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Traders Go Quiet Ahead of Jackson Hole — What Will Powell Say?Markets have been eerily quiet this week. Not because traders suddenly discovered meditation, but because everyone is waiting for one man in Wyoming to make things move. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” is about to step onto the stage at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. And when he does, markets will hang on every word — because it’s his final speech as Fed boss at the premium event. ⛰️ Jackson Hole: Where Hiking Boots Meet Basis Points The Jackson Hole conference isn’t your average PowerPoint snoozefest. Each year, central bankers from around the world swap suits for Patagonia fleeces and gather in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Think Davos, but with more elk. This year’s theme? “Labor Markets in Transition.” Translation: the Fed wants to talk demographics, productivity, and immigration — the forces shaping how Americans work and how the economy grows. But make no mistake: nobody’s tuning in for a TED Talk on labor force participation rates. They want Powell’s take on interest rates. 🎯 Powell’s Big Moment Powell’s speech may only run about 15 minutes (he’s not known for monologues), but the stakes couldn’t be higher. His term as Fed chair ends in May, and President Donald Trump has spent most of this year taking swings at him — calling him a “major LOSER” and grumbling that the Fed is moving “Too Late” on rate cuts. Trump has even floated the idea of firing Powell early, which, technically speaking, isn’t supposed to happen. But this is 2025, and “not supposed to happen” has lost most of its meaning. So, Jackson Hole could be Powell’s last best chance to lock in a legacy: defending the Fed’s independence while signaling where rates are headed next. ⛅️ Markets Already Have a Guess Wall Street isn’t exactly sitting in suspense. Interest-rate swaps are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with two full cuts baked in before the year is out. Why? Because the data leaves Powell little wiggle room: Jobs market: Recent revisions show weaker-than-thought employment growth . Maximum employment? Not quite. Inflation: July’s consumer price index came in at 2.7% year-on-year — stable, but not scary enough to justify keeping rates where they are forever. Tariffs: Trump’s sweeping duties could pressure inflation further, but they’re also weighing on growth. Powell’s challenge is threading the needle between those forces. Translation: the Fed looks ready to flip from “higher for longer” to “cutting season.” 🧘‍♂️ Traders on Mute If you think markets look a little sleepy, you’re not wrong. On Monday, the S&P 500 basically took a nap , slipping 0.01% as traders sat on their hands. Tuesday was even worse with big tech nosediving all day long. It’s not just Powell they’re waiting for. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, (mandatory note: catch all earnings dates in the Earnings Calendar ) with more than 80% beating expectations. Companies have been surprisingly nimble, offsetting tariffs and riding the weaker dollar . Yet despite the blowout earnings season, nobody wants to make big moves until Powell clears the air. Call it the pre-Jackson Hole silence — the calm before the potential volatility storm. 🥊 Powell vs. Trump There’s also political theater baked into this. Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates to juice growth and pump markets. Powell, however, has tried to keep the Fed above the political fray. But that balancing act has been messy. Lower too quickly, and Powell risks stoking more inflation. Hold too high, and he risks slowing the labor market just as it’s showing cracks. Either way, he’ll be accused of playing politics. This isn’t just about economics. It’s about central bank independence — a fancy way of asking: Can Powell make decisions without getting steamrolled by the White House? 🔮 What to Watch For Here’s what traders will parse in his speech: Tone: Does Powell sound more dovish (hinting at cuts) or still hawkish (concerned about tariffs fueling inflation)? Framework: Will he unveil a new policy strategy for inflation and jobs? Forward guidance: Any nods to September’s meeting or beyond will be amplified a thousand times on trading desks worldwide. In other words, the market doesn’t just want Powell’s words. It wants the subtext and the context. 🚀 Why It Matters for Traders For traders (yes, you), Powell’s Jackson Hole moment has real portfolio consequences: Equities: A dovish Powell could extend the market’s record run — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq already logged new all-time highs this summer. Bonds: Rate cuts could mean yields falling, bond prices rising. Treasuries might not be the snooze trade they’ve been. Dollar: Lower rates could push the greenback down, offering a boost to commodities and emerging markets. Lower rates = lower deposit yields = less appeal to hold greenback. Crypto: Yes, even Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD cares. A dovish Fed means more liquidity sloshing around — which historically finds its way into risk assets. 🏁 The Takeaway Markets are quiet now, but don’t expect them to stay that way. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is shaping up as one of the most important of his career — maybe his swan song as Fed chair. Off to you : Here’s a question (or two). Will he go dovish, handing traders the rate cuts they crave? Or will he stand firm, reminding everyone that the Fed won’t be bullied by politics? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
18
Cognitive Biases on the Chart: Spot Them Before They Cost YouMarkets have enough enemies: central banks, unexpected earnings misses, rogue tweets from billionaires. The last thing you need is your own brain quietly kneecapping your trades. Yet, that’s exactly what happens every day — traders falling prey to cognitive biases, those sneaky mental shortcuts that can distort judgment, inflate confidence, and drain your account. Let’s pull back the curtain on the biggest culprits. 💍 Anchoring Bias: Marrying a Trade Ever fall in love with a number? Traders do this all the time. Anchoring bias happens when you fixate on a past price and let it lead your present decisions. Example: You bought C3 AI NYSE:AI at $45 a pop. Now it’s under $20, and you refuse to sell because “it’ll get back to $50 and beyond.” Newsflash: the market doesn’t care about your entry. Anchoring keeps you tethered to arbitrary price points while the trend moves on without you. 👉 How to counter it : Use hard data, not nostalgia. If the chart screams breakdown, like the recent drop in NYSE:AI thanks to a sales disaster , stop waiting for a magical return to your anchor. Trade the price action, not the ghost of your buy button. 😌 Loss Aversion: Pain > Pleasure Behavioral economists tell us that losing $100 feels about twice as bad as winning $100 feels good. Traders know this instinctively — which is why they often let losers run and cut winners short. Think of it: you close a trade that’s up 5% because you “don’t want to lose the gains.” Meanwhile, you let the -20% red candle sit there because “it’s only a loss if I sell.” 👉 How to counter it : Flip the script. Place stop-losses and honor them religiously, especially in peak earnings season . Train your brain to view losses as part of the game — like paying rent to the market for playing on its field. Or tuition fee for your hands-on education. 🔊 Confirmation Bias: The Echo Chamber Trade You think Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is going to $5,000. So, naturally, you seek out influencers, news, and even memes that validate your thesis, while conveniently ignoring that pesky Fed statement hinting at liquidity tightening. This is confirmation bias: curating your information diet to make yourself feel smart, secure, and validated. 👉 How to counter it : Actively hunt for disconfirming evidence. If you’re long, force yourself to read the bear case. If it rattles you, that’s a sign your conviction might be built on shaky ground. Also, Ethereum has indeed been on a pump so strong , you’d believe it’s almost unstoppable. 💫 Recency Bias: Yesterday = Forever Markets swing, sometimes violently. Recency bias tricks you into believing that whatever just happened will keep happening. The FX:GBPUSD advanced last Thursday ? Must keep climbing further. Traders caught in this loop over-leverage into recent patterns, forgetting that markets are professional curveball pitchers. 👉 How to counter it : Zoom out. Intraday candles may trick you into seeing things that aren’t there in the long run. Daily, weekly and monthly charts often tell a different story. 💪 Gambler’s Fallacy: “I’m Due” Syndrome Every roulette player knows this one: if red’s hit five times in a row, black must be next. Traders fall for the same illusion. If FX:EURUSD has surged for eight straight sessions , surely it must drop… right? Wrong. The market doesn’t know it “owes anything.” Trends can persist longer than your margin account can survive. Reminder time: John Maynard Keynes' famously said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 👉 How to counter it : Respect momentum. Use indicators like RSI or moving averages to spot genuine exhaustion, not just wishful thinking. 😎 Overconfidence Bias: I’m Smarter Than Them This one’s pretty widespread. After a few wins, traders start believing they’ve cracked the code. Suddenly, leverage dials up, position sizes balloon, and risk management gets left on read. Markets love humbling overconfident traders. That “can’t miss” setup? It misses. That oversized bet? Blown up. Overconfidence is why many promising traders don’t survive past year one. 👉 How to counter it : Journal your trades . Cold, hard data has a way of deflating ego bubbles. And size positions consistently — the market doesn’t care if you “feel” more confident this time. 🐑 Herd Mentality: Everyone Can’t Be Wrong… Right? If all of Reddit says “buy the dip,” surely they can’t be wrong. But if you’re hearing it from everyone, odds are the move already happened. Herd mentality gives comfort but rarely alpha. It explains bubbles, FOMO runs, and why traders pile into a hot stock minutes before it tanks. 👉 How to counter it : If you’re chasing a move because everyone else is, pause. Ask: what’s my actual edge here? If the answer is “none,” step away. 💯 The Meta-Bias: Thinking You Have None The cruel twist? Once you know about these biases, you might think you’ve conquered them. But that may not be the case. Awareness helps, but biases are hardwired into human behavior. That’s why risk management exists. Stop-losses, adequate leverage, proper diversification — they’re not just tools, they’re counter-bias survival kits. 🙌 Final Word: Outsmarting Yourself The market isn’t your enemy (unless you view BlackRock, Ken Griffin, the hedge fund bros, and other retail traders as enemies). Anchors, overconfidence, herds, recency — these are real chart criminals draining accounts in broad daylight. Smart traders don’t try to eliminate biases. They build guardrails to minimize the damage. Because at the end of the day, you can’t reprogram human psychology. But you can protect your portfolio from it. 👉 Off to you : Are you tempted to “average down because it’s due” or “let it ride because I’m on fire?” Share your thoughts in the comment section!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
US500: Bulls Pause as Pullback Risks GrowUS500 has been riding an impressive uptrend, with buyers pushing the index to fresh highs above 6,440, but the recent stalling near resistance suggests that momentum may be losing steam. With growth concerns, central bank caution, and a round of key economic data on deck, the risk of a corrective pullback is building. This setup highlights the importance of watching whether support levels hold or if sellers gain the upper hand. Current Bias Bearish (Short Term) – While the broader trend remains bullish, near-term technicals and macro uncertainty point toward a corrective pullback. Key Fundamental Drivers US Earnings Season: Mixed corporate earnings, with strength in tech offset by weakness in cyclicals. Fed Policy: Markets are still weighing timing of potential rate cuts, but sticky inflation data and cautious Fed commentary keep rates elevated. Bond Yields: US yields remain relatively high, pressuring equities when safe-haven flows emerge. Macro Context Interest Rates: The Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, balancing sticky services inflation against slowing growth. Rate cuts are still priced for later this year, but not aggressively. Economic Growth: US economy shows signs of slowing, with softer retail sales and housing data, though labor markets remain resilient. Commodities/Flows: Energy costs are stabilizing, but higher oil prices in recent weeks could add inflationary pressure. Geopolitics: Trade tensions, tariffs, and Middle East instability add layers of risk, supporting defensive positioning. Primary Risk to the Trend A surprise dovish shift from the Fed or stronger-than-expected US earnings could quickly reignite bullish momentum and push US500 higher, invalidating the pullback scenario. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event FOMC Minutes & Powell Speeches – Markets will look for clarity on rate cut timing. US CPI & PPI Data – Any upside surprises could weigh heavily on equities. Leader/Lagger Dynamics The US500 is a leader, often dictating global equity sentiment. Movements in US500 ripple into NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE, and risk-sensitive FX pairs such as AUD/JPY. Its role as a global risk benchmark makes it highly influential. Key Levels Support Levels: 6,370, 6,231, 5,920 Resistance Levels: 6,447 (recent high), 6,500 psychological barrier Stop Loss (SL): 6,480 (above recent highs) Take Profit (TP): TP1: 6,370 TP2: 6,231 TP3: 5,920 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints US500 bias is shifting to neutral-to-bearish, with the index showing signs of fatigue at highs around 6,440–6,450. A pullback toward 6,370 → 6,231 is possible, with 5,920 as an extended target if risk sentiment deteriorates. A protective stop at 6,480 is key in case bulls regain momentum. Traders should keep a close eye on Fed communication and US inflation data, as these remain the most powerful catalysts for near-term direction. With the US500 acting as a leader for global equities, its moves will likely shape broader market sentiment across stocks, indices, and even risk-sensitive currencies.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by ultreosforex
8
I think this bubble will popWelcome fellow traders and investors. As you might have noticed… a lot of markets are topping at this moment. I think there will be a time that this market corrects to its true value. At this moment i’m looking at a 25% dip… If might sound horrible but we we’re at this point in april. Im watching the S&P 500 for levels around $4800 and $4500. I hope you can get the conversations started with my opinion ;-) Good luck and enjoy the ride down… or up
SP:SPXShort
by BAUKON_42
9
Are Longterm Interest Rates Telling Us Something?I rarely cite financial news in my market updates. My reasoning is simple: all perspectives, bullish or bearish, are ultimately reflected in price action. That price action forms patterns, and those patterns can be analyzed to produce reasonable forecasts. After years of applying Elliott Wave theory, this approach has consistently stood the test of time. That said, I’ll break from tradition today, as I believe the following excerpt is particularly relevant to my latest Trading View update. It comes from Barbara Kollmeyer’s article, “There’s a slow-motion crisis in bonds — and this bearish strategist thinks it will hit stocks.” For context, I regularly track multiple market indices, futures contracts, single stocks, and notably, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond. For the past year, I’ve highlighted the counterintuitive rise in long-term yields that ironically began when the Fed started cutting its benchmark rate in September 2024. While brief divergences between long-term yields and Fed policy aren’t unusual, this persistent uptrend is different. The yield has been carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, appearing now on the verge of a breakout—not just toward incremental new highs, but potentially into a runaway scenario for long-term rates. This is why Albert Edwards’ recent comments caught my attention: “There is a slow-motion crisis unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril. The upward grind for long bond yields has been relentless, yet investors keep ignoring that to focus instead on more bullish metrics such as the latest reporting season driven by the mega-cap IT stocks, that promises a pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.” His perspective resonated with me. Having lived through the dot-com boom and bust, I recall how new technologies can fuel outsized market optimism. AI undoubtedly carries transformational potential, much like the Internet. But just as it took nearly two decades for the Internet to fully translate from speculative boom to tangible economic value, AI’s payoff will likely follow a similarly extended trajectory. It’s not an immediate catalyst. What I am certain of is this: the cost of long-term money is rising, with implications far beyond bond charts. Higher yields directly affect mortgage rates and other long-term financing costs. More importantly, sustained upward pressure in long-term rates has the potential to weigh heavily on equities, broader markets, and asset valuations for far longer than many currently expect.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
US500 – Has the Correction Started?1. What Happened Yesterday Yesterday, US500 dropped around 1%, signaling that a meaningful correction could be starting. Unlike Nasdaq, which already broke under two key support levels, here the price is still above the trendline that began back at the end of May, when the index broke through the important 5800 resistance. The rise since April has been huge and not fundamentally justified, making the index vulnerable to a reversal towards more sustainable levels. ________________________________________ 2. Key Question Has the correction really started, or will we first see another spike before the drop? ________________________________________ 3. Why More Downside is Likely • Trendline vulnerability: A break under 6380 could trigger acceleration to the downside. • First bear target: 6100, the old ATH. • Bigger picture: A move under 6000 remains likely, with 5800 as a longer-term destination. • Risk/reward setup: Any spike higher should be seen as a selling opportunity. Around 6500 would be ideal to short. ________________________________________ 4. Trading Plan • Sell spikes, especially near 6500). • Watch 6380 – break here could open the way towards 6100. • Medium/long term bias: Bearish, with more room down than up. ________________________________________ 5. Final Note 🚀 The market must confirm, but the strategy is clear: don’t chase the bounce, sell the strength and ride the correction. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
5
S&P REBOUND USING DATA POINTS FROM 10 YEARS BACKTHE MARKETS SHOULD REBOUND END SEPT OR EARLY OCTOBER ACCORDING TO HISTORICAL DATA. ChatGPT helped analyze this chart that I made. I went back 10 years and analyzed how long pullbacks are after a market rally. I removed some of the major outliers like Covid and 2022 rate hikes to 5.25%. Using our sample test cases that somewhat align with our current market conditions this is what ChatGPT helped me with...... Here’s what your boxes say, numerically (ignoring the crisis outliers): Durations you marked: 31d, 57d, 61d, 63d, 91d, 91d → avg ~66 days, median ~62 days (about 2 months). Drawdowns you marked: ~6.0%, 9.9%, 10.1%, 11.4%, 15.9%, 17.7%, 18.3% → median ~11.4%, mean ~12.8%. Most of the time, the “routine” pullback sits ~8–12%; the 15–18% drops do happen, but usually finish quickly (2 monthly bars). What that implies for this pullback Using the current level shown on your chart (~6,349): Typical reset (most common): –8% to –12% → ~5,84k–5,59k. That corridor overlaps your MA-ribbon cluster (~5,77k → 5,57k → 5,48k → 5,39k → 5,30k), which is where past pullbacks often end in bull trends. Deeper but still “normal”: –15% to –18% → ~5,40k–5,21k, i.e., probing the lower ribbon (~5.39k–5.30k) without breaking the longer-term uptrend. Time expectation: Your history points to ~2 months on average (range 1–3 months). If this pullback is already one monthly bar in, the base-case is another 1–2 bars of chop/weakness before the trend attempts higher—unless buyers reclaim highs sooner. Signals to watch on your chart Monthly closes vs. the ribbon Healthy: wicks into 5.7k–5.6k that close back above the upper/mid ribbon. Caution: Two monthly closes < ~5.30k (lower ribbon) plus a flattening ribbon. RSI(14) monthly (yours is ~70 and curling): a normal reset is 55–60 while price holds the ribbon. Sustained <50 shifts risk to a longer correction. MACD monthly: a gentle histogram fade with price respecting the ribbon = routine pullback. A bearish cross with closes below the lower ribbon flags the 15–18% scenario or worse. Quick map (actionable zones) Shallow buy-the-dip: 5,75x–5,65x Deeper, still-bull: 5,45x–5,32x Trend-change risk: persistent closes <~5,30x Bottom line: with the crisis moves removed, your own data argues the current pullback most likely lasts ~2 months total and bottoms ~8–12% off highs, near the upper/mid MA ribbon. Only if monthly candles start living below ~5.30k (and RSI/MACD roll hard) do the 15–18%/multi-month outcomes become the base case.
SP:SPX
by Grit4trades
5
S&P500 Can the 4H MA50 save the day again?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a short-term pull-back following the new All Time High (ATH) on August 15 of the 3-month Channel Up. It is just above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the most common level of Support throughout this pattern, before the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which formed its last Higher Low. As a result, as long as it holds, it is more likely to see a continuation of the Bullish Leg that started on the 4H MA200 bounce (August 01). The previous Bullish Leg peaked on a +8.80% rise, so that gives us a medium-term Target of 6750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
US500 at All-Time High – Pullback or Breakout Ahead?The US500 has reached the All-Time High (ATH) zone after a strong bullish leg. We are now at a key decision point: will the price correct lower to gather strength, or break out and extend the rally? 📊 Scenario 1 – Pullback before breakout Possible rejection at the ATH with a correction toward the 6440–6460 support/resistance zone. If buyers defend this area, it could provide a solid long entry opportunity. 📊 Scenario 2 – Direct breakout A clean breakout above 6480–6500 with strong volume could trigger another bullish wave. Waiting for confirmation is crucial to avoid a false breakout. ⚖️ Conclusion The broader trend remains bullish (H4 uptrend line intact). The most likely path is a continued move higher, potentially after a short pullback to relieve buying pressure. 👉 This is an educational analysis only, not financial advice.
TICKMILL:US500Short
by lucasmbernardo00
1
Is this the secret to the stock market? the holy grail?can someone with more experience and skills with analysis confirm what I'm seeing? It basically looks like I stumbled upon the secret of how the stock market works. it can't be this easy, can it? If this holds true we know with a high degree of accuracy when a correction / crash will happen and when a recovery will happen. My specialty is pattern analysis and channels, but there is no way that deciphering the stock market is this easy. it basically says in a few days we are going to have a correction/ crash, even though we just had one. Maybe the tariff crash was premature and the market was trying to set itself up for a crash according to it's original timeline? if this holds true it means the entire market is operating on a schedule/ cycle
SP:SPX
by eksine
2
S&P 500 Eyes Breakout as Powell Signals Rate CutThe S&P 500 is once again approaching record territory, with momentum accelerating after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a potential rate cut at Jackson Hole. Markets welcomed the dovish shift, boosting risk appetite and driving stocks higher. Beyond Powell’s comments, several other factors are fueling the rally. Softer inflation readings have reinforced the case for easier policy, while labor market data shows a cooling trend without triggering recession fears. This “goldilocks” scenario continues to support equities. Strong corporate earnings have also underpinned the move, particularly from the tech and consumer sectors, where margins remain resilient despite macro uncertainty. Capital inflows into equity ETFs highlight renewed investor confidence, while declining bond yields are making stocks relatively more attractive. On the technical side, the S&P 500 is pushing toward the 6,500 level, its all-time high. A clean break above this barrier would confirm fresh upside momentum, potentially triggering further buying from trend-following funds. While risks remain from geopolitics and trade tensions, the current mix of easing Fed expectations, solid earnings, and supportive technicals suggests the index could extend higher. A breakout above 6,500 may set the stage for another leg in the bull market.
SP:SPXLong
by fwalbaum
3
PX500 | Fed in Focus as Geopolitics Drive VolatilitySPX500 Overview Geopolitics dominates before the Fed takes the stage. Putin’s stance appears to be that Ukraine should give up not only the territory Russia has taken, but also areas it has failed to capture after more than three years of fighting. This has been repeatedly rejected by Zelenskiy and European leaders, who will stand alongside him in Washington when he meets Trump later today. Technical Outlook: The price is expected to test 6425. A 1H close below this level would extend the bearish move toward 6389 and 6366. To resume the bullish trend, the price must close a 4H candle above 6468, opening the way to higher resistance levels. Support: 6425, 6389, 6366 Resistance: 6468, 6488, 6528
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
SPX500 Market Outlook | Fed Meeting & Retail Earnings in FocusSPX500 Overview Wall Street subdued as retail earnings and Fed meeting remain in focus U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Wednesday, extending a tech-led pullback on Wall Street. Investors are closely monitoring earnings from major retailers such as Target and Lowe’s, seen as key indicators of consumer health, while awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium later this week. Concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices have weighed on sentiment, adding to the cautious market tone. 🔎 Technical Outlook The SPX500 remains under bearish pressure after stabilizing below the pivot line at 6425. Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below 6425, the trend favors the downside, targeting 6389 and 6366. A confirmed break of 6366 could accelerate the decline toward 6321. Bullish Scenario: A sustained 4H candle close above 6425 would shift momentum back to the upside, with resistance at 6439, followed by 6468 and 6485. Support: 6389, 6366, 6341, 6321 Resistance: 6439, 6468, 6485
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
Trendline Break To The Downside In SPX/USDHey Traders and followers! Hope your summer has been going great along with your profits $ Take your money off the table in SPX if you are long and jump into a short as we have a trendline break to the downside on the 12hr chart. Price has broke through the sell zone area of 6436.6 painting a bearish picture for SPX way down to 5980.6 area. If price breaks back up above 6436.6 area then the bearish break trade will be off the table. Best of luck in all your trades $$$
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trade-Farmer
1
SPX Weak Bearish Bias → 6440P Caution Trade # 🏦 SPX Weekly Options Analysis – 8/18 📉 **Market Context** * Mixed signals across metrics → weak bearish bias * Price below VWAP → potential short-term downside * Volume insufficient → low conviction * Call/Put ratio neutral → no strong directional bias --- ## 🎯 Trade Setup (Cautious Put) * **Instrument**: SPX * **Direction**: PUT (SHORT) * **Strike**: 6440 * **Expiry**: 2025-08-18 * **Entry Price**: \$0.60 * **Profit Target**: \$1.20 * **Stop Loss**: \$0.30 * **Size**: 1 contract * **Confidence**: 60% * **Entry Timing**: Market Close --- ## 📈 Breakeven @ Expiry 👉 6439.40 (Strike – Premium) SPX must **close < 6439.40 by market close** to profit at expiry. --- ## 🧠 Key Risks * Mixed signals → potential whipsaw ⚡ * Market structure unclear → downside not guaranteed * Theta decay risk → short-term option, fast time decay --- # ⚡ SPX 6440P SHORT PLAY ⚡ 🎯 In: \$0.60 → Out: \$1.20 🛑 Stop: \$0.30 📅 Exp: 8/18 📈 Bias: Weak Bearish, trade cautiously 🐻 --- 📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON** ```json { "instrument": "SPX", "direction": "put", "strike": 6440.0, "expiry": "2025-08-18", "confidence": 0.60, "profit_target": 1.20, "stop_loss": 0.30, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.60, "entry_timing": "close", "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-18 15:02:25 UTC-04:00" }
SP:SPXShort
by quantsignals
1
SPX: absorbed tariffsThe US equity markets continue to be supported by positive market sentiment. The closely watched macro data during the previous week was July inflation, which was 0,2% for the month and fully in line with market estimates. It seems that for the moment, the US economy is ready to absorb the burden of increased trade tariffs and keep inflation within lower levels without too much oscillation. Such development is increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. Although the index closed the week lower, still, during the week, the S&P 500 reached another all time highest level at 6.475 on Wednesday. The index closed the week at 6.449 on Friday. Analysts are noting that this correction occurred due to weaker consumer sentiment as posted by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, inflation expectations for this year and for the period of next five years have modestly increased. Considering a new ATH, some profit taking might occur during the week ahead, which could impact modest correction in index. However, considering continuous relatively stable inflation and strong demand posted during July, despite trade tariffs, analysts are noting that the market optimism will continue. For the week ahead, it should be also considered that a yearly Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held 21-23 August, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to hold a speech. This event is both well covered by the media and closely watched by investors, looking for an indication of a potential future move on a monetary policy side.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX