle. In previous BTC cycles, the real bottom never formed until both conditions were met: - MACD flips back bullish - Price reclaims the moving average Until that happens, we stay in a bearish or corrective regime, even if price bounces short term. 🧠 Now zooming out. When you compare this structure to prior cycles, Bitcoin tends to: • Correct deeply • Find support at prior major resistance • Reset momentum near long term demand • Then flip trend again On this chart, that area is very clear. The green zone around 55k to 65k aligns with: • Previous cycle highs • Strong historical demand • The lower boundary of the long-term rising structure If history rhymes again, this is where we would expect: • Momentum to stabilize • MACD to start curling bullish • Price to eventually reclaim the moving average ⏳ Timing wise , based on previous cycles, this process usually takes time. That points toward late 2026, roughly October and beyond, not before. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
41
Bitcoin Christmas Rally? $90K/More in SightBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), as I previously expected , has risen to its initial target and has broken above the important level of $88,200, which is a positive sign for continued bullish momentum. At the moment, Bitcoin is striving to break through the resistance zone($89,230-$87,720). From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that Bitcoin is completing microwave B of the main wave Y. I expect that after breaking the resistance zone($89,230-$87,720), Bitcoin could rise at least up to the significant level of $90,300, approaching the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage and the 50_SMA(Daily). If BTC breaks above the 50_SMA(Daily), we can anticipate even further gains for Bitcoin. The question is: do you think Bitcoin will hold above $90,000, or will it begin to decline again? And finally, a little note about Christmas: I hope you enjoy a wonderful holiday season with your loved ones, and let’s see how Bitcoin performs as we head into the new year! Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $86,690-$85,990 First Target: $90,161 Second Target: $90,721 Third Target: 50_SMA(Daily) Stop Loss(SL): $86,850 Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Long
by pejman_zwin
72
Bitcoin – The Big Liquidity Hunt is Coming!Bitcoin's price is controlled by banks and governments. They won't allow the price to move until they have acquired the liquidity they need. Before trading, you should always think about where most retail traders have placed their stop losses. They don't care if you lose; they're after liquidity. But if you can identify these liquidity pools, you can ride along with the big banks and institutions and profit. If technical analysis accounts for 20%, psychology is 80% of the story. The timeframe for this analysis is 4 hours On the chart, we've marked liquidity pools places where most traders have set their stops with $$$ signs. The price has been ranging in this zone for 36 days. What happens each time? Liquidity pools form, these pools get swept, and then the price moves. Now, the liquidity pools we've marked at the lows in red have not yet been swept, and most traders in long positions have their stops just below these two lows. The range from 83,764 to 82,412 is exactly where long traders’ stop losses will be hit, short positions will increase in size, and it is the best zone for a trend reversal. There are many traders with a bearish view on Bitcoin but guess what happens if these two lows are hit? Longs get stopped out, traders in short positions either add to their size or new shorts join in—and that is exactly where the price will bounce back upwards. Trading is not hard or complicated if you have a professional coach. If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you. This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here.
by behdark
51
BTCUSDT: Holding 87,300 Support Ahead of a 89,000 RetestHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup. Market Analysis BTCUSDT is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting a sustained bullish structure after breaking out of the prior consolidation range. Earlier in the chart, price spent significant time moving sideways inside a broad range, capped by a resistance zone near 89,000 and supported by demand below. A decisive breakout from the range confirmed a shift toward bullish market conditions. Recently, BTC pushed back into the 89,000 Resistance Zone, where selling pressure appeared again. The current reaction from resistance looks corrective, not impulsive, suggesting temporary rejection rather than a trend reversal. Price is consolidating just above support, indicating compression between support and resistance within the bullish channel. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario remains bullish as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 87,300 Support Zone. Continued defense of this area could lead to another attempt to test the 89,000 Resistance Zone. A clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm continuation within the channel and open the door for further upside. However, on the flip side, a decisive breakdown below the support zone and channel structure would weaken the bullish bias and signal a deeper corrective move toward lower levels. For now, price remains constructive, with buyers defending structure while BTC consolidates below resistance. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
23
BTCUSDT: Range Compression Signals Potential Break Above $90,100Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup. Market Analysis BTCUSDT is trading within a broader consolidation after a strong bearish impulse earlier in the chart. Following the sell-off, price found a key support base around the 87,300 Support Zone, from which buyers stepped in and stabilized the market. Since then, Bitcoin has been moving inside a series of well-defined ranges, indicating compression and balance between buyers and sellers. Structurally, price is capped by a descending triangle resistance line, while at the same time respecting a rising trend line from below. This creates a tightening structure, suggesting a potential directional move ahead. Currently, BTC is consolidating above the support zone and just below the 90,100 Resistance Zone, which has repeatedly rejected price in recent attempts. The latest pullbacks remain shallow and corrective, showing that sellers are struggling to push price back below support. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 87,300 Support Zone, the structure remains constructive and biased toward a bullish resolution. A sustained hold above support could allow price to build momentum for another push toward the 90,100 Resistance Zone. A clean breakout and acceptance above this resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside. However, a decisive breakdown below the support zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and shift focus toward lower levels. For now, BTC remains compressed between support and resistance, with buyers defending structure and pressure building for a potential breakout. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
22
BTCUSDT Bulls Defend Range Support, Eyes on $90,500Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT previously broke down from a descending triangle structure, confirming bearish control and leading to a strong impulsive move lower. After this decline, price found a base and transitioned into a broad range, where buyers and sellers have been in relative balance. Multiple internal breakouts within the range highlight volatility but no clear trend dominance during this phase. Recently, price bounced from the lower boundary of the range and the rising Support Line, showing clear buyer reaction and a short-term shift in momentum. BTC is now trading above the key 87,300 Support Zone, which aligns with previous range support and a recent breakout level. The latest move higher looks constructive, with price attempting to challenge the upper part of the range. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 87,300 support area, the bias remains mildly bullish. A sustained move higher could lead to a retest of the 90,500 Resistance and TP1 near the range highs. Acceptance above resistance would open the door for further upside expansion. However, failure to hold support and a breakdown back into the lower range would invalidate the bullish scenario and favor renewed consolidation or downside. For now, the focus remains on support holding and reaction near resistance. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
21
BTCUSDT Above Support - $88,900 Resistance in PlayHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (1H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT is trading within a broader ascending channel, confirming an overall bullish structure despite recent volatility. After a sharp drop earlier on the chart, price formed a clear base and started to grow, establishing higher lows along the channel’s support line. This recovery phase shows that buyers remain active and are defending key levels. Price then moved into a consolidation area between a clearly defined Buyer Zone (support) and Seller Zone (resistance), creating a range-like environment inside the channel. Multiple breakouts and false moves around the Seller Zone highlight strong supply pressure in this area, while repeated defenses of the Buyer Zone confirm solid demand. The dashed midline reflects interim structure guiding price action within the channel. Currently, BTC is holding above the Support Level around the Buyer Zone (~87,300), while facing overhead Resistance near the Seller Zone (~88,900). The projected move suggests a potential bounce from support toward resistance, with TP1 aligned near the upper resistance area inside the channel. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the ascending support line, the bias remains bullish, with a move toward the resistance and TP1 as the primary objective. A strong rejection from resistance could lead to further consolidation. However, a clean breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a deeper pullback. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
22
How Overconfidence Destroys Profitable TradersHow Overconfidence Destroys Profitable Traders Understanding Overconfidence in Trading Welcome everyone to another article. One of the most dangerous stages a trader can walk into is not fear… but overconfidence. (EGO) Overconfidence in trading is essentially ego. However, there is still an important difference: - Confidence is a real belief built on proof, statistics, and discipline. - Overconfidence is an inflated belief in your ability beyond the proof. This is driven by ego. Many traders do not fail because they do not know enough. They fail because at some point, they believe they know enough or know “everything.” What Overconfidence appears as in Trading: A trader builds a system. ( yay! ) They go on a clean winning streak maybe 10, 12, even 15 profitable trades in a row. At this point, the trader begins to think and assume: “ I’ve cracked the code. ” - Risk gets increased . - Position sizes get bigger . - Rules start to bend . Confidence continues grow until it crosses a dangerous path where belief is no longer supported by data, statistics and proof. Reality eventually steps in. You will never again feel as confident as you did during your first major winning streak when it looked like the market finally made sense and success was “ figured out. ” That feeling is exactly what traps traders. Overconfidence WILL break Risk Management Overconfidence destroys a trader by slowly dismantling their risk management, their system, their discipline, their psychology and their consistency. It rarely happens all at once. First: - “ I’ll just risk a little more this time. ” - “ This setup looks perfect. ” - “ I’m on a winning streak. ” Over time, the trader begins to: • Ignore position sizing rules ( Too many LOTS or contracts ) • Move stop losses (Increases risk) • Add to losing trades ( Does not accept the original loss ) • Trade larger to “maximize opportunity” (Stick to what you can afford to lose ) The trader thinks and believes the system will continue to work, because it worked before. But markets do not reward belief, they reward discipline. (I have mentioned this many times in my previous posts.) Once risk management breaks, even a profitable system becomes dangerous and can lead to zero profits, or even down to negatives. Overconfidence Blocks Positive criticism and continuous Learning There is no such thing and there will never be a 100% perfecto trading system/strategy. Losses are part of the game. Overconfident traders struggle when reality does not meet their expectations. Instead of adapting to the market by adjusting their strategy they: - Resist feedback (Or consider any feedback as hate/negative criticism) - Ignore changing market conditions (Consolidation, flat lining, barcoding etc) - Refuse to admit the system is underperforming (Bad performance & results) - Believe the problem can’t be them (“It’s not the system, it’s the computer!”) But Why…? Well because… their mind keeps rewinding the dopamine high from when everything worked perfectly and the win rate was 99% They only remember the wins, and “ GREEN ” $$$ %%% not the probability. The exact moment a trader believes they “can’t be wrong,” learning comes to a halt. And in trading, when learning stops, losses accelerate, revenge trading increase, risk management collapses, and consistency becomes scrambled. Overconfidence changes Traders into > Gamblers Overconfidence does not just cause losses it can also change behavior. Frustration from unexpected losses turns into: - Anger - Impatience - Forced trades - Revenge trading Rules get ignored. Emotions take control. The trader may still look like a trader, but they are acting like a gambler. The most dangerous part? They still believe they are right… Example: How Overconfidence Destroyed a Profitable Trader Let’s look at Bobby. Bobby was a profitable trader. A very successful one in his 4th year of trading. He discovered what he believed was a 99% win-rate system. The first month was incredible. The second month was just as good. Cash flowing in, heaps of green. By the third month, losses started to appear. Instead of falling back, taking a breather and reassessing , Bobby doubled down. Continuing to trade the same system despite clear signs of underperformance. He was no longer focusing on perfect executions and setups, he was chasing the high. Losses turned into frustration . Frustration turned into anger . Anger turned into impatience . Soon Bobby was: • Forcing trades • Revenge trading • Ignoring risk management Bobby refused to take responsibility. “It was my internet.” “My computer lagged.” “My family distraccted me.” The excuses piled up, but the account kept shrinking. Bobby did not fail because of the system. Bobby failed because ego stopped him from adapting to the market and adjusting his system. Markets Will Always Humble Ego Markets will humble traders in ways they never expect. No matter how experienced you are, there is always something else to learn. Trading is not a destination, it is a constant process of adaptation towards the market. Traders who believe they “know everything” will always be reminded by the market that They. Do. Not. Overconfidence doesn’t end trading careers immediately. But it slowly erodes them trade by trade turning it into mental torture. Final Thoughts Confidence is necessary to trade.. But Ego is fatal! The very moment a trader believes they have cracked the code is often the moment their decline begins. Stay humble. Respect risk. Let statistics, not emotion, guide your decisions. Because in trading, the market doesn’t punish ignorance it punishes ego.
Education
by King_BennyBag
34
Bitcoin - Compression Before Expansion?⚔️Bitcoin has been absorbing pressure above a rising base , with price holding firmly above the ascending blue trendline. Despite the prior selloff, bears are no longer able to push price lower, signaling structural strength building beneath the surface. Price is now pressing against a key resistance band. This zone is acting as the final barrier between consolidation and continuation. A clean break and hold above this area would shift control decisively back to the bulls and open the door for a move toward the 100K psychological level and beyond.📈 🏹Until then, the bias remains cautiously bullish , with buyers clearly defending dips and preparing for a potential expansion phase. Is this the calm before Bitcoin’s next leg higher?🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
11
Unlock MACD Mastery: Catch Trends Before They ExplodeThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. It consists of: MACD Line: 12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA Signal Line: 9-period EMA of the MACD Line Histogram: MACD Line minus Signal Line MACD helps spot buy/sell signals, trend strength, and reversals – essential for Forex, Crypto, and Stocks. How MACD Works (Quick Setup) Add MACD(12,26,9) on TradingView. Positive histogram = bullish momentum 📊. Negative = bearish 📉. Key Strategies 1-Line Crossovers Bullish: MACD crosses above Signal → Buy signal. Bearish: MACD crosses below Signal → Sell signal. 2-Divergences Bullish: Price lower lows, MACD higher lows → Potential reversal up. Bearish: Price higher highs, MACD lower highs → Potential reversal down. 3-Zero Line Crossovers Above zero = Bullish trend strength. Below zero = Bearish trend strength. Real Examples Right Now (Dec 27, 2025) Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) *** In the chart which you see, I I have highlighted key points including MACD Line, Signal line, Crossover, Divergence and Histograms. *** ⚠️As you can see in the chart, MACD send the bearish signal in BTC'S ATH (All Time High) on around 6th October. Pro Tips Combine with RSI or support/resistance for confirmation. In trending markets like Stocks, focus on crossovers; in ranging markets like Forex, use divergences. Adjust periods for volatility (e.g., MACD(5,35,5) for Crypto). Always backtest – don't trade blind! Level up your charts with MACD today and ride the trends! What's your go-to MACD setup? Share below! 👇
Education
by Master_Hunter
18
Algorithmic Trading vs Manual TradingWhy the Edge Is Shifting And Why 2026 May Be a Turning Point As this year comes to an end, it’s the perfect moment to slow down, zoom out, and ask an uncomfortable but necessary question: Are we trading the markets — or are the markets trading us? Whether you are in your first year of trading or have spent a decade studying charts, there comes a moment of clarity where you ask yourself: “If I know what to do… why don’t I always do it?” Beginners ask this after their first emotional mistake. Experienced traders ask it after their hundredth. The market does not punish ignorance as harshly as it punishes inconsistency. Most traders don’t fail because they lack knowledge. They fail because they are human. We all know this pattern: The entry is clear but hesitation creeps in The stop is defined but gets adjusted “just a little” The trend is obvious yet profits are taken too early The system says don’t trade but emotions say this time is different At the end of the day, trading is not a battle against the market. It’s a battle against ourselves. And that’s exactly where algorithmic (systematic) trading enters the game. Not as a shortcut, not as a holy grail, but as an evolution of execution. Now, with AI evolving rapidly and tools becoming accessible to retail traders, something big is happening: The same systematic edge institutions used for years is now available to individuals. That raises a powerful question: Can a system (without emotion, instinct, or fear) trade better than a human? After spending the last 6–8 months deeply immersed in algorithmic trading, intense backtesting, rule-building, and system refinement, I came to a conclusion: Algorithmic trading is not just the future, it’s the logical evolution of trading itself. And I strongly believe 2026 will be a major turning point. Let’s break this down properly. Manual Trading (Human Trading) → The Strengths & The Silent Killers Manual trading is where almost everyone starts and for good reason. What humans do exceptionally well Pattern recognition Context awareness and regime interpretation Macro, narrative, and sentiment understanding Adaptation during abnormal market conditions For experienced traders, discretion often becomes earned intuition. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: The better you get, the more painful your mistakes become. Why? Because you know better yet still break your own rules. Humans are great at ideas. But trading success doesn’t come from ideas. It comes from execution → repeated thousands of times. And this is where humans struggle most. The Complete List of Human Trading Failures (The Real Reason Most Traders Lose) Regardless of experience, humans share the same failure modes. Here’s the part most people avoid talking about. Emotional failures Fear when price approaches entry Greed when price runs in profit Panic after one losing trade Overconfidence after a winning streak Revenge trading to “get it back” Execution & discipline failures Moving stop losses too early Widening stops to avoid realizing a loss Taking profit early because “it’s green now” Ignoring your system once emotions kick in Changing rules mid-trade Cognitive biases (even in professionals) Confirmation bias (seeing only what supports your bias) Recency bias (overweighting the last trade) Anchoring to entry price Counter-trading the trend because price “feels extended” Lifestyle & state-based issues Trading tired Trading stressed Trading distracted Trading emotionally impacted by life events The classic question every trader has asked: “Why did I take profit so early when the trend was obvious?” Or: “Why did I counter-trade when the moving averages clearly showed downside momentum?” These aren’t skill problems. They are human problems. The Hard Truth: Trading Is an Execution Game Markets reward: Consistency Repetition Risk control Statistical edge They do not reward: Creativity during execution Emotional intelligence in drawdowns Smart excuses Execution quality determines outcomes and execution is precisely where humans are weakest. Algorithmic Trading → What Changes When Rules Take Control Algorithmic trading removes the weakest link in trading: The trader. A system: Doesn’t feel fear, stress, fatigue, or boredom Doesn’t reinterpret rules mid-trade Doesn’t revenge trade Doesn’t move stops Doesn’t second-guess Doesn’t hesitate It follows rules. Every single time. Key advantages of algorithmic trading Processes multiple data points simultaneously Executes instantly during fast price action Trades 24/7 without fatigue Applies identical risk rules every trade Can be objectively tested and measured There is no emotional deviation. And that alone is a massive edge. “But Humans Have Instinct” — The Big Myth Instinct is just pattern recognition shaped by experience. And patterns can be quantified. If a trader can explain why they take a trade that logic can be turned into rules. And rules can be executed better by machines. Win Rate Reality — How High Can It Really Go? When I began researching existing algo traders: Some had ~60% win rates with solid returns Some reached 70–80% That sparked a question I wrote down and circled: “Is a 90% win rate even possible?” So I tested. Started with swing trading systems Moved to intraday Then scalping Simplified rules instead of complexity Tested only what truly mattered After months of backtesting and refinement: Achieving high-precision win rates of 80–90% across various asset classes, with drawdowns kept to an absolute minimum. It proved something deeper: Precision trading is possible when emotion is removed. Important Reality Check (Especially for Experienced Traders) High win rate does not automatically mean profitability. What truly matters: Risk-to-reward Drawdowns Expectancy Consistency Longevity over multiple market regimes A system must survive: Trending markets Ranging markets High volatility Low volatility Durability beats elegance. Always. The Real Future of Trading (2025–2030) Here’s how I see it: More traders will become system builders, not button clickers Manual trading will shift toward monitoring & strategy design AI will assist in: Data filtering Pattern discovery Optimization Hybrid approaches will dominate: Machines execute Humans supervise Manual trading won’t disappear but manual execution will. My Personal Conclusion Manual trading becomes validation Algorithmic trading becomes execution Humans decide what to trade Systems decide how to trade That’s evolution. Final Thoughts — End of Year Message 🎄 As the year comes to an end, take time to reflect: What worked What didn’t Where emotions interfered Where rules could replace decisions Trading is a long-term game. The goal isn’t to trade more it’s to trade better. Merry Christmas to everyone! May the next year bring clarity, discipline and growth — both in trading and in life. The edge is shifting. And those who adapt early will lead. Would love to hear your thoughts: Are you trading fully manual? Hybrid approach? Or already building systems? _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Education
by SiDec
23
Risk Management: The Art of Long-Term Survival Risk Management Imagine a hero standing at a crossroads with three paths. If he takes the road to the right, he will face a serious challenge with a difficulty level of 100. At the end of this path, however, he will be rewarded with five gold bars. The middle road leads to ten gold bars, but the hero will encounter not one, but three challenges along the way. Each of them is no less difficult than the one on the right-hand road. Taken together, their total difficulty amounts to 300. The left road involves a less demanding challenge with a difficulty of 60, but the reward is modest — only one gold bar. Which path would you choose if you were in the hero’s place? Now suppose the hero chose a balanced level of risk, but along the way he was bitten by a snake and never even reached the challenge. This is exactly what risk-taking in financial markets looks like. In the real world, risk is first and foremost the probability of loss. Risk is an inevitable consequence of the fact that the future is unknown. At any given moment, there are far more possible outcomes than those that ultimately materialize. It is precisely this gap — between the range of potential outcomes and the single realized result — that gives rise to risk. The future cannot be viewed as a predetermined or predictable script; it is a spectrum of possibilities that includes both favorable and unfavorable outcomes. An investor may estimate the range of the most likely scenarios and base their expectations of the future on them. However, even the most probable event offers no guarantee that it will actually occur. Risk comes in many forms, and the probability of loss is only one of them. Another important type is the risk of missed opportunities — the risk of taking too little risk. Staying on the sidelines can cause an investor to miss a recovery or a growth phase and ultimately drop out of the investment process altogether. Particularly destructive is the risk of selling at the bottom. In this case, the investor not only locks in losses but also forfeits the chance to participate in the subsequent recovery, which often leads to a permanent exit from the market. There are also risks associated with rare but catastrophic events. These risks may remain hidden for a long time, creating the illusion that a strategy is safe — until they suddenly materialize with severe consequences, as in the example of the hero and the snake. Risk has a contradictory and deceptive nature. It depends not only on the asset or the market itself, but also on the behavior of market participants. When people feel safe and confident, they tend to act less cautiously, and actual risk increases. Conversely, when risk is recognized and perceived as high, behavior becomes more restrained, and risk may decrease. Paradoxically, rising prices often increase risk, while falling prices can make an asset safer — even though most people intuitively perceive the opposite. Risk management is not a one-time action or a reaction to a crisis; it is a continuous process. Since it is impossible to know in advance when adverse events will occur, risk control must be present at all times, not only during periods of obvious threat. The essence of a sound approach is not the complete avoidance of risk, but its conscious acceptance, analysis, and limitation. An investor takes on risks they understand, can diversify, and are adequately compensated for. Ultimately, the investor’s task is to build an asymmetric outcome profile: to participate in upside when events unfold favorably, and to lose less when negative scenarios materialize. Such asymmetry is a hallmark of true skill and reflects a deep understanding of probability distributions, hidden risks, and acceptable loss limits. How to Form Your Own Risk Assessment in a Specific Situation To address this question, it is useful to turn to the work of Ed Seykota. One of his core ideas can be summarized as follows: Risk is not the size of a potential loss in itself, but the probability of that loss occurring given the current market structure. An important implication follows from this: The profit-to-loss ratio (risk/reward) is not an independent criterion of trade quality. The risk of a specific trade is determined by two key factors: the market environment, the distribution of profits and losses. However, the decisive element is not the absolute size of the potential profit, but the probability of achieving it, as defined by the market context Consider a situation where the potential profit is relatively small compared to the possible loss. From a formal risk/reward perspective, such a trade appears unattractive. But if the market conditions suggest that the probability of a positive outcome is high — for example, around 90% — the risk no longer appears unreasonable. In this case, the trade is justified not by the magnitude of the payoff, but by the stability of the probabilistic edge. An individual trade, taken in isolation, is meaningless. What matters is how similar situations play out over a large sample size. Even with a very high probability of success, risk becomes unjustified if: a negative scenario is capable of destroying a significant portion of the capital; or a single rare loss outweighs the cumulative result of many successful trades. This is why, within any robust system, probability and loss control must always go hand in hand. High probability without loss limitation is not trading — it is gambling. Unjustified Risk Suppose a trader manages to earn 5% on their account over the course of a month , while the benchmark — for example, the Nasdaq — delivers a return of 8% over the same period. What does this imply? To answer this, we turn to the concept of alpha . Alpha is a metric that measures how much a strategy’s or trader’s performance deviates from the benchmark return, after accounting for the level of market risk taken. If a trader engages in active intraday trading — assuming operational, market, behavioral, and tail risks — yet achieves a return lower than that of the benchmark, this indicates that risk was taken without adequate compensation . The critical issue is not the mere presence of risk, but the relationship between risk and outcome. By its nature, intraday trading involves high engagement, frequent decision-making, exposure to market noise, commissions, slippage, and psychological pressure. All of these factors increase the strategy’s total risk profile. If, despite this, the final result underperforms a passive benchmark, alpha becomes negative. This means that each unit of risk taken was not only unrewarded, but actually worsened the overall financial outcome. In such a case, alpha does more than simply indicate “underperformance relative to the market.” It highlights the inefficiency of the risk taken . The trader is effectively performing a more complex and uncertain task while achieving a result that could have been matched — or exceeded — through passive exposure, without active trading and its associated risks. This is precisely what constitutes unjustified risk: risk that does not increase expected returns and does not improve the distribution of outcomes. Thus, intraday trading with returns below the benchmark is an example of risk-taking without economic rationale. Alpha here serves not as a goal, but as a diagnostic tool. If alpha is negative, it indicates that the trading risk is not merely unjustified — it is value-destructive relative to a passive alternative. Integration into Trading 1. Market Context Comes Before the Trade In real trading, the first object of analysis is not the entry, not the stop, and not the take-profit — it is the state of the market itself. The key question you must answer is: Is there a recurring market situation here that historically shifts the probability in my favor? If the situation is not repeatable and lacks a clear internal logic, the trade is not considered at all — regardless of how attractive the risk/reward ratio may look. 2. Probability Matters More Than Potential Profit Once the situation has been identified, the focus shifts not to profit, but to the probability of the scenario playing out. In practical terms, this means: You must understand why the market is more likely to continue the move rather than reverse. The reason for entry should explain why continuation is more probable, based on the logic of market participants’ behavior — not merely be the result of a formal signal. Even if the potential profit is relatively small, a trade may still be justified if: The probability of success is consistently above random; The situation is reproducible over a large sample size. 3. Loss Is Defined in Advance — and Rigidly A loss is not something to “figure out along the way.” It is defined before entering the trade and is not revised in the hope that the market will “come back.” The core integration rule is simple: No single loss should be capable of damaging the integrity of the system This implies: Strictly limited risk per trade; No scenarios in which one unfavorable outcome wipes out the results of many successful trades. 4. Serial Thinking Instead of Evaluating Individual Trades True integration happens at the mental level. You stop evaluating trades in terms of “profit or loss.” Each trade is viewed as: One element within a series; One roll of the dice with a known probability bias. In practice, this leads to: No emotional reaction to a single loss; No euphoria from a single winning trade. 5. Trade Selection Instead of Increased Activity Integrating this approach almost always reduces the number of trades. You enter the market only when: The market provides a readable context; The scenario has a statistical edge; The risk is clearly defined in advance. If the market does not offer these conditions, you do not “look for trades” — you wait. 6. Evaluating Results by Process, Not by Money In real trading, success is not measured by daily PnL, but by: Adherence to the logic of situation selection; Discipline in loss limitation; Consistency of execution. A losing day can be a perfect day if all decisions were made within the framework of the system. Risk Management Framework in Investing Risk should be distributed not only across trading instruments, but also across sources of returns. A portfolio composed of assets dependent on a single growth scenario creates an illusion of diversification while remaining structurally fragile. True diversification implies exposure to different sectors, asset classes, and underlying economic processes. An important element of risk management is time diversification. Entering positions in stages reduces the risk of poor timing and mitigates the impact of short-term market fluctuations. Investing the full amount at a single price point turns an investment into a timing bet rather than a conviction in the underlying idea. Liquidity risk must also be taken into account. An asset that cannot be sold without a significant discount carries hidden danger. Liquidity matters not during calm periods, but during times of stress, when exiting a position may become critically important. Diversification also means being willing to keep part of the capital out of the market. Holding free liquidity reduces decision-making pressure and allows the investor to respond to opportunities that arise during periods of panic. Full capital deployment increases the risk of forced actions. Risk reduction becomes necessary when uncertainty rises. Increasing correlations between assets, changes in macroeconomic conditions, growing leverage, or excessive market optimism are signals to reassess portfolio structure. In such periods, capital preservation takes precedence over returns. An increase in investment risk is acceptable only when there is a sufficient margin of safety. Expanding exposure to higher-risk assets is justified when capital is growing, the investment horizon is long, and acceptable losses are clearly defined. An investor does not increase risk in an attempt to “catch up with the market.” Portfolio structure should reflect not only the investor’s expectations, but also their ability to withstand unfavorable periods. There is no universal allocation; however, practical guidelines help keep risk within manageable limits. Portfolio Structure Guidelines Low-risk allocation serves as the foundation and stabilizer of the portfolio. Typically, it represents 50–70% of total capital . This segment includes highly liquid assets with relatively predictable behavior. Its purpose is not to maximize returns, but to preserve capital and reduce overall portfolio volatility. Moderate-risk allocation usually accounts for 20–40% of the portfolio. These are assets with growth potential but without critical dependence on a single scenario. They generate the core long-term returns and absorb part of the market’s fluctuations. High-risk allocation is limited to 5–15% of capital. This segment includes assets with high volatility, asymmetric payoff potential, and an elevated probability of deep drawdowns. Losses in this zone must never threaten the integrity of the entire portfolio. If an asset can go to zero, its position size must be small enough for that outcome to be non-critical. Rebalancing and Capital Discipline Rebalancing is a mandatory component of risk management. As high-risk assets appreciate, their weight increases automatically, and part of the gains should be reallocated toward more stable segments. During market declines, the portfolio structure is reviewed based on changing conditions rather than emotional reactions. Increasing exposure to high-risk assets is appropriate only when capital is growing, the investment horizon is long, and potential losses are clearly understood. Reducing exposure becomes necessary during periods of heightened uncertainty, macroeconomic shifts, or declining personal risk tolerance. A portion of the portfolio should be held in cash. Cash is not inactivity or a missed opportunity — it is an asset that serves both defensive and strategic functions. Typically, cash represents 10–30% of the portfolio , depending on market conditions and uncertainty. During stable growth phases, it may sit near the lower end of this range. In periods of elevated volatility, uncertainty, or after prolonged market rallies, increasing the cash allocation becomes prudent. A cash position reduces overall portfolio risk and alleviates psychological pressure. Free liquidity allows decisions to be made calmly, without the need to sell assets under unfavorable conditions. The key principle lies not in finding the perfect percentage, but in maintaining the chosen structure . Discipline in risk allocation is more important than precision in initial calculations. A Risk Management Framework in Trading Risk management in trading does not begin with entering a trade; it begins with accepting the fact that any trade can end in a loss. A trader who is not internally aligned with this reality will inevitably violate their own rules. Accepting losses as a legitimate outcome is a fundamental condition for survival in the market. Position sizing is more important than the entry point. Even a strong idea loses its value if its size is disproportionate to potential adverse scenarios. A trader is not required to predict direction perfectly, but they are obligated to control the consequences of being wrong. Every trade must be “paid for” in advance. The potential loss must be known and psychologically accepted before entry. For one trader, an acceptable risk may be one percent of capital; for another, five percent. These figures are not universal truths — they reflect individual tolerance for uncertainty, trading style, and time horizon. What matters is not the number itself, but strict adherence to it. For a beginner trader, an acceptable risk per trade is typically a loss of no more than one to two percent of the account. This level of risk allows the trader to endure a series of losing trades without causing critical damage to capital and, just as importantly, to psychological stability. Under these conditions, the risk-to-reward ratio should be no less than 1:2 and, in more favorable setups, should approach 1:3. This means that the potential profit of a trade should be at least twice, and preferably three times, greater than the potential loss. With such an approach, a trader maintains a positive mathematical expectancy even when a portion of trades ends in losses. No single trade is decisive. The market is a sequence of attempts, not a single trial. Focusing on the outcome of an individual trade undermines discipline and distorts risk perception. Refusing to exit is also a decision — and it carries risk. Holding a losing position in the hope of a reversal is not a neutral action; it is an active choice to increase uncertainty. Periods of growth require no less caution than periods of decline. Confidence reinforced by a streak of successful trades often becomes the source of the largest losses. Growth in capital is a reason to reduce risk, not to increase it. The best kind of risk is one that allows for error. A strategy that leaves no room for mistakes is doomed in the long run. Resilience matters more than precision. The goal of risk management is not to eliminate losses, but to preserve the ability to continue trading. A trader wins not when losses are avoided, but when losses do not deprive them of the ability to take the next step. This post is based on our own experiences and research we've gathered from books and various platforms. Enjoy!
Education
by LonesomeTheBlue
9
Bitcoin - Can we hit the target at $91.000 This BTC technical analysis shows that Bitcoin is currently in a waiting phase. Price is trading around $87,500 and continues to move within a clearly defined range. Although a recent bounce has occurred, there is still a lack of a convincing impulse to define the next larger move. As a result, liquidity and fair value gaps remain the primary guiding factors. 4h bullish FVG Within the bullish 4-hour FVG, a significant amount of liquidity is still present. This makes the zone around $86,000 to $86,500 an interesting area for a potential retest. As long as this liquidity has not been fully collected, there remains a strong possibility that BTC revisits this region. A deeper test of this FVG could actually provide a stronger foundation for a subsequent upward move. 4h bearish FVG On the upside, the 4-hour bearish FVG forms a clear and strong resistance. This zone around $91,000 to $92,000 serves as the first logical target for a bounce originating from the lower range. There is substantial supply and prior rejection in this area, making a reaction highly likely. Only a convincing breakout would allow Bitcoin to shift focus toward higher price levels. FInal thoughts In summary, Bitcoin remains technically neutral to slightly bullish as long as the bullish 4-hour FVG continues to hold. The market appears to be gathering liquidity before committing to a direction. This BTC technical analysis emphasizes that patience is essential, as it first needs to become clear whether BTC will collect liquidity on the downside or move directly toward the bearish FVG for another test.
by Youriverse
37
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – Rejection From Premium ZoneHi! BTC was rejected from a higher-timeframe premium/supply zone near the top of the ascending channel, followed by a sharp bearish impulse. Price has now broken below the channel’s mid-structure and is consolidating under former support, which has turned into resistance. As long as BTC remains below this reclaimed level, the structure favors continuation to the downside. A corrective bounce toward the highlighted resistance zones is possible, but failure there may open the path toward the next liquidity levels around the lower dashed supports. Overall bias remains cautious to bearish unless price reclaims the broken channel with strength. First entry area: $87800 Second entry area: $88800 First target area: $85900 Second target area: $85100
Short
by melikatrader94
16
BTCUSDT Long: Demand Support Intact, Next Test at $89,000Hello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of BTCUSDT (4H) based on the current chart structure. After a strong bearish impulse, Bitcoin was trading inside a well-defined descending channel, reflecting sustained seller control. This bearish phase ended with a clear breakdown and a sharp reaction from a key pivot low, where buyers stepped in aggressively, marking an important structural shift. From this pivot point, BTC transitioned into a consolidation phase, forming a broad range, which signals balance between buyers and sellers after the impulsive move. Price respected both the upper and lower boundaries of this range multiple times, confirming it as a valid accumulation zone. Eventually, Bitcoin broke below the range briefly, but this move was quickly absorbed by buyers near the Demand Zone around 86,800, leading to a strong recovery and reclaim of structure. Currently, BTCUSDT is trading above the rising Demand Line, having confirmed a breakout and subsequent retest. Price is gradually moving higher toward the Supply Zone near 89,000, where multiple tests and rejections have already occurred. This area represents a key resistance, with sellers actively defending it, as shown by repeated reactions and failed continuation attempts. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 86,800 Demand Zone and respects the rising demand line, the bias remains bullish and corrective pullbacks are likely to attract buyers. A clean breakout and acceptance above the 89,000 Supply Zone would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for further upside. However, failure to hold demand and a breakdown below the demand line would invalidate the bullish scenario and shift focus back toward range lows. For now, price is compressing between demand and supply, and a decisive move is likely ahead. Manage your risk!
Long
by heniitrading
11
Bitcoin Today: A Controlled Pullback Within a Healthy UptrendHello, I’m Camila. By closely observing the Bitcoin chart over recent sessions, I see the market moving in line with a very familiar medium-term bullish scenario. After a clear rebound from the lows, price is now trading within a well-controlled bullish structure, forming higher lows along the way. This behavior confirms that underlying buying pressure remains intact, even though short-term momentum has begun to slow as price approaches key supply zones. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has not broken its bullish structure. The current fluctuations are better interpreted as trend-based corrections rather than signs of a reversal. When price was rejected at the upper resistance area, the market responded by pulling back to retest lower support levels—classic price action when larger players reassess the strength and commitment of buyers. On the fundamental side, the broader macro environment continues to keep Bitcoin in a state of balance. USD-related data and U.S. Treasury yields suggest that markets are still waiting for clearer guidance from the Fed regarding next year’s policy path. Elevated interest rates have slowed the short-term rotation back into risk assets. However, major financial media continue to highlight expectations of monetary easing in 2026, alongside quiet institutional accumulation, which provides meaningful support for Bitcoin at lower price levels. The key area I am watching closely in the near term is the 86,500 – 88,000 support zone. This level aligns with both the higher-low structure and the lower boundary of the current bullish formation. In healthy uptrends, the market often follows a familiar pattern: a pullback to support to test demand, followed by a decision on whether the trend is ready to expand further. As long as Bitcoin holds this zone and shows a clear buying response, the bullish structure remains fully intact. Wishing you successful and disciplined trading.
Long
by Camila_Roja
10
Perfect Entry Is Worthless Without a Proper ExitMost traders think the hardest part of a trade is finding the entry point But the market challenges a trader’s true character right after entering If you don’t know how to exit, even the best entry is just the beginning of a bigger mistake Hello✌️ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Bitcoin is showing signs of a 5% potential upside, aiming for a target of $93,000. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🧩 Overview Entering a trade only gives you permission to be in the market, not success Success is only defined when the trade is closed and the result is realized Over-focusing on entry often leads to neglecting the most critical part of the trade The market reacts to the final decision, not the beauty of the entry point 🧠 Psychology of Exiting The trader’s mind claims open profits as its own, making it hard to let go This attachment often delays logical exits Greed frequently disguises itself as patience or overconfidence While the market has no obligation to respect our emotions ⚖️ The Real Value of a Trade A good trade isn’t necessarily one with a perfect entry The true value is determined by how the trade is managed until the exit A poor exit can nullify even the best setups In contrast, a proper exit can save even an average entry 🎯 Professional Trading Perspective Professional traders know their exit plan before entering a trade They know where to take profit and when to accept a mistake This mental clarity significantly reduces trading pressure Predefined decisions neutralize emotional interference 🔥 Common Market Mistakes Most large losses result from changing the exit plan mid-trade Unfounded hope and fear of closing the trade are the main triggers The market does not need to convince the trader It is the trader who increases risk by delaying the exit 🧭 Consistency and Survival Consistency in exiting leads to consistency in results This stability strengthens confidence in the trading system When the exit is clear, the mind trades more freely Survival in the market comes from repeating correct behaviors 📝Summary Entry starts the journey, but exit defines the true destination of a trade 🛠 TradingView Tools and Features The Position Tool helps traders clearly visualize risk, reward, trade size, and exit points before entering, reducing emotional decisions Horizontal lines mark structural levels in the market and connect exits to defined areas rather than guesswork Alerts ensure exits follow the plan, reducing the need to constantly monitor the chart and lowering psychological stress 🚀Key Recommendations for the Market First, always define your exit before entering and stick to it once the trade begins Second, see exits as a tool for protecting capital, not as a sign of weakness or missed profit Third, once your exit triggers, consider the trade complete even if the market keeps moving ✨ Need a little love! We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please make sure to do your own research before investing, and review the disclaimer provided at the end of each post.
Education
by MadWhale
13