Get started

Bitcoin/Tether

No trades
OverviewNewsIdeasMindsTechnicalsSeasonalsMarkets

Market insights

Bitcoin - Bear flag, 74k confirmed! (warning, must see)Bitcoin has just completed its bearish flag formation. What now? The probability of going down is now around 70%, while the probability of going up is only 30%. Many times we see a bullish breakout of a bear flag. How does it look? Something like that: We see that for a bullish breakout, the bulls need to completely go above the flag's resistance, which is much harder than simply going down, especially in a strong bear market, like in this Bitcoin's case. Bitcoin's price and development are completely controlled by the banks and huge institutions that control this planet. To make money, you have to identify their actions on the chart. On the chart we can also see a completely unfilled FVG (Fair Value GAP). Precisely between 90600 and 92060. There is a possibility for Bitcoin to partially or completely fill this GAP before starting the upcoming drop! Longs are riskier at this point, because we want to trade with the bearish trend. But if the price increases in the short term, we can have a much better entry point for our short position on futures. It's also a possibility to retest the long-term blue trendline from the all-time high. From the Elliott Wave point of view, this bear flag seems to be a complex corrective pattern. To be honest, I don't see any signs of strength, such as an impulse wave or a leading diagonal wedge pattern. I am currently bearish on Bitcoin, and I expect a pretty significant drop in the coming weeks! Especially January is statistically an extremely weak month for Bitcoin. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
143
2025 BITCOIN TARGETS: Reality Check Forecasting is easy. Being right is hard. 1. When Targets Turn Into Illusions Look at this chart. Bitcoin at $90,000. Sixteen days left in 2025. And every “expert” target — JPMorgan, VanEck, Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, Kiyosaki, BlackRock, Cathie Wood — all of them missed. Every single one. Why? Because it’s almost impossible to stay objective when you own the asset you’re predicting. When you hold a position, your mind paints infinity. You stop seeing the market — you start seeing your hopes. You stop analyzing — you start believing. These price targets were never forecasts. They were wishful thinking, dressed up as analysis. 2. My Position — Stay Sane In my posts, I always try to remain objective and grounded. I don’t trade emotions. I observe, analyze, and share what I actually see — not what I want to see. And here’s what I see now: Those bullish targets might still be achieved one day — but not by the end of 2025. Not even by the end of 2026. According to my cycle analysis, the next real bull market peak will come around 2029. And even then, it’s hard to name a precise number. But if history repeats — and each new cycle doubles the previous one — then levels like $250k, $275k, or even $300k are possible. Still, even those words must be questioned. Because the market has one constant lesson — humility. And those who sound most confident are usually the first to be wrong. 3. Why Bitcoin Will Keep Growing Anyway Despite all the chaos and uncertainty, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin will keep growing in the long run. The reasons are structural, not emotional: mining difficulty keeps rising, competition among miners is increasing, the industry is expanding, institutional interest is growing, the circulating supply is shrinking, the market is becoming more concentrated, leveraged, and volatile. We’re witnessing moves that a few years ago were unimaginable. A $20,000 daily swing is no longer shocking — it’s the new normal. Just look back at October 11th — Bitcoin dropped $20,000 in a single day. That’s a record. And it will be broken again. Because the game keeps escalating. Bitcoin won’t die. Unlike thousands of altcoins that fade into oblivion, Bitcoin has too many players, too much capital, too much gravity to disappear. 4. Where We Are Now Let’s be honest — we’re not even halfway through this bear market. Not even close. Maybe 20% of the way. The real pain is still ahead — disappointment, capitulation, and exhaustion. And not only among retail traders. Funds, miners, corporations — all of them will face it. Every cycle demands maximum rejection. It needs the crowd to give up. That’s how markets reset. Bear markets are not crashes — they’re slow, grinding declines that strip away hope. They don’t destroy capital first — they destroy conviction. 5. The Bicycle Metaphor If you plan to stay in this market the whole way down, I’ll compare you to a man riding a bicycle downhill. He tells himself: “Yes, I’m going down, but I’ll keep pedaling. When others quit, I’ll be ahead.” But the truth is — when he reaches the bottom, and the next uphill begins, he’ll have no strength left to climb. He’ll be burned out — mentally, financially, emotionally. He won’t make it up the next mountain. 6. What’s Happening Now Right now, we’re in a correction phase. The impulse move is over. The small bounces you see — they’re not a reversal, just temporary relief before the next leg down. This is not the start of a new bull market — it’s a pause between declines. The macro setup doesn’t support growth yet. The structure isn’t there. The market simply isn’t ready. Every cycle gets heavier. Each one demands more pain, more time, more cleansing. 7. The Bottom Line I have no illusions. No fantasies about instant rallies to $300k. Only realism and patience. The market will sort itself out. But by the time the next real bull run begins, most of those who are still “pedaling downhill” now won’t have the energy — or the faith — to climb again. Best regards, EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
62
BTC Breaks Wedge Structure, Bearish Pressure IncreasingBTC Breaks Wedge Structure, Bearish Pressure Increasing Over the past month, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a large wedge pattern, creating a complex and somewhat misleading structure. The recent breakout has clarified the pattern as bearish, significantly increasing the probability of further downside. This shift in momentum may also be influenced by recent MicroStrategy-related news, particularly discussions about its potential removal from the US100 benchmark. Growing concerns around MicroStrategy’s business model,given its extreme sensitivity to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, have raised uncertainty in the market. As one of the largest Bitcoin holders, any negative sentiment surrounding MicroStrategy can directly impact BTC price action. If Bitcoin continues to hold below the broken wedge structure, bearish continuation becomes more likely. In that scenario, downside targets come into focus at: 82,000 76,400 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Short
by KlejdiCuni
44
BTC/USDT - Major Rejection from Supply Zone📝 Description 🔹 Setup Overview WHITEBIT:BTCUSDT BTC/USDT has faced a strong rejection from the upper resistance / supply zone near the recent highs. Price has broken below the rising trendline, signaling a shift in short-term market structure from bullish to bearish. Failure to reclaim the trendline keeps sellers in control. 📌 Trading Plan📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias ) Sell Zone: Below the broken trendline & previous support Target 1: 89,030 (1st Support) Target 2: 87,520 (2nd Support – liquidity area) Confirmation: Weak bullish candles + rejection from trendline retest #BTCUSDT #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BTC #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoMarket #TrendlineBreak #TradingView #Kabhi_TA_Trading #SellBTC ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only. Crypto markets are highly volatile — always manage risk and use stop-losses. 👍 Support the Analysis❤️ LIKE if this helped💬 COMMENT your BTC view 🔁 SHARE with fellow traders Your support keeps the analysis coming! 🙏
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
51
Why Risk–Reward Matters More Than Win Rate!!One of the biggest myths in trading is this: “I need to win more trades to be profitable.” ✖️You don’t... Some of the most profitable traders in the world win less than 50% of their trades. So what’s the real edge? 👉 Risk–reward. 1️⃣ Win Rate Without Risk–Reward Is Meaningless A trader who wins 70% of the time but risks 3 to make 1 is still bleeding slowly. Meanwhile, a trader who wins only 40% of the time but risks 1 to make 3 can grow consistently.🪜 Win rate tells you how often you’re right. Risk–reward tells you how much it matters when you are. 2️⃣ Risk Defines the Trade Before Entry Professionals don’t start with targets. They start with invalidation. They ask: - Where is my idea wrong? - Where does structure break? - Where must I be out? Only after risk is defined, do rewards become meaningful.🏆 If you don’t know where you’re wrong, you don’t know what you’re trading. 3️⃣ Good Risk–Reward Creates Emotional Stability When your risk is small and predefined: - losses feel normal - hesitation disappears - overtrading drops Why? Because no single trade can hurt you badly❗️ Risk–reward doesn’t just protect your account. It protects your mindset. 4️⃣ Risk–Reward Is What Builds Consistency Consistency doesn’t come from winning streaks. It comes from surviving losing streaks.📉 Proper risk–reward ensures: - drawdowns stay shallow - confidence stays intact - discipline stays repeatable That’s how traders last long enough to let probabilities work. 📚The Big Lesson ✔️You don’t need to be right more often. ✖️You need your winners to matter more than your losers. When risk is controlled and reward is logical, trading stops feeling like gambling and starts feeling like execution. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
47
Bitcoin - Can the ascending triangle be broken?Introduction Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined structure after weeks of volatile movement. Despite several failed attempts to break higher, the market continues to compress just beneath a major resistance zone. This type of tightening price action often signals a larger move approaching, as liquidity begins to build on both sides of the range. The chart highlights two key elements that will likely determine BTC’s next direction: the ascending triangle formation and the liquidity level resting below current price. Understanding how price reacts to these areas will be essential for anticipating the next significant impulse. Ascending Triangle BTC is forming an ascending triangle pattern, characterized by rising lows meeting a relatively horizontal zone of resistance. This resistance band, highlighted on the chart, has repeatedly capped upward attempts. Each time BTC pushes into the zone, it is met with selling pressure, but the higher lows reveal that buyers are steadily gaining ground. This pattern typically suggests accumulation and a potential bullish breakout once enough pressure builds. If BTC can break above the upper boundary of this triangle with strength and volume, the move would likely target higher liquidity pools above recent highs. Such a breakout often leads to an impulsive leg upward, as trapped short positions are forced to cover and momentum buyers join in. For now, the ascending trendline remains a key structural support that defines the bullish side of this pattern. Liquidity Level Below the current range lies a clear liquidity zone, created by a cluster of equal lows and untested downside levels. This area is marked on the chart and represents where stop-loss orders and resting liquidity are likely positioned. Markets often revisit such zones before making a decisive breakout, particularly in triangle structures where liquidity builds on both sides. A sweep of this liquidity, combined with a tap into the ascending trendline, would be a textbook setup for buyers to step back in. If BTC dips into this zone and rebounds strongly, it would further strengthen the market structure and increase the likelihood that the eventual breakout takes place to the upside. However, if this liquidity level fails and price breaks below the trendline, the bullish structure would be invalidated, opening the door for a deeper move down. Final Thoughts BTC is approaching a decision point, with price tightening inside an ascending triangle while liquidity pools gather below. As long as the ascending trendline continues to act as support, the market maintains a bullish bias, and a breakout above the resistance zone becomes increasingly likely. Still, a liquidity sweep to the downside before any major rally remains a strong possibility. Traders should pay close attention to how BTC reacts if it dips into the liquidity zone, as this response will reveal whether buyers are prepared to defend the structure. A clean breakout above the resistance band would confirm the next bullish leg, while a breakdown below the ascending trendline would signal weakness and shift the outlook.
by Youriverse
48
Bitcoin Market Assessment - 110k or 80k incoming?Bitcoin Market Assessment – WhiteBit Chart & Exchange (Daily Time Frame) Welcome back everyone. Today we will be evaluating Bitcoin using the WhiteBit chart on the daily time frame. Market Overview Bitcoin recently surged to 126k, sweeping liquidity at the highs. Shortly after, the market sold off aggressively partly amplified by tariff news—which reinforced the upper resistance zone and caused price to break back below it. Price continued to decline sharply, reaching 80.3k, where millions in positions were liquidated. Current Technical Structure 1. Breached Bullish Golden Pocket Price has broken below the bullish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65). Once breached, this zone typically flips into resistance, which is what we’re seeing now. 2. Rising Wedge on the 4H On the 4-hour chart, price is forming a rising wedge, a pattern that often precedes continuation to the downside. This wedge aligns directly with the breached Golden Pocket, forming a strong confluence of resistance. 3. Trend Context Price action is still within a high-time-frame bearish trend, and the recent push upward appears to be a standard bearish pullback rather than a shift in structure. These combined factors suggest the possibility of a deeper move down. Downside Levels of Interest 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement (~85.6k) Next discount zone and logical target if the bearish structure continues. 80k Psychological Level A major high-volume and psychological area. If 85.6k breaks, a retest of 80k becomes probable. Bears are clearly targeting this zone. Volume Profile Insight Using the anchored volume tool, a significant cluster of volume sits around 111k—just above the key 110k level and very near the bearish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65). This area has not yet been retested. On higher time frames, the bearish Golden Pocket often acts as the ideal retracement zone before price continues lower. This creates a compelling upside target if the bearish scenario invalidates. Market Tone Momentum remains weak on the bullish side, with sellers maintaining control. As long as price remains below the breached Golden Pocket, the market structure continues to favor the downside. Scenario Summary Bullish Scenario Price breaks above and closes above the breached bullish Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65 zone). Sustained strength above this level opens the door for: - 110k retest, aligning with major volume at 111k - Potential wick or extension into the bearish Golden Pocket This would temporarily invalidate short-term bearish momentum. Bearish Scenario (Primary) Breached Golden Pocket continues acting as strong resistance. Rising wedge breaks down. Price targets: - 0.786 Fib at 85.6k - 80k psychological level if 85.6k fails - Overall bearish trend remains intact, with bulls showing weakening momentum. Thank you all so much for reading. BTC has made a lot of reactions take place this year, from record breaking highs to record breaking liquidations of 19 Billion in just a few hours! It is important to be cautious, risk only what you can afford to lose and ensure you take on proper risk management. Make sure to follow and comment below what you think! If you would like any guides, or assessments of specific crypto currencies done, let me know!
Short
by King_BennyBag
55
The Real Bitcoin Bottom: It’s in the Power BillThe Cost of Mining 1 BTC – Autumn 2025 Deep Dive First of all, I want to say that I already made a similar publication in 2020 about the cost of Bitcoin, and we reached these levels (the chart is below). Introduction: The Bitcoin mining industry in Autumn 2025 stands at a crossroads. Network difficulty has soared to all-time highs, squeezing miner profit margins as hashpower races ahead of price. The hashprice – the daily revenue per unit of hashing power – has slumped to record lows around $54 per PH/s-day (down from ~$70 a year ago). Analysts expect this metric to languish between $50 and $32 until the next halving in 2028, underscoring how challenging the economics have become. In this environment, understanding the cost to mine 1 Bitcoin is more crucial than ever. Below, we present a detailed comparison of popular ASIC miners and analyze which rigs remain profitable (or not) at current prices. We’ll also explore how the cost of production acts like a magnetic price level for BTC – often drawing the market down to this “floor” before a rebound – and what that means for investors now. Cost to Mine 1 BTC by ASIC Miner Model (at $0.03–$0.10/kWh) To quantify Bitcoin’s production cost, we compare leading ASIC miners from Bitmain, MicroBT, Canaan, Bitdeer, and Block. Table 1 below shows key specs and the estimated cost to mine one BTC under different electricity prices (from very cheap $0.03/kWh to pricey $0.10/kWh): Key Takeaways: Electricity price is the dominant factor in mining cost. At an ultra-cheap $0.03/kWh (possible in regions with subsidized power or stranded energy), even older-generation miners can produce BTC for well under $30k per coin. In our table, all models have a cost per BTC between ~$21k and $27k at $0.03/kWh – a fraction of Bitcoin’s current ~$90k–$95k market price. At a mid-tier rate of $0.05/kWh (typical for industrial miners in energy-rich areas), the top machines still show healthy margins. Bitmain’s flagship S21 XP leads with roughly $36k cost per BTC, while other new-gen rigs fall in the ~$39k–$45k range. These figures imply profit margins of 50–60% for efficient miners at $0.05 power. At a pricey $0.10/kWh (common for retail electricity or high-tariff regions), mining costs skyrocket. Only the very latest ASIC (S21 XP) stays comfortably below the current BTC price, at around $72k per coin. Most other models hover in the $78k–$90k range, meaning their operators are earning little to no profit at spot prices. In fact, at $0.10/kWh, a miner like the Avalon A15 Pro would spend about $89k to generate one BTC – essentially breakeven with Bitcoin at ~$90k. This illustrates why high-power-cost miners struggle or shut off during downturns. Profitable vs. Unprofitable: Current Market Reality Which miners are still profitable at today’s rates? Given Bitcoin’s price in the low $90,000s and typical industrial electricity around $0.05–$0.07/kWh, the newest generation ASICs remain comfortably profitable, while older, less efficient models are on the edge. For example: Latest-gen winners: The Bitmain S21 XP – with industry-best ~13.5 J/TH efficiency – can mine a coin for roughly $36k at $0.05/kWh, leaving a huge cushion against price. Even at $0.07/kWh (a common hosting rate), its cost per BTC would be on the order of ~$50k, still well below market price. Other 2024–2025 flagship units (Whatsminer M60S++, Bitdeer A2 Pro, Block’s Proto) likewise have breakeven power costs around $0.12–0.13/kWh; they remain viable in most regions except the very expensive ones. Older-gen on the brink: By contrast, an earlier-gen workhorse like the Antminer S19 XP ( ~21.5 J/TH) or similarly efficient rigs from 2021–2022 generation become marginal at moderate power rates. An S19 XP mining at $0.08/kWh sees its cost per BTC climb to roughly ~$94k (near current price), and at $0.10 it exceeds $110k (mining at a loss). Many such units are only profitable in locales with <$0.05 power. This is why we’ve seen miners with older fleets either upgrade or retire hardware as the margin for profitability narrows. The efficiency gap: The spread between best-in-class and older miners translates directly into survivability. A miner burning 30–40 J/TH can only stay online if they have extremely cheap electricity or if BTC’s price is far above average production cost. As of Q4 2025, Bitcoin’s price is indeed high, but so is the network difficulty – meaning inefficient gear yields so little BTC that electricity costs outweigh revenue in many cases. According to one industry report, the cost of mining 1 BTC varies widely across companies – from as low as ~$14.4k for those with exceptional power contracts (e.g. TeraWulf’s U.S. facilities) to as high as ~$65.9k for others like Riot Platforms, even before accounting for overhead. (Riot’s effective cost was brought down to ~$49.5k after cost-cutting measures.) This huge range shows how electricity pricing and efficiency determine which miners thrive. In early 2025, the situation became so extreme that CoinShares analysts found the average all-in production cost for public mining companies spiked to ~$82,000 per coin – nearly double the prior quarter (post-halving impact) – and up to $137,000 for smaller operators ixbt.com . At that time Bitcoin was trading around $94k, meaning many miners, especially smaller ones, were underwater and operating at a loss. In high-cost regions like Germany, the breakeven cost even hit an absurd ~$200k per BTC, making mining there utterly unviable. Bottom line: At current prices, only miners with efficient rigs and reasonably cheap power are making money. Those with older equipment or expensive electricity have minimal margins or are already in the red. This dynamic naturally leads to miners shutting off machines that don’t profit, which in turn caps the network hashrate growth until either price rises or difficulty drops. It’s a self-correcting mechanism – one that ties directly into Bitcoin’s production cost acting as a market floor. Production Cost as Bitcoin’s “Magnetic” Price Level There’s a saying in the mining community: “Bitcoin’s price gravitates toward its cost of production.” In practice, the production cost often behaves like a magnet and a floor for the market. When the spot price climbs far above the cost to mine, it invites more hashing power (and new investment in miners) until rising difficulty pulls costs up. Conversely, if price falls below the average production cost, miners start to capitulate – selling coins and shutting rigs – until the difficulty eases and the market finds a bottom. This push-pull keeps price and cost loosely tethered over the long run. Notably, JPMorgan’s research this cycle highlighted that Bitcoin’s all-in production cost (now around ~$94,000) has “empirically acted as a floor for Bitcoin” in past cycles. In other words, the market has rarely traded for long below the prevailing cost to mine, because at that point fundamental supply dynamics kick in. As of late 2025, they estimate the spot price is hovering just barely above 1.0 times the cost (~1.03x) – near the lowest end of its historical range. This implies miners’ operating margins are razor-thin right now, and any extended move significantly below ~$94k would likely trigger miner capitulation and supply contraction. In plainer terms: downside from here is naturally limited – not by hope or hype, but by the economics of mining. If BTC dropped well under the cost floor, many miners would simply turn off machines rather than mine at a loss, removing sell pressure and helping put in a price bottom. History supports this magnetic pull. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin has tended to retest its production cost during the worst of capitulations. For example, during the late-2018 crash and again in the 2022 downturn, BTC prices plunged to levels that put numerous miners out of business. But those phases were short-lived. Prices found support once enough miners quit and difficulty adjusted downward, allowing the survivors to breathe. The market “wants” to stay near the cost of production, as that is a sustainable equilibrium where miners neither drop like flies nor earn excessive profits. Whenever price strays too high above cost, it usually invites a surge in competition (hashrate) that raises the cost floor; when price sinks too low, hashpower falls until cost drops to meet price. It’s an elegant economic dance built into Bitcoin’s design. Why Price Often Meets Cost Before Rebounding If Bitcoin production cost is a de facto floor, why do we often see price fall all the way down to it (or even briefly below it) before the next big rally? The answer lies in miner psychology and market cyclicality: Miner Capitulation & Shakeouts: Markets are cruel to the over-leveraged and inefficient. During bull runs, miners expand operations, often taking on debt or high operating costs under the assumption of continually high prices. When the cycle turns, Bitcoin’s price can free-fall toward the cost of production, erasing margins. The weakest miners (highest costs or debt loads) capitulate first – selling off their BTC reserves and unplugging hardware. This wave of forced selling can push price right to (or slightly under) the cost floor, marking a final “shakeout” of excess. Only when the weakest hands are flushed does the market rebound. It’s no coincidence that major bottoms often align with news of miner bankruptcies or mass liquidations. The Iron Law of Hashrate: Miners are competitive and will run at breakeven or even slight loss for some time, hoping for recovery, rather than quit immediately. This means the network can temporarily operate above sustainable difficulty levels. Eventually, however, reality sets in. When enough miners can’t pay the bills, hashrate plateaus or drops, halting difficulty growth or causing it to decline. At that inflection point, the cost of mining stabilizes (or falls), giving relief to the remaining miners. The stage is set for price to rebound off the now-lower equilibrium. In essence, Bitcoin often has to tag its production cost to force a network reset and purge imprudent operators. Only after that cleansing can a fresh uptrend begin with a healthier foundation. Investor Sentiment at the Floor: From a contrarian market perspective, a convergence of price and production cost typically corresponds with maximum pessimism. If Bitcoin is trading at or below what it “should” cost to make, it signals extreme undervaluation to savvy investors. In late 2022, for instance, estimates of BTC’s cost basis in the $18k–$20k range coincided with the market trading in the mid-$15k’s – a level where miners were going bankrupt and sentiment was in the gutter. Yet those willing to be greedy when miners were fearful reaped the rewards when price recovered. The same pattern could be unfolding now in late 2025: the public is fearful of Bitcoin’s recent pullback, but its cost floor (~$94k) suggests fundamental value support. Smart money knows that when price meets cost, downside is limited and upside potential grows. Conclusion – Steeling Ourselves at the Cost Floor In EXCAVO’s signature fashion, let’s cut through the noise: Bitcoin’s production cost is the line in the sand – the magnetized level where price and reality meet. As of Autumn 2025, that line hovers in the mid-$90,000s, and Bitcoin has indeed been gravitating here. The data shows miners barely breaking even on average. This is a make-or-break moment. If you’re bullish because everyone else is, check your thesis – the real reason to be bullish is that BTC is scraping its cost floor, a level from which it has historically sprung back with vengeance. Conversely, if you’re panicking out of positions now, remember that you’re selling into the teeth of fundamental support. The market loves to punish latecomers who buy high and sell low. Yes, the mining industry is under stress; yes, the headlines scream fear. But those very pressures are what forge the next bull run. Every miner that shuts off today is one less source of sell pressure tomorrow. Every uptick in efficiency raises the floor that much higher, like a coiled spring tightening. Bitcoin has been here before – when production cost and price locked jaws in late 2022, and again in early 2025 post-halving. Each time, the doom and gloom was followed by a dramatic recovery as the imbalances corrected. Our contrarian take: The cost of mining 1 BTC isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet – it’s the secret pulse of the market. Right now it’s telling us that the bottom is in or very near. Prices might chop around this magnet a bit longer, even dip slightly below in a final fake-out, but odds of a deep crash under the ~$94k cost basis are slim. The longer Bitcoin grinds at or below miners’ breakeven, the more hashpower will fall off, quietly tightening supply. When the spring releases, the next upward leg could be explosive (as even mainstream analysts like JPMorgan are eyeing ~$170k targets). In summary, Bitcoin tends to revisit its production cost for one last test – and when it holds, it launches. Autumn 2025 appears to be giving us that test. The savvy, data-driven operator will view this not with panic, but with patience and resolve. After all, if you can accumulate Bitcoin near its intrinsic mining value while the herd is fearful, you position yourself on the right side of the trade once the inevitable rebound kicks in. As the saying goes, bears win, bulls win, but miners (and hodlers) who understand the cost dynamics win big in the end. Brace yourself, stay analytical, and remember: Bitcoin’s true floor is built in watts and hashes, and it’s solid as steel. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
29
INTERVIEW: EXCAVO View 12/12/25In my previous post, I invited you to ask any questions you had about the current market, the cycle structure, Bitcoin dominance, altcoins, timing, and everything in between. You asked - and here are the detailed answers. This is the continuation of our interview series. I have taken every question from the comments, grouped them under your usernames, and provided full, transparent explanations based on my current market view. Let's dive in. @just5 Q: Why do you say the bear market started in November? If it started earlier, why not in October? Where does the 126k top come from? Why is Bitcoin dominance so high? Why haven't many altcoins (ETH, SOL) broken their previous highs? How far can they fall? Your analysis is based on past cycles and fractals. Do you admit you can be wrong? A: I do not define the beginning of a bear market strictly by the date of the absolute top. For me, the trigger is the structure on the weekly timeframe. The formal high was reached in October, but the signal that confirmed the start of the bear phase was the first strong red weekly candle, which appeared in November. That is why I mark November as the beginning of the bear market. The 126k level is not something random - the market simply traded there (around 126,250 USD depending on the exchange). So the level itself is not in question. As for Bitcoin dominance - it is very simple. We have one main instrument in the market: BTC. It defines the weather for the entire crypto market. When BTC rises, some alts rise and others lag. When BTC falls, everything falls - especially assets with weaker liquidity or fundamentals. Historically, people traded a lot of alt/BTC pairs. Many even believed altcoins were created mainly to accumulate more BTC. Today this logic still works: liquidity and attention gravitate toward Bitcoin, which naturally leads to high dominance. Regarding ETH and SOL: I honestly expected ETH to break its previous ATH. On SOL, I have written a separate idea (I will attach the link) where, back when ETH was around $1700 and SOL was around $150, I already said that between these two I prefer ETH because cycles matter. Above $200-250 on SOL and $4900-5000 on ETH there is a large liquidity cluster. The market will eventually go there, but the question is when. This expectation kept many people in top altcoins without taking profit. How far can altcoins fall? My baseline scenario is a 50-60% correction from their peaks, and that is the minimum. Crypto cycles often surprise with deeper drawdowns. Regarding the fractal and cycle approach - yes, my view is based on previous cycles. But of course, I admit that I can be wrong. If I am wrong, I will acknowledge it publicly. TradingView does not allow deleting ideas, everything stays visible, so everyone can judge my track record objectively. @louistran_016 Q: If the 41% drop (126k -> 75k) happened in 2 months, why would the move to 60k take another 10 months? Is the 60k downside target too high? Is September 2026 too late for a market bottom? If the previous bottom in 2022 was at the 100-month EMA (around 16k), should not the next bottom be around 44k? A: I never said the drop to 60k must take 10 months. The chart is not obligated to move like "stick down -> stick up". We have only two axes: price and time. The market can: drop quickly, then consolidate, then spend months accumulating before the next move. Even if we hit 60k in 3 months, it does not mean the market will immediately reverse. Accumulation can take time. The 60k target is indeed a "high" bottom for a bear market because it is only about a 50% correction from the peak. I do not exclude deeper scenarios: 60-65-70% drawdowns are normal for crypto. But even 60k is a much better long-term buying zone than 90-100k or current prices. September 2026 is not "too late" in my view. It aligns well with the classical cycle structure: distribution -> decline -> depression -> accumulation. Regarding the 44k idea based on the 100-month EMA: It is absolutely possible. I do not rule it out. But tactically, I first target the 60-64k zone and then will reassess whether deeper levels become realistic. @ikkie Q: Many people are calling this a bear market. Is that a bad sign? A: What I actually see is many influencers publicly questioning whether this is a bear market because they did not exit in time, and now it is hard for them to admit it to their audiences. The fact that many people call it a bear market is completely normal. The real question is not how people label the market, but what you do with your money. Being out of the market is also a position, sometimes the best one. When price enters a transition phase, staying flat can be a very strong decision. @luaselene Q: What about ETH? A: ETH has a large liquidity zone above $4900-5000. I expect this region to be taken in one of the future bullish phases, but not in the near future. More realistically, this is a 2026-2027 story. Within the current part of the cycle, I do not expect ETH to sustainably break the ATH. @mpd Q: I expect a retest of 100k before a crash to 35k. Thoughts? A: A very realistic scenario. A retest of 100k is the perfect psychological trap: it attracts the last wave of euphoric buyers, it loads the market with long positions (usually with leverage), and then the market can wipe them out with a deeper drop, even toward your 35k target. Crypto loves this pattern: round number -> FOMO -> leverage -> liquidation. @KoDPrey Q: Why should the drop to 70k lead to a long correction instead of being a quick liquidity sweep before a move to 150-200k? Why do you think this cycle repeats previous ones? Can BTC dominance reach 70% in a bear market? Aren't we in the middle of a bull market? If you were wrong on PORTAL longs, can you also be wrong about the entire cycle? A: I do not think the drop to 70k must be a simple wick with an instant reversal. Historically, Bitcoin cycles include a depression phase where people lose hope, liquidity gets washed out, and even long-term holders capitulate. After this phase, a move toward 150-200-250k makes much more structural sense. A simple "drop -> instant all-time-high" scenario resembles the old "supercycle" meme. Possible? Maybe. Likely? In my view - not now. This cycle is indeed different: almost no broad altseason, many more participants, institutions, and countries involved, much more infrastructure that can liquidate traders' positions, more derivatives, more leverage, more points of failure. But Bitcoin's macro-cycle structure is still fractally consistent. The shapes and speeds change - the logic does not. Can Bitcoin dominance hit 70%? Yes. In crypto anything is possible. I consider this scenario totally realistic, even within a bear market. Are we in the middle of a bull market? In my view - no. I do not think we are anywhere near the middle of a bull run. Regarding PORTAL: yes, I was wrong. And not only there, I have been wrong many times. But even with those mistakes, I closed my positions, exited both spot and margin, and avoided much deeper drawdowns. Of course I can be wrong about the cycle. I am sharing my view, not claiming infallibility. My win rate is far from perfect, and every idea remains public on TradingView. Anyone can check them later. @houari14 Q: What do you think about the USDT Dominance index (USDT.D)? Is it reliable? A: Honestly, I barely use USDT.D in my analysis. Yes, it shows whether market participants prefer sitting in stablecoins or taking risk, but for me it is not a primary metric. I focus more on: BTC price, market structure, dominance of BTC itself, volume behavior, and how major altcoins react. @anatta_ Q: How far can BTC fall in this bear market? How long will the bear market last? If BTC holds 80-85k for a few months, can it start a new bull cycle? A: I expect at least a 50% correction from the top. Realistically, 60-65-70% drawdowns are absolutely possible. More than 75% I do not consider my baseline, but in crypto nothing is impossible. Regarding duration: My estimation is that the bear market should end toward late 2026. Around September 2026 I expect a major bottom, a zone where long-term accumulation becomes attractive. If BTC holds 80-85k for a few months, yes, theoretically it could trigger a new bullish phase, especially if a strong new narrative appears. But I am not betting on that scenario. I prefer staying out of the market until the cycle structure becomes clear. @tommayhew Q: Is there a connection between the recent Cloudflare security incident and the crypto drop? A: The timing was surprising, and it is natural to link the two events. But at this moment I do not see solid evidence that the incident caused the market drop. Maybe more information will appear later, but for now I treat it as a coincidence rather than a catalyst. @simplejoe1 Q: We already have ETFs and a pro-BTC U.S. president. Could this be the absolute top? A: ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin president do not automatically guarantee continuous growth, nor do they define the market top. The president also has: his own memecoin, check how its chart looks, his own crypto-investing fund, check its token too. These examples show that one person, even the U.S. president, does not determine the entire market. The market is bigger and more complex than a single headline. Best regards, EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
22
The Dark Side Of Christmas for Bitcoin!!!!!!Christmas buying pressure on Bitcoin is not always bullish. When everyone expects holiday gains, the market often prepares for something else. Is this seasonal optimism creating opportunity, or quietly building a selloff? Hello✌️ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Apart from the fundamental explanations regarding Bitcoin’s decline, which this entire article focuses on, the price has recently approached the top of the descending channel, and if the weekly support I have marked on the chart breaks, I expect at least an additional 4% drop, with a target around $82,600. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🎄 Overall Market Environment During Christmas During the Christmas period, the market often enters a phase that looks calm on the surface but carries hidden selling pressure underneath, and this contradiction causes many traders to misread what is really happening. Reduced participation from large players makes the balance between supply and demand much more fragile than usual, allowing price to react faster to emotions. In this environment, Bitcoin tends to be more vulnerable to corrections rather than strong bullish continuation. 🧠 Crowd Psychology And Misleading Expectations When bullish expectations turn into a common belief, the market often chooses a different path because most potential buyers are already positioned. This collective mindset causes traders to ignore early signs of weakness and react later than they should. Christmas often creates this exact situation, where optimism replaces realistic analysis. 💸 Converting Bitcoin Into Real Liquidity During this period, many people prefer to convert part of their Bitcoin holdings into dollars or gold to cover expenses related to celebrations, gifts, and travel. This behavior is not driven by fear of the market but by real-life liquidity needs. When this decision happens on a large scale, it creates steady and continuous selling pressure. 📉 Why Selloffs Often Appear Sudden Seasonal selling usually starts quietly and without panic, but once price reaches sensitive levels, the impact becomes visible as sharp drops. Traders waiting for classic confirmations often realize the shift only after most of the move has already occurred. This delay makes the decline feel more sudden than it actually is. 😰 The Hidden Role Of Fear In Decisions During Christmas, many traders are uncomfortable holding open positions through holidays, which creates a hidden layer of fear that directly influences selling behavior. This fear usually activates before sharp drops, not after them. The market senses this hesitation and uses it as fuel. 🧯 Short Market Behavior Summary Christmas is more about releasing pressure than building new trends. Understanding this mental phase can help avoid emotional decisions. 🛠 TradingView Tools And Features For This Phase Volume Profile helps identify areas where price lacks real trading activity, making fast drops more likely. Session Breaks highlight periods of reduced participation where sudden moves become more dangerous. VWAP provides a clear view of how far price is trading from market equilibrium. Market Structure allows traders to detect weak and misleading breakouts. 🎯 Three Key Recommendations For Traders In this environment, trading less is often a smarter decision than staying constantly active. Capital protection should have higher priority than chasing moves. Always ask yourself whether a trade comes from analysis or from psychological pressure. ✨ Need a little love! We pour love into every post your support keeps us inspired! 💛 Don’t be shy, we’d love to hear from you on comments. Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please make sure to do your own research before investing, and review the disclaimer provided at the end of each post.
Education
by MadWhale
19
Volume Do Not Predict Price! - It Explains It!Most traders look at volume the wrong way.✖️ They expect volume to tell them where price will go next. But volume’s real job is much more important: Volume explains why price moved the way it did. If you learn to read volume correctly, price action becomes clearer, not noisier. 1️⃣ Price Up + Rising Volume = Commitment When price moves higher and volume expands, it means buyers are committed, not just reacting. This is not random buying. This is participation. 📈Rising volume during an impulse confirms that the move is supported by real interest, not just thin liquidity. Strong trends are built on expanding volume. 2️⃣ Price Up + Falling Volume = Warning When price continues higher but volume dries up, something changes. The move still exists... but conviction doesn’t. This often signals: - exhaustion - a potential pause - or an upcoming correction That’s when professionals stop chasing and start managing risk. 3️⃣ Sideways Price + Rising Volume = Accumulation or Distribution This is where most traders get confused: Price isn’t moving much, but volume is increasing. That’s not boredom. That’s positioning. Large players don’t chase price. They build positions quietly while price looks “dead.” Breakouts that follow these zones tend to be fast and decisive, because the work was already done.❗️ 4️⃣ Breakouts Without Volume Are Suspect A breakout candle looks exciting. But without volume, it’s just a move, not a decision. Low-volume breakouts often lead to: - fakeouts - traps - fast reversals 🏹Volume doesn’t need to explode... but it needs to confirm participation. 💡The Big Picture Volume is not a signal by itself. It’s context. Price tells you what happened, while Volume tells you how serious that move really was. ✔️When price and volume agree, trades feel easy. ✖️When they disagree, something important is hiding underneath. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
48
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on BITCOIN? Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined range between $88,000 and $95,000, while continuing to trade inside an ascending channel. The lower boundary of this ascending channel aligns closely with the $88,000 support zone, adding confluence and strengthening this area as a key demand region. At the moment, price action is hovering near the channel support, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening. As long as the price holds above the $88,000 support, we expect some short-term consolidation followed by a bullish push toward the upper range at $95,000. A clean breakout above $95,000 could open the door for a continuation move toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which would act as the next upside target. A sustained break below the channel support would invalidate this scenario. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
28
Bitcoin - Can it reclaim $89.000?Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading in a crucial zone after the recent decline, positioned between a bullish 4-hour FVG around the lower $85,000 region and a 4-hour bearish FVG just below resistance. This BTC technical analysis focuses on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the lost trendline and the associated FVG, or whether the market instead opts for a deeper correction. Bullish 4H FVG The bullish 4-hour FVG around approximately $85,500 is holding for now as an important support level. From this zone, BTC recently initiated a modest bounce, indicating that buying interest is still present. As long as price continues to close above this FVG, there remains technical room for a larger recovery move toward the higher resistance zones. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario centers on a rejection within the 4-hour bearish FVG that aligns with the previously broken ascending trendline. If BTC only revisits this area as a retest and is subsequently sold off, it would confirm that former support has turned into resistance. In that case, lower prices become likely again, with potential targets below the recent lows and deeper into the $80,000 range. Bullish Scenario The bullish scenario requires a convincing reclaim of both the trendline and the 4-hour bearish FVG above it. If BTC manages to close above this cluster and then successfully retest it as new support, market sentiment would shift back in favor of the bulls. In that case, BTC would likely revisit the recent highs near the major resistance zone. This BTC technical analysis therefore emphasizes that the reaction around the converging trendline and FVG will be decisive for the next larger move. Conclusion BTC is currently at an important crossroads between a still-holding bullish 4-hour FVG around $85,500 and a critical 4-hour bearish FVG at the broken trendline. A rejection at the upper levels increases the probability of further downside, while a clear reclaim of both the trendline and the FVG would open the door for a retest of the highs.
Long
by Youriverse
40
Bitcoin Pullback to Resistance — Next Drop Loading?As I expected , Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has begun its decline from the resistance zone($94,850-$93,000) and has reached its target. Currently, Bitcoin is moving near the resistance zone($90,900-$90,100), the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($91,840-$90,110), and other resistance lines. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Bitcoin has completed its five-wave downward sequence and is now in the process of forming the corrective waves upward, likely within the resistance zone($90,900-$90,100). Moreover, since the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) has successfully broken the upper line of its falling wedge pattern, we can anticipate further increases in USDT.D%, which could put additional downward pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, considering that the S&P 500 index( SP:SPX ) is likely to resume a bearish trend, and given Bitcoin’s correlation with the SPX, a further decline in Bitcoin is not unexpected. In conclusion, based on the above analysis, I expect that Bitcoin will at least test the support lines and, if those are broken, it may continue to decline toward the Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($87,000-$85,663). If the momentum of breaking these support lines is strong, we can expect even more significant downward movement. Do you think Bitcoin can go below $87,000? First Target: Support lines Second Target: Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($87,000-$85,663) Stop Loss(SL): $92,000(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
Short
by pejman_zwin
35
Why the Reaction Matters More Than the Level!!!Most traders spend their time hunting for the perfect level.✖️ Support. Resistance. Demand. Supply. They draw the zone… and assume price must react. But professionals know something crucial: The level itself is not the edge. The reaction is. Here’s why. 1️⃣ Levels Are Common Knowledge Everyone sees the same support. Everyone sees the same resistance. If levels alone were enough, everyone would be profitable. A level is just a location.📍 It doesn’t tell you who is in control. 2️⃣The Reaction Reveals Intent What matters is how price behaves at the level. Ask yourself: - Does price reject immediately or hesitate? - Are candles impulsive or overlapping? - Does price leave the level with strength or drift away slowly? A strong reaction tells you: ➡️ One side stepped in aggressively. A weak reaction tells you: ➡️ The level exists… but conviction doesn’t. 3️⃣ Clean Rejections Beat Perfect Levels A slightly imperfect level with a violent reaction is far more valuable than a textbook level with no follow-through. Professionals wait for: - sharp rejections - momentum expansion - structure confirmation They don’t assume... they observe. 4️⃣ Failed Reactions Are Warnings When price reaches a level and does nothing… that silence is information. Failed reactions often lead to: - level breaks - deeper moves - trend continuation The market is telling you: ➡️ “This level no longer matters.” 📚The Big Lesson Levels tell you where to look. Reactions tell you what to do. If you shift your focus from drawing levels to reading behavior at levels, your trading instantly becomes clearer and more objective. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
28
Why the Market Loves to Trap Traders!!!If trading ever feels personal, it’s not. The market isn’t hunting you; it’s hunting liquidity. Understanding this single idea changes how you read charts forever. 1️⃣ The Market Moves Toward Liquidity, Not Logic Most traders expect price to move because a pattern is “complete” or a level is “perfect.” In reality, price moves to where orders are sitting. Where is liquidity usually found? - Above obvious highs - Below obvious lows - Around round numbers - Near breakout levels everyone is watching The market goes where the orders are, not where traders hope it goes. 2️⃣ Breakouts Are the Most Common Liquidity Pools When price approaches a clear resistance, traders place: - breakout buys above - stop-losses from shorts just above That creates a liquidity magnet. Price spikes above the level, fills those orders… and often reverses sharply once liquidity is consumed. That’s not manipulation... that’s mechanics. 3️⃣ Traps Reveal Who’s Really in Control A trap happens when price: - breaks a key level - fails to follow through - returns back inside the range This tells you something critical: ➡️ The side that should have won… didn’t. 4️⃣ Professionals Don’t Chase; They Wait Retail traders react to the breakout. Professionals wait for the reaction after the breakout. They ask: - Did price accept above the level? - Did momentum expand or fade? - Did structure shift or snap back? Patience turns traps into opportunities. 📚The Core Lesson The market’s job is not to reward anticipation. It’s to test conviction. Once you stop trading where everyone else enters and start observing who gets trapped, price action becomes clearer, calmer, and more logical. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
32
Bitcoin falling trendline soon will break and Bulls will lead Bitcoin is currently trading within an ascending channel, encountering resistance near both the channel's upper boundary and a significant historical descending trendline. While this confluence of resistance has prompted a short-term pullback, the overall structure suggests a potential breakout attempt in the near term. A decisive move above the falling trendline would signal a shift in market structure, likely invalidating the bearish momentum and transitioning the market into either a consolidation range or a renewed bullish phase . Following a confirmed breakout, the technical setup would support the potential for further upward movement, with progress expected to become more sustained once this key resistance zone is cleared. So get Ready also other paths mentioned on the chart too what may happen in your view comment below !! DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
23
Why Most Traders Misread Trends!!! (Fix It in 10 Seconds)Every trader talks about trends. Few actually understand how to read them. Most traders think a trend is defined by: - a diagonal line - a moving average - or a breakout But the truth is much simpler... and far more powerful: A trend is defined by the quality of its pullbacks. 📚Here’s the 10-second method professionals use: 1️⃣ Shallow Pullbacks = Strong Trend When pullbacks barely retrace and reverse quickly, it means one side is overwhelming the other. Momentum is healthy. Continuation is likely. A shallow pullback tells you: ➡️ “Don’t fade this. Follow it.” 2️⃣ Deep Pullbacks = Weakening Trend When price retraces deep into the previous leg, momentum is slowing and imbalance is shrinking. Buyers are less aggressive. Sellers are gaining confidence. A deep pullback tells you: ➡️ “Trend still alive, but the engine is cooling.” 3️⃣ Chaotic Pullbacks = Trend Is Dying If pullbacks become wide, choppy, overlapping, messy, the trend is no longer in control. It’s not a trend anymore. It’s a negotiation. A chaotic pullback tells you: ➡️ “Stop trading the trend. Wait for structure.” 📚Final Thought The market isn’t random ... it’s rhythmic. And pullbacks are the rhythm. Once you learn to read that rhythm, you’ll stop fighting trends… and start flowing with them. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Education
by TheSignalyst
52
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Double Top Confirms Short-Term Bearish ShiftHi Market Structure: BTC formed a clear double top, signaling exhaustion near recent highs. This structure marked a shift from bullish momentum to short-term bearish control. Following the rejection, price began making lower highs and lower lows, confirming a local downtrend. Trend & Price Action: Price is currently trading below a descending trendline, acting as dynamic resistance. Each attempt to move higher has been capped, reinforcing bearish pressure. The recent pullback toward the trendline appears corrective rather than impulsive. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 88,800 – 89,100 Current Price Area: ~86,900 Major Support / Target: 83,500 – 83,000 (demand zone) Outlook & Strategy: As long as price remains below the descending trendline, downside continuation toward 83.5k remains the higher-probability scenario. A confirmed breakout above resistance would be required to invalidate the bearish bias.
Short
by melikatrader94
21
BTC/USDT | Hold 90K or Prepare for a Heavy Flush? Let's See!CRYPTOCAP:BTC pushed into $94,700, tapped the target perfectly, and then slipped into a sharp correction. Right now Bitcoin is trading around $90,000, and the entire market is focused on a single decision level. If BTC can stabilize above $90,000 within the next 24 hours, the bullish structure stays alive and we can look for a continuation toward $97,000 and then $100,000. If BTC fails to hold $90,000, the door opens for a deeper decline and the first downside target becomes the $78,000 demand zone. This is the point where the next major direction gets decided. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
20
BTCUSD: Buyers in Control - Resistance Retest AheadHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup. Market Analysis BTCUSDT is currently trading within a broadly bullish structure, supported by a rising trend line that has been respected after the major sell-off and subsequent recovery. Following the strong decline, price formed a base near the lower levels and initiated a reversal, creating higher lows and shifting market control back to buyers. After the initial rebound, Bitcoin entered multiple Range phases, where price consolidated and built liquidity. Each range was followed by a breakout, confirming sustained buying interest. Some of these moves included fake breakouts, which briefly trapped participants before price continued to respect the broader bullish structure. Currently, BTCUSDT is holding above the key Support Zone around 89,300, which has repeatedly acted as a demand area. Price is also compressing under a descending Triangle Resistance Line, while the rising trend line continues to support the market from below. This creates a tightening structure, suggesting that a decisive move is approaching. The 92,000 Resistance level remains the main barrier overhead, where sellers have previously stepped in and rejected higher prices. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario remains bullish as long as BTCUSDT holds above the 89,300 Support Zone and continues to respect the ascending trend line. I expect buyers to defend this area and gradually build pressure toward the upper resistance. A clean breakout above the 92,000 Resistance, especially with strong momentum, would confirm bullish continuation and open the path for a move toward higher levels, aligned with the broader trend. However, if price fails to break the triangle resistance and loses the 89,300 Support, a deeper pullback toward the trend line could occur before buyers attempt another recovery. Until such a breakdown happens, the structure favors buyers. For now, the market remains constructive, with support holding and resistance at 92,000 as the key level to watch. That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
20
Bitcoin - Sell this upcoming pump! New Bear Flag - Target 74k!I am currently bullish on Bitcoin in the short term, and I believe Bitcoin will hit 96k, probably this week. The current price is around 91k, so this is definitely a good opportunity to sell or open a short position at 96k on futures because later this month/in January Bitcoin will most likely continue in a downtrend and hit 74k! 74k (74,508) is a significant swing low from April 2024. There is no doubt that a lot of retail traders have their stop losses placed exactly below this swing low. This acts like a strong magnet for huge institutions, hedge funds, and big banks (market makers). It's no longer a secret that Bitcoin's development and Bitcoin's price are completely controlled by these lizards. But let's take a look at the short-term prediction. What we can see on the daily chart or on the 12h chart is a bear flag formation. This bear flag is so nice and almost textbook perfect! Inside the bear flag we have a WXY corrective pattern (3x ABC or 3x WXY). I think that this is a strong indication that the downtrend we see from the all-time high (126k) will likely continue in the next weeks. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
by Xanrox
154