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Bitcoin Futures (Mar 2027)

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max pain in sight for the bullsgm, i've been entertaining a few ideas on btc, and this one comes to mind today. the possibility of 1 more leg down, to take the rest of the longs that fomoed into the rally this week, and the few who managed to survive the drop from ath by averaging down mindlessly. --- the way we bounced is very reminiscent of a wave 4. btc is teethering on the edge of a negative funding rate (our favorite contrarian indicator) by creating one more low, we will for certain print a massive, multi-week negative funding reading, and that's when a proper buy could take place. --- i have personally decided to fade the rally, and have de-risked quite substantially from the positions i managed to pick up near the lows. --- in my opinion, the path of maximum pain is a sweep of that notorious 75k level that everyone keeps talking about. --- --- 🎯 - 75k
CME:BTC1!
by lunarsyndicate9
4
BTC CME: Key Level Retest and Liquidity SweepBTC CME demonstrated strong growth today on increased volume, reaching last week’s highs and sweeping liquidity. Currently, the asset is trading directly inside last week’s high zone. I’m waiting for today’s daily close to define the next direction. Bullish scenario: Daily close above the level with confirmation. Neutral scenario: Daily close below the level and continued trading under it keeps the outlook at 50/50. Market structure at this level remains critical — the daily close will set the tone.
CME:BTC1!
by GrandMaster_Trade
1
Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!) – DSRTL‑ML Weak Dip at supportMicro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!) – DSRTL‑ML Weak Dip at S4–D5 Support We are analyzing the weekly structure of Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!) using the institutional DSRTL‑ML support/resistance engine. On this bar the indicator classifies the state as WEAK DIP with a Neutral/Bearish bias and the system message: Testing support, oversold short-term. This reading comes from the current matrix position S4–D5 on the Matrix Map and defines the context for the price action inside this support zone. 1. DSRTL Matrix Diagnosis – State S4–D5 S4 – Static Support in Control Price is trading inside the DSRTL Static Support band: Static S: 84.47K – 96.14K In the logic of DSRTL‑ML, this green support zone marks a historical high‑volume demand node where passive buy liquidity has previously absorbed aggressive selling. It behaves as a structural floor rather than a neutral price area. D5 – Overshoot Below the Dynamic Channel At the same time, price is positioned below the 5‑Point Dynamic Channel: Dynamic Band: 96.41K – 132.03K State D5 describes a downside extension beneath the lower boundary of the dynamic channel. Within this framework, that move is read as an oversold displacement away from the equilibrium path of the trend geometry, not as a fully confirmed new downtrend on its own. Combined Reading – WEAK DIP with Neutral/Bearish Bias The overlap of: price sitting inside Static Support S4, and price being oversold relative to the Dynamic Channel (D5) produces the WEAK DIP classification. The Neutral/Bearish bias tells us that the dominant leg into this area is still downward, but the current candle represents a weaker phase of that dip occurring directly into a pre‑defined demand floor. 2. Key DSRTL Levels on This Chart From the Levels and System panels on the chart: Static Resistance (Supply Block): 111K – 117.17K Upper structural ceiling derived from the DSRTL matrix of historical volume and price interaction. Static Support (Demand Block): 84.47K – 96.14K The active S4 floor where the current weekly bar is developing. Dynamic Channel (Trend Geometry): 96.41K – 132.03K The 5‑Point trend channel that defines the dynamic path of price; its lower edge around 96.41K is the first mean‑reversion checkpoint above the market. Volume Metrics on This Bar: Buying volume (▲): 290.18K Selling volume (▼): 258.91K Total volume (Σ): 549.09K Delta volume (Δ): +31.27K The positive delta together with the WEAK DIP label supports the idea that, inside S4, aggressive selling is meeting responsive buying rather than progressing as a fresh impulsive breakdown. 3. My Structural View Based on DSRTL‑ML From a structural perspective, I read this configuration as follows: Context of the Trend The Neutral/Bearish bias confirms that the larger move into this zone is still a downward leg. The market is not flagged by DSRTL‑ML as a confirmed bullish reversal; instead, we are in a weak phase of the decline, pressing into defined support while the geometry is stretched. Support Floor and Invalidation As long as weekly closes remain above roughly 84.5K – the lower boundary of the S4 block – I consider this area a working demand floor for the current sequence. A decisive weekly close below that level would invalidate the weak‑dip narrative and shift the focus to a more developed breakdown of support. Primary Path While S4 Holds If S4 continues to hold, my expectation is that the oversold S4–D5 state will tend to resolve through mean reversion back toward the lower edge of the Dynamic Channel around 96.41K. In DSRTL terms, that is the first structural magnet above price once an overshoot has occurred. Next Reference Above the Channel Should price manage to re‑enter and hold inside the Dynamic Channel, the next major reference becomes the Static Resistance block at 111K – 117.17K. In my view, that zone represents the upper boundary of the current weekly structure and the area where I would expect supply and volatility to increase again. In short, DSRTL‑ML currently maps MBT1! as a weak dip into S4 support with a still‑bearish background trend. My directional view is that, while this support holds, the structure favors a corrective mean‑reversion phase toward the dynamic band rather than an immediate continuation breakdown, with any weekly close below the S4 floor acting as a clear structural invalidation. Indicator used for this analysis: DSRTL‑ML (Dynamic Support & Resistance Trend Logic). Disclaimer: This publication expresses my personal opinion on the MBT1! chart based solely on the DSRTL‑ML indicator and standard price/volume analysis. It is not financial or investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
CME:MBT1!Long
by ata_sabanci
Different Timeframe Analysis - Bitcoin Back in July, I did a tutorial identifying the 120,000 level as a potential peak for Bitcoin, with the possibility of an open correction. Bitcoin subsequently formed a double top before pulling back to its recent low. In my view, Bitcoin should continue to trend along this parallel channel. Monthly analysis indicating support is near, I am refining it to daily analysis for more precision on its entry. Video version on this tutorial: Mirco Bitcoin Futures and Options Ticker: MBT Minimum fluctuation: $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 per contract Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by konhow
Bitcoin Futures Approach Crucial Triangle Structure Bitcoin CME futures are forming a technical pattern that points to a period of consolidation before a potential upward surge, provided that key support levels remain intact. Recent price action indicates the development of a Wave 4 triangle, a structure that often appears when markets pause before continuing their primary trend. The lower boundary of this formation sits near $80,800, which serves as a pivotal support level. A decisive drop below this threshold would disrupt the triangle scenario and suggest that the market may be preparing for a deeper pullback. The decline into the $83,870 region aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, a level commonly associated with Wave 3 completion. The subsequent movements from this area resemble an A B C corrective bounce, reinforcing the idea that the market is testing the early stages of a compressing triangle. If this pattern continues to mature, traders may observe a series of contracting swings labeled C, D and E. A breakout from the final swing would serve as confirmation that the larger bullish trend is resuming. The broader Wave 5 outlook has an invalidation level near $103,735, and a sustained move above this region would signal renewed momentum. The projected Wave 5 target area spans $97,170 to $113,505, corresponding to the 0.5 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracements. Within this range, the 0.618 level at $103,605 stands out as a key price marker that may attract significant interest if bullish pressure returns. Conversely, if support at $80,800 fails to hold, attention would shift to the deeper Wave 5 target zone between $74,205 and $67,380, marked by the negative 0.236 to negative 0.5 Fibonacci extensions. For now, Bitcoin appears to be balancing between consolidation and continuation. Whether this evolving structure resolves higher or signals a larger corrective phase will likely set the tone for the next major move in the futures market.
CME:BTC1!
by Kap_Waves
BTC CME Futures: The Capitulation Buy SetupSimply: The logic here is simple. Bitcoin has dropped too far and too fast. We are currently hitting a major mathematical exhaustion point (the 2.5 Standard Deviation line). At the same time, we are entering that big blue support box between 78k and 82k where the massive rally started earlier this year. This is not a crash anymore; it is a bear trap. Retail traders are panic selling right at the bottom, which provides the liquidity for big players to buy. We are setting a limit order to catch the final wick down before the bounce. Entry: 81,250 (Buy Limit) Stop Loss: 77,500 (If it goes below here, the setup is wrong) Target: 94,000 (The bounce back to equilibrium) Don't chase the red candles. Let the price come to you, fill the order, and wait for the squeeze. ​____ Advanced: The algorithm is currently executing a terminal volatility expansion into the 2.5 Standard Deviation extremity to finalize the Macro Sell Model and engineer a generational Smart Money Reversal. The present liquidation cascade is not a crash but a precise, mathematically ordained delivery of price into the deep discount 'Blue Box' accumulation array to harvest the final sell-side liquidity before the grand repricing event. ​ Entry: 81,250.00 (Limit Order - 4,000 points below market) Stop loss: 77,500.00 (3,750 points) Take profit: 94,000.00 (12,750 points) Risk to reward ratio: 3.40R ​ The Opportunity The Bitcoin algorithm has been running a high-velocity sell program from the 126,000.00 highs, systematically dismantling every bullish PD Array. However, we have now breached the Event Horizon. The price is magnetically drawn to the confluence of the 2.5 Standard Deviation projection and the historical Accumulation Block (78k-82k) originating from the early 2025 impulse. This zone represents the 'Algorithmic Floor'—a region of maximum discount where institutional order flow must pivot from distribution to accumulation to close massive short positions and defend the macro bull trend. ​ The Entry Do not chase the current candle. The algorithm demands a touch of the 2.5 Standard Deviation level at approximately 80,800.00 - 81,200.00 to complete the fractal expansion. We place our limit order at 81,250.00 to front-run the absolute mathematical bottom, capitalizing on the 'Capitulation Wick' that will clear the final trailing stops. This entry is timed for the CME close/open gap or the weekend volatility injection, which often targets these extreme deviation levels to trap late bears before a violent Monday reversal. ​ The Invalidation The reversal thesis is ontologically corrupted if price displaces below the 3.0 Standard Deviation level and the bottom of the accumulation block at 74,000.00. A sustained closure below this level signifies a total failure of the macro structure and a transition into a secular bear market, invalidating the accumulation narrative. This would shift the probability manifold to the Primary Antithetical Chain, targeting the 60,000.00 liquidity void. ​ Key Trajectory Waypoints Target 1: 86,000.00 | Type: Immediate Rebalance (2.25 SD) | Probability: 90% | ETA: 24 Hours Target 2: 90,500.00 | Type: Internal Bearish Breaker | Probability: 75% | ETA: 3-5 Days Target 3: 94,000.00 | Type: Equilibrium / FVG Fill | Probability: 60% | ETA: 1-2 Weeks The Shadow Reality A 25% probability exists for the antithetical reality: The Abyss Cascade. In this scenario, the 2.5 SD level fails to provide a reaction, and the algorithm enters a 'Free Fall' discovery mode targeting the 3.0 SD at 74,000.00 immediately. This reality is confirmed if price slices through 80,000.00 with no wick response. ___ tags: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
CME:BTC1!Long
by TradeConfirmed
Two great trades that would be good for beginners11 28 25 the exchanges are having some problems and some of the exchanges are at least temporarily closed so be aware. A few weeks ago I asked Bobby to find me some easier trades to take because he's starting to trade and he's not going to be able to trade the large contract on gold or silver he has to go to more realistic setups. We found two of them and you should take some time on a silver tray set up and one other trade that we haven't really talked about introducing it a few weeks earlier
CME:BTC1!
by ScottBogatin
BTC at a Crossroad: Head & Shoulders or Moonshot? Analyzing the CME Bitcoin Futures chart, we can clearly see confirmation of the price gap between $92K and $94K, which significantly increases the probability of a Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation. ✅ Key Scenarios to Watch Scenario 1 – H&S Confirmed: Potential retracement toward $52K–$62K based on the right shoulder's depth Scenario 2 – Failure H&S Confirmed: Bullish breakout could push BTC toward $140K–$150K. based on the right shoulder's depth 🔍 Technical Insight The left shoulde r formed near the Fibonacci 0.618 / 0.382 leve ls. Based on these Fib zones, the right shoulder could develop within a similar range—critical for validating the pattern if weekly closure occurs over 94K . Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before making any trading decisions.
CME:BTC1!
by emreyavuz84
Attempting to break out of the bearish structureFibonacci Retracement Analysis The retracement is drawn from the local high of $107,925 to the low of $80,745. Current Battle (0.382 Level): The price ($91,310) is currently piercing through the 0.382 Fib level ($91,130). Significance: This is the first major hurdle for bulls. Closing the daily candle above this level suggests the recovery is sustainable and not just a "dead cat bounce." Next Resistance (0.5 Level): The next target is $94,335. The "Golden Pocket" (0.618 Level): The most critical trend-reversal level is at $97,540. This is often where bearish algos reload their short positions. A break above this level confirms a macro trend shift. Bollinger Bands & Moving Averages Middle Band (20 SMA): The blue line (Middle Band) sits at $96,874. Technical Insight: Notice that the Middle Band is currently above the price. This means the immediate trend is still technically bearish. The price often gravitates toward this mean ($96k) to test it as resistance. Confluence: The Middle Band aligns very closely with the 0.618 Golden Pocket ($97,540). This creates a "confluence zone" of heavy resistance between $96k and $97.5k. The "Red Path" Projection (W-Pattern) Impulse: Price rallies to the confluence zone ($94k - $97k). Correction: Price pulls back to set a Higher Low (likely retesting the $87k - $91k region). Breakout: Price blasts through the previous high of $107,925. Target: The extension target is the 1.618 Fib at $124,720. Diagonal Resistance Break: Look at the thick green line going downwards. The current candle is actively breaking out of this diagonal trendline. This is a classic breakout signal. Critical Levels Cheat Sheet Level Price Action/Note Target 2 (Extension) $124,720 The bullish "Red Path" ultimate goal. Major Resistance $97,540 The 0.618 Golden Pocket (Must break for bull run). Dynamic Resistance $96,874 The Middle Bollinger Band. Immediate Support $91,130 The 0.382 Fib (Needs to hold as new floor). Critical Support $87,160 The 0.236 Fib. Losing this invalidates the rally. Floor $80,745 The recent low.
CME:MBT1!
by hilmiyus
Bitcoin Corrected, What’s Next?Back in July, I did a tutorial identifying the 120,000 level as a potential peak for Bitcoin, with the possibility of an open correction. Bitcoin subsequently formed a double top before pulling back to its recent low. In my view, Bitcoin should continue to trend along this parallel channel. We will discuss why this is the case, and also what may come next for Bitcoin after this correction. Mirco Bitcoin Futures and Options Ticker: MBT Minimum fluctuation: $5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 per contract Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by konhow
BTC Update: The Rollercoaster EditionAttention all chart warriors, candlestick whisperers, and Fibonacci fanatics! If you're reading this trade plan, congratulations — you've officially entered the realm of market prophecy 🚀 BTC Update: The Rollercoaster Edition 🎢 What’s New? Bitcoin is chilling around $86K, like that friend who says “I’m fine” after a breakup but keeps posting cryptic stories. Upper Trendline: Sitting pretty near $90,774 – that’s the “VIP section” where bulls want to party. Break above it, and we’re talking $97K–$104K dreams. Lower Trendline (Breakout Zone): Guarded at $85,500. If BTC slips below this, next stop could be $80K – aka the “budget seats.” Price Action: Currently stuck in a descending channel, but RSI is whispering, “Hey, maybe we’re oversold.” MACD is like that friend who says, “I think things are turning around.” Target: If BTC breaks the upper trendline, $97K–$104K is the next dance floor. If not… well, let’s just say $80K might be the couch we crash on. Fun Fact: Bitcoin’s November mood? Extreme Fear. Basically, the market is acting like someone saw a spider in the bathroom. Good luck, everyone! And hey, don’t forget to smash that like button and drop your wildest market predictions in the comments! ❤️ Disclaimer: My trading strategy isn’t a signal—it’s more like a workout for my brain. I’m just here flexing my market structure knowledge and sharpening my trading skills while building my trade journal. Think of it as financial gym time—no personal trainers, just candlesticks!
CME:MBT1!Short
by mytw0cents
Bitcoin at the Edge – What Comes Next?Over the past couple of months, Bitcoin has been navigating a complex mix of macro shifts, liquidity changes, and sector-specific catalysts that, in our opinion, have pushed the market into a critical decision zone. Sentiment has become increasingly divided: long-term structural bulls remain confident, while short- and medium-term flows have turned more cautious. 1. Recent Developments & Market Sentiment In the past half a year, crypto markets have been influenced by several overlapping narratives. Regulatory tone has eased globally, with more pro-innovation stances emerging in key regions. Political developments—particularly renewed efforts in the U.S. toward clearer crypto frameworks—have added a layer of optimism. Institutional participation has also continued to expand, with ETF flows stabilizing after earlier periods of volatility. Yet despite these supportive headlines, market behavior has shown hesitation and sold off in the past month. In our opinion, this was driven primarily by the resurfacing of Trump’s aggressive tariff threats, reigniting trade-war fears, a sharp drop in expected Fed rate cuts, and massive institutional ETF outflows plus leveraged liquidations. Sentiment has flipped from extreme greed to extreme fear. In our view, the inability to sustain acceptance at recent highs points to exhaustion in the prior uptrend. Overall sentiment is less euphoric and more cautious—this current zone would likely be a battleground between long-term accumulation and shorter-term mean reversion. 2. The Underlying Driving Forces Bitcoin’s medium- and long-term structural drivers remain intact: institutional adoption, the growing integration of digital assets into traditional finance, the post-halving supply dynamics, and Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with broader macro conditions. Macro factors such as real yields, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite continue to play a major role. As markets position for next year’s rate lowering expectations and potential fiscal shifts, Bitcoin, in our opinion, is behaving more like a liquidity-sensitive asset than a speculative outlier. This is especially apparent in how it has reacted to major economic releases and policy signals. The bottomline is that Bitcoin’s major swings are increasingly tied to macro liquidity flows—the same forces that drive equities, especially high-beta tech. Market structure is equally important. Bitcoin’s auction process—how price accepts or rejects value—often drives multi-month cycles. When value areas break or hold, the market tends to transition into new regimes. That is exactly where the market appears to be now. 3. Chart Analysis – A True Decision Area Bitcoin is currently sitting at what we believe is a major inflection point: the 2024 Low-Value Area (LVA), where Bid Block 1 formed in March 2025. This zone acted as the structural base where buyers initiated up to new all-time highs earlier this year. From July to October 2025, the market attempted to accept near the top of the range, with buyers defending Bid Block 2. By mid-October, however, bid support weakened. Longs unwound, driving price back into Bid Block 1 near 84,600, which is confluent with yearly support and the prior trendline break from November 2024. Going into the next quarter, Bitcoin sits atop a critical area of demand. In our opinion, how price responds here could determine whether this pullback stabilizes or it becomes a deeper liquidation phase. Key Levels: 82,000 – 2025 developing low / Bid Block 1 low / 2024 TL breakout 77,000 – 2024 VPOC Bearish Scenario: If buyers cannot recover quickly back above 87,700 (2024 VAH), and bids fail to hold the 81,000–77,000 region, the market may open the door to further long liquidation. That could lead to a move through the 2024 Value Area, potentially targeting the 60,000 region (2024 VAL). Bullish Scenario: If buyers reject strongly up from the 82,000 area, a move through 94,200 (Bid Block 1 high) could shift control back toward buyers. This may open a path toward 100,000/102,550 (2025 developing VAL / Bid Block 2 low), where sellers could be expected. Acceptance above that could set up a move toward 123,050 (2025 developing VAH) and possibly a revisit of the all-time highs. Neutral Scenario: Without any new catalyst, the market may consolidate and form a two-way auction between 99,700 and 82,000 as it digests recent volatility. This could serve as a base for the next directional expansion. In our view, how Bitcoin behaves around this zone will set the tone heading into 2026. I’d love to hear your views—drop your thoughts in the comments and give this post a boost so others can join the discussion. This post reflects our personal market views and is for educational discussion only. It should not be interpreted as financial or trading advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and the levels discussed here may shift as new information emerges. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
CME:MBT1!
by EdgeClear
Bitcoin CME Futures – Key Support Test With a Long-Term Target aBitcoin CME Futures has broken below several Fibonacci levels and is currently reacting inside a major demand zone between 88,000 – 82,000. This area represents the last strong bullish defense before a deeper correction. The sell-off shows strong bearish momentum, but the long lower wick indicates that buyers are beginning to step in. As long as price holds above 82,000, a corrective rebound remains likely. If the market stabilizes here, the next upside levels to watch are: 93,700 (0.236 Fib) 99,700 – 100,000 (0.333 Fib + psychological level) 110,000 (0.5 Fib) 116,200 (0.618 Fib) A daily close below 82,000 would invalidate the support and expose the lower level at 79,000. As long as the demand zone holds, the long-term bullish scenario remains intact, and the final upside target sits at 140,895.
CME:BTC1!
by adham2022
1