U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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Stop Loss (SL) 156.35
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 155.00
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 154.35
The "Double Top" Rejection: Price failed to break above the 156.205 black horizontal line. A move below the intermediate support at 155.50 would confirm a shift in intraday structure toward the downside.
Momentum Shift: RSI is trending toward 50 and the MACD histogram is widening negatively, indicating that the recent bounce is losing steam.
1️⃣31-July-2024 from 0.10%-0.25% and price dropped from 152.78 to 141.80 in 2 days (1000+ pips)
2️⃣24-Jan-2025 from 0.25%-0.50% and price dropped from 156.79 to 151.27 in 2 weeks (500+ pips)
3️⃣Now 19-Dec-2025 from 0.50%-0.75% and price is 155.70. If history repeats, it must touch 150.40 (if daily 50 Pips maybe till the end of this month)
Note: This is educationally purposeful knowledge, not trading signal since global events are far more variable than history.
Target: 154.40–154.70
SL: Above 156.00


I keep seeing traders acting as market makers ...

Entry Zones
155.50 - 156.00 (targeting bearish OB/FVG fill)
Target Zones
154.00
153.00
Invalidation Condition
A sustained break and close above 156.50 would invalidate the immediate bearish bias, suggesting a deeper retracement or a potential shift back to a bullish market structure.
Detailed Reasoning
The USD/JPY 1-hour chart exhibits a clear bearish market structure following the significant high around 158.00 in late November. Price has broken structure to the downside and formed lower lows, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment. The current upward retracement is entering a premium zone of the bearish leg, coinciding with a potential bearish order block and a filled Fair Value Gap (FVG) around the 155.50-156.00 area. This zone represents a high-probability area for smart money to re-engage short positions, pushing price lower to target existing sell-side liquidity.
Expected Next Move
Expect price to find strong resistance in the 155.50-156.00 zone, leading to a continuation of the bearish trend towards the 154.00 support level, and potentially extending to 153.00.