OIL fell sharply, opportunity for upside target of 70$OIL fell sharply and has now been in a contraction for a while, I am taking it into account for a potential breakout, as it shows tightening price action, which reflects market indecision.
Price action has now coiled into a symmetrical triangle, this is often a classic continuation or reversal pattern, and it’s building pressure for a potential breakout. So, if we do get a clean breakout above this pattern, with strong bullish candles, volume, or bullish divergence, that’s your confirmation cue.
This is totally achievable. It aligns beautifully with the 0.25 to 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone from the recent swing high to low. It’s not just a psychological round number, it’s technically supported.
If the lower boundary of the triangle is broken with momentum, you’ve got to step back. No trade is better than a bad one. Watch how price interacts with the zone. If it loses it, you could be looking at a deeper leg down, potentially revisiting deeper support levels from prior bullish structure.
OIL trade ideas
Oil and orasiaConsidering the global oil chart and the twelve-day war in the Middle East, and looking at the global gold chart, the estimates of micro and macro investors indicate a decrease in regional tensions and an end to the war, and there is likely to be a further decline in gold and oil prices.
Hussein M.
OIL Price Forecast – Bearish Outlook OIL Price Forecast – Bearish Outlook
Oil prices have entered a consolidation phase, showing contracted price action—a classic sign of market indecision or a build-up before the next move.
This range-bound behaviour typically precedes a breakout or breakdown.
Given recent global supply-demand dynamics and technical resistance levels, the bias leans toward a bearish continuation.
you may find more details in the chart.
Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
|Symmetrical Triangle| Squeeze in Crude OilCrude oil is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic squeeze formation with price compressed into a tight range. Symmetrical triangles typically act as continuation patterns, favoring the prevailing trend, and in this case, on the daily chart, the trend is well established: a bullish trend with high volume. As the dominant trend is clearly bullish, and volume has remained relatively high throughout the consolidation, it supports furthermore the potential for continuation to the upside.
On the Bollinger band the squeeze is more visible, and suggests diminishing volatility, which is often followed by expansion. Unlike earlier price action before consolidation, recent sessions are exhibiting larger candlestick bodies accompanied by pronounced wicks on both ends. Meaning adding confluence to our potential breakout. These conditions create a buildup of potential momentum in the market, exactly what fuels explosive breakouts when key levels are breached.
Though such pattern can also serve as a reversal signal when broader macro conditions shift.
But, and this is a big but, beyond the chart, the geopolitical context is intensifying. The Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate, and with the most recent reports of direct US involvement, that is the strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, the risk on crude oil is rising. The possibility of Iranian retaliation, introduces serious potential for supply disruption, as any military response or blockade would likely trigger a sharp spike in the price.
This confluence of technical breakout potential and geopolitical instability makes this setup particularly potent. If we get a confirmed breakout above the triangle and a clean close above the 77–79 zone, combined with global uncertainty and potential supply shocks, could put the $84-85 target well within reach in the near term. Beyond that, should geopolitical tension escalate, oil could accelerate toward $90 or even $100.
In short, this is a high-stakes moment. If price does break out, it won’t just be a technical move, it will ride a wave of volume, volatility, and geopolitical narrative.
With all this in mind, one should be watching closely for volume confirmation, breakout structure, and any major headlines from the Middle East as the situation develops.
LCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy PHLCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy Powerhouse
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
LCrude (Ticker AT:Lcrude), which replicates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, has been one of the most volatile assets in 2025. It faces mounting pressure from a growing global supply, cautious demand, and a renewed wave of investment in Latin America—especially in Brazil.
Technical Analysis
Technically, LCrude has lost momentum since the April 2024 highs near $87 per barrel. After breaking the upward trendline in late June, the same daily candle triggered a corrective move toward the $64–$65 range, where it has been trading since. The price entered a downward channel, and the key $66 support was broken decisively. Losing that level opens the door for a drop toward $60 per barrel. On the upside, a recovery above $73 would reignite buying pressure, targeting $78 near the long-term point of control. The support around the $54.72 lows reinforces the view that LCrude is now trading around its mean. Moving average crossovers—where the 200-period MA sits above the 50-period—suggest that price corrections may continue.
Fundamental Analysis
On the macroeconomic front, concerns over economic slowdowns in China and Europe are weighing on demand expectations. At the same time, the outlook for a supply surplus is solidifying, particularly with signals coming from emerging producer countries. One of the most significant developments is the resurgence of Brazilian oil—a silent revolution that could shift the global energy power balance. Brazil, now an external member of OPEC+, has impressed with record discoveries and licensing rounds. Its offshore projects offer an internal rate of return (IRR) close to 26%, among the highest in the world. Sector Experts project that by 2030, Brazil could surpass 5 million barrels per day, placing it among the global top five, just behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the exploration of new frontiers, such as the Foz do Amazonas basin. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that without new discoveries, production could begin to decline after 2030.
Conclusion
LCrude's performance will depend on both technical patterns and fundamental factors tied to geopolitics and the global supply-demand balance. Brazil’s rise on the global energy map and the context of oversupply exert structural bearish pressure on the market. Nonetheless, current levels continue to offer opportunities for traders focused on range strategies and momentum.
*******************************************************************************************
La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
Crude Oil - Major VolatilityDue to what we are seeing between the US, Israel, and Iran - Oil prices have experienced heightened levels of volatility.
Since September '23, Oil has respected a clear series of lower highs, with each touch of the orange trendline marked by a red X. Every attempt higher has been faded — and nothing's changed yet.
The most recent move started with a bull div at the $55 double bottom — this front-ran the escalation between Israel and Iran, sending price rocketing into $77.
At the highs:
Bear div forms on RSI
RSI rejects clean off 70
Daily candles close below orange trendline
Peace talk headlines emerge
Price drops nearly 17% from the top
Now we’re back inside our white box, a strong demand zone from $64–$67.
Depending on how talks go between these countries will determine the next market stricture to develop for crude oil.
If talks go well we could see a breakdown of the $64 level into the $58-$61 range or if the war starts to escalate we could see this $64 level hold and head back up towards the trendline.
Positive market: OIL rises sharply - Important area to watch forThe recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has had a strong ripple effect across all commodities market. Just as we observed with Gold, it’s no surprise we’ve seen oil prices climb as well, given this uncertainty.
If you’ve seen my latest Gold analysis, you’ll understand how market sentiment has turned uneasy, and in times like these are what people trust when everything else feels risky. And naturally, with everything going on, Gold is seeing stronger demand again, and I expect the price to steadily climb and reach new highs because the momentum is unmistakable.
On Friday the 13th, oil prices spiked abruptly before pulling back slightly, showing just how sensitive the market is to potential supply disruptions. What’s fueling this rally is obvious, and it’s the fear around supply from such an important oil-producing area. This creates a great opportunity to take a position.
As you can see in my analysis, the price has recently broken above a key resistance zone and may come back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it would really confirm the bullish bias and make the move towards my anticipated target of 77,50 high probability, towards the next resistance zone level at 77,50 and 79,50.
If the price remains over this support zone, my bullish outlook stays the same. But, if it doesn’t hold above this level we could see a slight pullback before another definitve move up.
In such times, it’s important to watch price action closely especially near key technical levels, and let the market show your next move.
6/16/2025 3:33am PST - PreMarket Analysis - ChatGPTCRUDE OIL FUTURES – 15-Min Chart Analysis (June 16, 2025 – 06:23 UTC-4)
Ticker: OIL (MARKETSCOM)
Current Price: ~$70.97
Trend: Short-term bearish correction after major rally
EMA Signals: Bearish pressure building below 21 EMA, 50 EMA, and at 200 EMA support
🔍 Technical Indicator Summary:
1. Moving Averages
EMA 21 = $72.97
EMA 50 = $72.88
EMA 200 = $70.72 (currently holding as dynamic support)
➡️ Price is squeezed just above the 200 EMA while remaining under key short-term EMAs, signaling temporary bearish control but near potential bounce zone.
2. MACD (12,26,9)
Histogram: Weak bearish momentum (slightly below 0)
Signal line below MACD line but flattening
➡️ Signs of bearish momentum exhaustion. Neutral to slight bullish lean if crossover happens.
3. RSI (14)
RSI = 40.65
Signal line = 49.76
➡️ Approaching oversold territory but not deeply enough to be a reversal signal alone. RSI flattening, suggesting possible price compression before decision.
🔒 Key Price Levels
🔻 Support Zones:
$70.70 (EMA 200) — crucial dynamic support
$70.00 – key horizontal and psychological support
$69.17 / $68.98 – deeper structure supports if $70 fails
🔺 Resistance Zones:
$72.15 (near-term resistance)
$73.39 – local structural peak
$73.99 – key double top zone
🎯 Trade Setup (Next 24 Hours)
✅ Scenario 1: Bounce from EMA 200 (Bullish Reversal)
Conditions for entry:
RSI climbs above 45 and MACD bullish crossover confirmed
Price holds $70.70 and reclaims $71.50+ on healthy volume
Entry:
📈 Buy breakout above $71.50 (confirmation above local lower high)
🎯 TP1: $72.20
🎯 TP2: $73.30
🛑 SL: $70.40 (below 200 EMA and recent low)
❌ Scenario 2: Breakdown Below $70.70 (Bearish Continuation)
Conditions:
MACD histogram expands red again
RSI drops under 38
Price closes below $70.70 with increasing volume
Entry:
📉 Short below $70.60
🎯 TP1: $70.00
🎯 TP2: $69.20
🛑 SL: $71.30 (above minor consolidation)
📊 Probability Forecast (Next 24h):
Scenario Probability Rationale
✅ Bullish Reversal 60% - EMA 200 historically strong bounce zone
MACD flattening
Price holding horizontal + dynamic support |
| ❌ Bearish Continuation | 40% | - Price below all short-term EMAs
Macro structure still shows lower highs
Breakdown below 200 EMA could trigger quick selloff to $70 / $69.2 |
🧠 Strategic Insight:
Buyers are defending EMA 200; short-term bears running out of steam.
Wait for RSI & MACD confirmation — price may range 1–3 more candles.
Low-risk long possible if we see price reclaim $71.50 with volume.
Israel creates a risk-off environmentThe current geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and this is creating a risk-off environment, forcing investors to worry. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
TVC:USOIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Crude Oil DTF Technical & Fundamental AnalysisCrude Oil DTF Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Oil prices surged by 6–10% within minutes, with Brent and WTI recording the largest daily gains since May 2022. This spike followed Israel's airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, which reportedly killed senior commanders and scientists. Iran, which plays a top oil player and gatekeeper of the Strait of Hormuz—a passageway for nearly 20% of global oil supply—has declared a state of emergency, and any retaliation that threatens tanker movement or damages infrastructure in key Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq) could push oil prices toward $120+/barrel as a risk premium is being priced in.
On the technical side (DTF): Price broke the major key support level at 67.00, followed by accumulation and heavy sell positioning. As expected, price hunted for liquidity and triggered sell-side stop losses. However, due to the sudden geopolitical news, price failed to break lower and instead spiked, breaking the next minor resistance level at 72.00, indicating a change of character.
Currently, we are watching for accumulation above the breakout, expecting a liquidity grab below the liquidity zone, then a move up toward distribution. Our area of interest lies at 73.40, after liquidity is formed and a minor key level is broken. Stop loss is set at 68.40 (below liquidity), and take profit at 84.20, the next minor key resistance.
Fundamental Outlook:
Middle East Tensions
-Israel launched airstrikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites (Tehran, Natanz, IRGC headquarters).
-Key IRGC generals and nuclear scientists reported killed.
-Iran declared a state of emergency and is expected to retaliate imminently.
Supply Risk – Strait of Hormuz
-Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for ~20% of global oil supply.
-Any military action or blockades here could immediately tighten global supply and trigger a surge toward $100–$120/barrel.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
WTI oil has approached a key area of resistanceThe technical picture of WTI oil shows that the commodity is now near one of its key downside resistance lines. Could we get a break, or trendline will remain intact?
Let's dig in!
TVC:USOIL
MARKETSCOM:OIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
What to expect from WTI oil in the near term?We are currently not doing anything with WTI oil, but monitoring it very closely.
Let's dig in!
TVC:USOIL
MARKETSCOM:OIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Crude Oil Futures: Cup and Handle Pattern 4hCUP FORMATION
Start Date: April 27, 2025, 22:01
Bottom Date: May 4, 2025, 22:01
Bottom Price: $55.34 (exact)
Cup Duration: 15 days
Cup Depth: $8.66
Cup Shape: Rounded, symmetrical U-formation
Right Rim: $64.00 (May 12)
HANDLE FORMATION
Start Date: May 12, 2025, 10:01
Current Price: $61.68
Upper Boundary: Descending trendline from $64.00
Lower Boundary: Descending trendline near $60.40
Handle Depth: ~$3.30 (38% of cup depth)
Current Pattern: Downward-sloping consolidation
PATTERN MEASUREMENTS
Cup Low to Rim: $8.66 ($64.00 - $55.34)
Current Resistance: ~$63.00 (descending trendline)
Target Projection: $71.66 - $72.23 (breakout point + cup depth)
TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS
Smooth, rounded bottom (not V-shaped)
Handle forming in upper half of cup (bullish)
Handle depth less than 50% of cup depth (ideal)
Handle showing typical flagging pattern
Clear, well-defined pattern boundaries
The pattern will complete with a breakout above the descending resistance line, currently at approximately $64.00.
TA on WTI Oil - 2025.05.14Quick technical analysis on WTI oil.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
OIlA "double bottom buy stop" strategy is a trading approach based on technical analysis. It involves identifying a specific chart pattern known as a "double bottom," which consists of two consecutive troughs at approximately the same price level separated by a peak. The strategy entails placing a buy stop order above the peak that separates the two bottoms. This order is triggered if the price surpasses that level, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Traders often use additional tools and indicators to confirm the pattern and manage risk effectively.
CRUDE OIL I Weekly CLS I KL - Breaker I |Model 1 to 50%Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 7 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution.
---
1. Context & Market Structure:
- The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction.
- Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure.
- The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend.
---
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones:
- Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind.
- The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection.
- The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution.
---
3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
- 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection.
- 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher.
- These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation.
---
4. Anticipated Move:
- The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside.
- The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur.
- The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes.
---
5. Trade Idea Narrative:
- This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend.
- The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone.
- Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment.
---
Summary:
Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
OIL/ BUY 30m chart analysisChart Analysis Summary:
The price is currently around 61.46.
You've marked a demand zone between approximately 60.11 – 60.50, suggesting a strong buy interest in that area.
The chart shows a projected bullish move with a strong red arrow pointing toward 65.00+.
The projection includes a breakout, a possible pullback, then continuation to higher levels.
Trade Setup (Buy Setup):
1. Entry Point:
Look for buy entries in the demand zone, ideally around:
Entry: 60.11 – 60.50
(Wait for bullish confirmation — engulfing candle, bullish divergence, or other signals in that zone.)
2. Stop Loss (SL):
Just below the demand zone:
SL: 59.50
3. Take Profit 1 (TP1):
At the structure or resistance level shown before pullback:
TP1: 63.50
4. Final Target:
As indicated by your arrow projection:
Final TP: 65.50 – 66.00