Setup Saturday Backtesting Templates Today I will be going over a setup that I am finding and am liking. It is a mean reversion; Low of the Day Buy Setup to take out the High of Day.
I want to trade like Mcdonald's with each setup being a cookie cutter formula. It is either there, or it isn't. I don't want to guess direction or trade movement. I want a simple setup that repeats itself regularly.
I am going over my playbook of setups and simplifying my entire process to 3-5 buys and 3-5 sells.
Today's setup is LOD Range Back to HOD:
This setup has a certain behavior it follows for each of the "sections" of the setup
1. Opening of the Daily Candle
2. Formation of the Initial High of Day
3. The Dump
4. Setting up of the Low of Day
5. The Entry
6. The Pump
7. Where to Place Stop
8. Where to Place Target
I have given multiple examples of the same setup with minor variations and across different instruments. This is a New York setup that occurs roughly an hour or two after it NY opens. This is not something that occurs in Asia or London.
In Summary:
This is a range trade, mean reversion that takes place late in the NY session. It requires the entire day to setup and has specific parts that behave the same. Look for the initial high of day to form and the dump prior to NY. Wait until NY puts in the Low of Day and enter with small doji candles. Target the High of Day.
YMU2021 trade ideas
Creeping Trend Into 750. Thursday Long Opportunity. My gameplan Thursday is to see how this creeping trend plays out. I am looking for the creeping trend to layer down into 750 near the lows of these 8 Hour candles.
Price is mean reverting around the 1000 level
Creeping trends resolve themselves in one of two ways. They capitulate and blow off in the direction of the trend or they reverse
Below I have outlined my entry criteria and I will see how price behaves at my level. If Long, I am targeting that swing high for roughly 380 ticks.
I will give an example of a creeping trend:
Another example:
Mean Reversion Around 00's Short Down to 750I am short at 45,042 after the close of a fat green bar. My bias is down and so I sell into bull bars.
Price is currently mean reverting around 45,000 with the peak formation high above 250. I am looking for price to go down to the next level at 750.
I am using a 100 tick stop and a 265 tick target
a return to solid solid structure affords =BUYers a cheap entry 1-3 : a swing low is followed by a one sided highly volitile swing high, this creates two set of events, first is that number 2 is now a solid low, due to surpassing the high of 1 they are proven to be stronger then them , second is the slow and controlled(ish) downtrend that follows volitile moves usually, and returns us back to number 2 low which gieves us a very good low risk opportunity
3-4 : a return to solid structure provides a high RR opporutnity with proven buyers behind us
* what do I think will happen ?
* if the current bar goes higher than the previous, making a higher high in the lower fractal structure, I would like to see the next leg up
* if we fail to do so and continue down, I could see us having a decently volitile run down to the support at the higher fractal structure
* as far as divergence goes : we have hidden divergence on all 3 of
RSI, MFI and accumulation/distribution indicators
* MFI and RSI are also oversold which is a good indication here as price action is not too volitile, so its a good signal
* using the chaos theory indicator we can see that over the past 2,500 bars, if price closes above a zone we have a 55% chance it will go to the next zone on that way, this is better than a coin flip but not by much, it does give us a chance to break even once we pass one of the zones , because if price comes back down we have a 67% chance of coming back to the genesis of the trade, which I don't particularily like.
Daytrading Risk Management Strategy Hold Until CloseAfter reviewing my past 500 trades, the absolute most profitable trade management is to hold until market close. If you study the daily chart, most days will close near the highs/lows of the bar.
By only using just a stop loss and no profit target, one can capture monster moves.
One trade per day, win or loss.
Wins will be small 1-2R wins or giant 3-8R wins
Losses will be small half R losses or simple 1R losses
5-10% of the trades should make up 90% of profits.
Most trading months offer around 8-10 really great setups on Dow Jones. The other 10-12 days should be on the sidelines in cash, waiting.
To really stay in the game, simple 1 or 2R wins WILL NOT cut it.
One has to pay for:
Small Losses
Commissions
Fees
Taxes
Spreads
End of Day Hold Until Close Trade Management maximizes profits and routinely produces 30-40R gains per month.
Go through your own past trades and see if holding until 4pm EST would have yielded substantially more profits vs what you have achieved with your current management. I know I did and I am floored.
Some Examples:
These are all trades that could have been taken. My point is if just using a simple 2 to 1, the profit would have been SUBSTANTIALLY LESS than Hold till Close.
DJIA – U.S. Stock Market Corrects UpwardTrend: Upward correction after rejection from 45,220.0.
Current price: 44,794.0.
⸻
Bullish scenario
• Entry: BUY STOP 45,280.0
• Target: 46,480.0
• Stop: 44,800.0
Bearish scenario
• Entry: SELL STOP 44,190.0
• Target: 42,880.0
• Stop: 44,800.0
⸻
Key levels
Support: 44,190.0, 42,880.0
Resistance: 45,280.0, 46,480.0
Indicators
• EMA (Alligator): still pointing upward, but narrow range.
• AO histogram: correctional bars just below zero.
⸻
📌 Breakout above 45,280.0 → continuation to 46,480.0. Failure and close below 44,190.0 → decline toward 42,880.0.
a return to solid support with bullish activity = BUY 1. sellers push us down after a strong volitile uptrend
2. buyers here push up creating the high 3 , this is higher
than the sellers entrance at 1, therefore 2 is now a solid low,
as it defeated the sellers from 1
3. we get an expected pullback after a one sided highly volitile
move to the upside, a return to 2 now is very good for the end of the
pullback and the next leg up
* what do I think will happen next
* we have a small stop loss at 2 , and we have a logical pullback at 3 ,
this to me seems like we should go up now , as per trend.
* we have a staggering 79% follow through rate if price closes on one side,
to reach the next orange zone, so I will breakeven once price
exits the next orange zone above us to the top, TP at that target. You can
manually verify this by reducing the lookback period and counting. we only count tradable follow throughs
* as far as divergences go, the bullish divergence is there for mfi and accumulation / distribution,
through rsi has both divergences for buy and sell,
we can ignore this kind of behaviour
*i'm going to buy, stop below 2 and tp at the next
zone target.
MYM (Micro Dow Jones Index Futures) Trade Setup – 3H TimeframeMYM: Bearish Setup at Major Resistance with Fading Bullish Momentum
MYM has recently broken above the 44,230–44,450 support-turned-resistance zone and the downtrend line originating from its July 28, 2025 all-time high. This bullish move, triggered in part by the August 12 major news release, extended into the 45,000–45,200 resistance area—a historically strong supply zone.
The 3-hour chart highlights that, while the breakout was fueled by strong initial volume, the subsequent advance toward resistance has been accompanied by gradually declining positive volume. This pattern suggests waning buying pressure and a potential shift in control toward sellers at current levels.
Illustrative Setup: A Sell Stop order at 44,960 positions the entry just below the psychological 45,000 mark, aiming to capture a reversal from the current resistance zone. A Stop Loss at 45,200 is placed above the upper boundary of resistance, providing a clear invalidation point for the bearish thesis. The Take Profit target at 44,450 aligns with the top of the nearest support zone (44,230–44,450), offering an attractive 2.13:1 reward-risk ratio.
Key considerations: The confluence of a major resistance zone and fading bullish volume provides multiple technical factors supporting a pullback scenario. However, given the psychological weight of the 45,000 level, some consolidation may occur before any decisive move. Traders should closely monitor price behavior at resistance for confirmation and remain mindful of broader market sentiment.
This analysis is provided solely for educational and entertainment purposes and does not constitute any form of financial or investment advice. Always manage your risk and trade responsibly.
MYM Tokyo Open Battle Line: 44,367 Under SiegeHeading into the Tokyo open on MYM, price is pressing against the 44,367 resistance a level that has now rejected twice intraday.
From a structural standpoint, we’re trading within a rising short-term trend line, but momentum into this high has been relatively shallow, suggesting a potential fade setup. On the bearish side, a rejection from 44,367 would likely send price back to the 50% retracement at 44,250, with a further extension to the 100% retrace at 44,133 if sellers maintain control.
This aligns with the repeated supply reaction and the lack of impulsive buying volume I’m assigning this path a 65% probability. On the bullish side, a decisive break and sustained hold above 44,367 opens the door for continuation into the next liquidity pocket (44,420–44,450), targeting prior volume imbalance fill. This scenario requires follow-through during the typically thinner Tokyo session, so I’m giving it a 35% probability. In short I’m leaning bearish unless we see a clean breakout and hold above the high, at which point the bias flips long.
Mean Reversion Around 250. Buy at 00's and Sell 500I can see price mean reversion around 250. Therefore, buy the lows and sell the highs.
500 as resistance and 00's as support.
So far, the peak formation is at the low of August, therefore, the trend is bullish.
I am expecting a run of the high then a dump to 44,000 before the continuation of the bull trend
Dow Futures (YM) Nearing Final Push Before Significant RetreatThe Dow Futures (YM) cycle, initiated from the April 2025 low, has reached a mature phase and could conclude soon. We anticipate one final push higher to complete the impulsive cycle from that low. As shown on the one-hour chart, wave (3) of this impulse peaked at 45,312. The subsequent wave (4) pullback concluded at 43,467, forming a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From wave (3), wave A dropped to 44,418, wave B rallied to 44,852, and wave C fell to 43,467, finalizing wave (4). The Index has since turned upward in wave (5), but it must surpass the wave (3) high of 45,312 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.
Currently, wave (5) is unfolding as a lower-degree impulse. From wave (4), wave ((i)) reached 43,864, followed by a wave ((ii)) pullback to 43,542. The Index then advanced in wave ((iii)). From wave ((ii)), wave (i) hit 43,997, and wave (ii) corrected to 43,881. We expect a few more highs before wave 1 of (5) completes. A wave 2 pullback should follow, but the Index will likely resume its ascent afterward. As long as the pivot low at 43,467 holds, dips should attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swings, supporting further upside in the near term.
Asia Range Breakout - The trap and the entryDescription:
This chart illustrates a textbook Asia Session Range breakout, highlighting both the manipulative trap and the ideal entry based on the SquawkTradeFX strategy.
🔹 Asia Session Range (Grey Box):
This tight consolidation forms overnight during the Asia session.
Price oscillates within a narrow high/low range, creating the trap zone.
This is the “wick zone” of the eventual daily candle.
🔹 The Trap — Liquidity Sweep:
Notice how price first fakes a breakout to the upside, breaking above the Asia High.
This is a liquidity grab, targeting early breakout buyers and triggering their stop-losses.
🔹 The Confirmation & Entry:
After the upside trap, price quickly reverses, sweeping back down.
Momentum increases and volume picks up as price breaks below the Asia Low.
This break signals a true shift in directional intent and offers a high-probability entry as the daily body forms.
🟢 Entry Zone:
Entry is taken on the bearish breakout of the Asia Low after the sweep.
Ideally confirmed with strong bearish candle structure and volume from the London or NY session.
📌 Why This Matters:
This setup exemplifies the SquawkTradeFX principle:
“Let the traps spring first — then strike with confirmation.”
#DJI Futures Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Around Pivot 44,736Date: 14-07-2025
📊 Current Price: 44,645
📍 Pivot Point: 44,736.00
🔼 Upside / Bullish Scenario
If the price sustains above the pivot point (44,736), it could target the following resistance and bullish targets:
Immediate Resistance: 45,305.40
Target 1: 45,708.70
Target 2: 46,112.00
Target 3: 46,628.00
Target 4: 47,144.00
Bullish Bias Trigger: A break and hold above 45,305.40 increases confidence in these targets.
🔽 Downside / Bearish Scenario
If the price moves and holds below the pivot, the focus shifts to support levels and bearish targets:
Immediate Support: 44,170.04
Target 1: 43,765.02
Target 2: 43,360.00
Target 3: 42,844.00
Target 4: 42,328.00
Bearish Bias Trigger: A break below 44,170.04 opens the door to these downside levels.
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