NG1! Short-Covering Rally, contract renewal | Aug 27, 2025
Odds: 40% to $2.40-$2.53 (Cuban lower $2.53; 45% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
60% to $3.00-$3.11 (57 EMA $2.81, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.852, above 57 EMA (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, short-covering, and green volume (1000-Tick) eye $3.00-$3.11 by Sep 1, but red volume (12H+) and storage push $2.53 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade: Long Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.86-$2.89 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.53, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.80.
Watch price momentum. Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
Odds: 43% to $2.40-$2.50 (Cuban lower $2.53; 48% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
57% to $3.00-$3.16 (57 EMA $2.82, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.73, at 1D DP (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, green volume (5min/15min/1H/3H/1000-Tick), and seasonal strength eye $3.00-$3.16 by Sep 1, but red volume (5H+) and storage push $2.50 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade: Long: Hold long ($2.80-$2.844), add 20% at $2.67-$2.70 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.50, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
Watch volume, price momentum. Good hunting! #NaturalGas #NG1
NG1! Mixed Signals, choppy action, gap and crack & fill the gap, | Aug 25, 2025
Odds: 46% to $2.40-$2.55 (Cuban lower $2.55; 51% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days) 54% to $3.00-$3.16 (57 EMA $2.84, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.67, at pivot (Big Beluga $2.65). EIA +13 Bcf, green volume (1H/15min), and seasonal strength eye $3.00-$3.16 by Sep 1, but red volume (3H+) and storage push $2.50 if $2.67 fails.
Trade: Long Hold long add 20% at $2.67-$2.70 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop at $2.65.
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.50, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
Watch volume, price momentum, and heating season shift.
NG1! This post is about the risk of 2std movements in the next 30 days. NOT a directional forecast.
TL;DR Don’t see a lot of potential for large price movements in the next 30 days. EU storage is on the edge of concerningly low - which could mean upside if it gets worse.
Otherwise, US storage seems just above normal, although build-up is slower than expected. US gas is extremely cheap relative to EU, but this has not historically sparked large moves.
Not sure why price has been going down. Weather is a gap in my knowledge, but I looked at CDD and HDD, and couldn’t find a correlation to large movements in the last 15 years. Frankly I have no clue on geopolitics, but a peace deal in Russia would definitely drop prices.
Indicators I pay attention to:
1. Weekly US natural gas storage residual: +200 bcf. Nothing extreme, but ample storage limits upside moves.
2. Weekly US natural gas consumption residual: -38 bcf. Slightly slower build up, but not concerning.
3. EU natural has storage residual: -134 TWh. Edge of concerningly low. Could be catalyst for upside if it continues dropping.
4. US natural gas vs EU natural gas prices: Very cheap. Generally not a catalyst for large moves unless it’s very expensive.
5. US Natural Gas Volatility Index: normal levels.
NG1! Holds $2.76, Bullish Tilt Post-EIA | Aug 21, 2025
Odds: 44% to $2.40-$2.57 (Cuban lower $2.57; 49% if $2.67 breaks, 1-3 days)
56% to $3.00-$3.18 (57 EMA $2.88, 1-4 days)
Signal: NG1! at $2.80, holding $2.67 support (Big Beluga $2.68). EIA +13 Bcf (below consensus) and green volume 1000 tick chart eye $3.00-$3.18 by Aug 24, but death cross ($3.18/$3.30) and supply pressure push $2.57 if $2.67 breaks.
Trade: Long Holding long, add at $2.67-$2.70 (target $3.00-$3.05, 1-4 days). Stop on
Hedge (20%): Short if $2.67 breaks (target $2.57, 1-3 days). Stop at $2.76.
NG1! Short-Covering Rally, contract renewal | Aug 27, 2025
