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USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop OffUSOIL is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resitance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 60.77, whichis a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 62.09, which is a swing high resistance that lines up with he 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 58.74, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayEconomic stimulus expectations: Lowering interest rates can reduce the financing costs for enterprises and individuals, thereby promoting investment and consumption, indirectly boosting industrial production and transportation demand, and subsequently increasing the consumption of crude oil. Historical data shows that during the period of interest rate cuts, the global growth rate of crude oil demand has averaged an increase of 0.3-0.5 million barrels per day. Inflation expectation transmission: Interest rate cuts may trigger expectations of inflation recovery in the market. Crude oil, as an inflation-hedging asset, its financial attributes will attract funds to flow into the futures market, further pushing up prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% WTICUSD: Post-Sanctions 5% Rebound Hints at 20% Upside Amid Supply Constraints – SWOT, Price Action, and Intrinsic Value Insights 📊 Introduction As of October 30, 2025, WTICUSD (WTI Crude Oil) is showing signs of a tentative rebound after recent volatility, rising 5% over the past week to trade around $60 per barrel on increased volume following U.S. sanctions on Russian firms like Rosneft and Lukoil. This price action reflects a partial recovery from October lows near $57, amid viral social media discussions on supply disruptions (#OilSanctions trending with 600K+ mentions). Applying timeless investing principles to identify profitable setups, this highlights potential mispricings in the energy sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as subdued global demand growth at 700 kb/d and Fed rate stability, while sector dynamics underscore WTI's role in U.S. production highs of 13.5 mb/d, though offset by OPEC+ cuts and oversupply fears. 🔍 SWOT Analysis **Strengths 💪**: WTI's proximity to major U.S. shale basins enables efficient production with AISC around $45-50 per barrel per EIA data, supporting a resilient supply chain that has driven recent rebounds from $57 lows. High liquidity in futures markets (average daily volume 1M contracts) ties into strategies for capitalizing on quick asymmetry plays in volatile commodities. **Weaknesses ⚠️**: Sensitivity to global demand slowdowns, with U.S. inventories up 5% YoY, has led to 10-15% price corrections amid forecast revisions, emphasizing the need for safety in cyclical assets. **Opportunities 🌟**: Sanctions disrupting ~1 mb/d Russian exports and green energy transitions boosting industrial use position for 15-20% price surges on shortage signals, with metrics like forward P/Supply ratios offering re-rating potential to generate returns through market tightening. **Threats 🚩**: OPEC's third demand cut for 2025 (to ~700 kb/d growth) and rising non-OPEC production could trigger further 10-15% pullbacks, as seen in recent dips post-forecasts, but proven principles aid in navigating for profitable outcomes. 💰 Intrinsic Value Calculation Employing a value investing approach for commodities, we estimate WTI's intrinsic value using a weighted production cost and supply-demand premium model, incorporating a margin of safety as emphasized in classic methodologies to ensure actionable, money-making insights. Key inputs from EIA and IEA data: AISC ~$48 per barrel, global surplus forecast ~0.5 mb/d (reversed to deficit under sanctions), assumed growth rate 10% (based on industrial demand CAGR). Formula: Intrinsic Value per Barrel = (AISC * Weight) + (Surplus/Deficit Adjustment * Growth Multiplier) - AISC weighted at 0.6 for base costs - Adjustment: -0.05 (mild surplus; negative for downward pressure), Multiplier: 15 (classic: 5 + 2*5, scaled for energy volatility) Calculation: (48 * 0.6) + (-0.05 * 15) = 28.8 - 0.75 = 28.05 Scaled to market comparables (e.g., historical Brent premium ~$5, adjusted for U.S. focus): Refined = 28.05 * 2.5 ≈ $70.13 Apply 20% margin of safety: $70.13 * 0.8 ≈ $56.10 At current ~$60 (post-rebound), WTICUSD appears fairly valued but undervalued by 15-20% to $70 on sanction-driven deficits—no debt flags, sustainability hinges on demand growth above 700 kb/d. 📈 Undervalued. 🚀 Entry Strategy Insights Rooted in time-tested disciplines for compounding wealth, seek support zones at $57-58 (near recent lows and 200-day SMA) for unleveraged, long-term positions via dollar-cost averaging, entering on breakouts above $62 after 5-10% corrections from news events. Tie non-repainting signals to viral sanctions updates for profitable timing amid volatility. ⚠️ Risk Management Size positions at 1-5% to preserve capital against energy swings, diversifying with renewables or bonds. Caution on 15-20% volatility from OPEC news; trailing stops 10% below entry (e.g., $54) ensure holds only on strong fundamentals, promoting sustainable profitability. 🔚 Conclusion WTI's rebound on sanctions buzz, supply dynamics, and undervalued profile offer principle-driven paths to 20%+ gains via mispricings and safety. Key takeaways: Track deficit forecasts for upside, verify EIA data independently. Share your thoughts in comments – does this sanctions news shift your view? #ValueInvesting #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #WTICUSD #CommodityTrading This is educational content only; not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by DCAChampion
USOILCrude oil is currently trading around the $60.00 level, consolidating after a recent bearish phase. Price has respected the support zone near $59.50–59.80, forming a potential accumulation base. A descending trendline is acting as dynamic resistance, while the 50-period moving average is flattening—indicating that bearish momentum is losing strength. The projection suggests a possible breakout above the trendline, followed by a retest of the breakout zone before a potential rally toward the $62.00–62.50 area. As long as the price holds above the support zone, the bullish scenario remains valid. A breakdown below $59.50 would invalidate this setup.
TVC:USOIL
by Trader1mran
"Policy + Spot" dual support, short-term recovery potentialThe expectation of Fed rate cut strengthens the financial attributes The current market probability of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in October is 88%. The implementation of the rate cut will lower the US dollar index (currently at 93.5, if the rate cut occurs, it may drop to 92.5), and the cost of non-US currencies for purchasing crude oil decreases - the Brent crude oil price denominated in euros may decrease by 3%-4%, stimulating non-US demand countries such as India and China to replenish stocks, and short-term pushing up oil prices. Spot supply and demand are marginally tight The Dubai crude oil premium in the Middle East spot market remains at 1.8 US dollars per barrel (higher than 0.6 US dollars a month ago), and the crude oil purchase volume of Chinese refineries in October increased by 28% (for replenishment demand), and the execution rate of OPEC+ for an increase of 13.7 thousand barrels per day in November was only 58% (Saudi Arabia and Russia did not fully increase production), the spot market supports the 60 US dollar price level. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
1
Crude oil may bounce higherThe today's potential idea is a technical long for Crude oil. The absense of selling activity and the position of the price at the bottom of the correction to the upswing corresponds to the 20-day moving average: the short-term support zone, which may boost the development of the upward day. The yesterday's J Powell's speech was not as dovish as traders expected, but market seem to care much despite rising 30-year bond yields. Volatility remains low, so we can expect a technical action from most asset classes. That's not a signal, that's just the idea. Always consider your own reseach and manage your risk at all times!
TVC:USOILLong
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
USOIL H4 | Bearish Reversal from Pullback ResistanceUSOIL has rejected the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracemnt and could drop from this level to the downside. Sell entry is at 60.77, whichis a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 62.09, which is a swing high resistance. Take profit is at 58.74, which is a pullback support that lines up witht he 61.8% FIbonacci retracement. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
TRADU:USOILShort
by Tradu
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths. As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels. ⚠️ Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way. ✅ Recommendation for Use: To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
CFI:WTI
by Deltafx_Broker
WTI bounce in the making?WTI crude has now delivered two failed breaks beneath $60 support, the latter delivering a doji candle on the daily timeframe, producing the second part of a potential three-candle morning star pattern. With risk sentiment perking up again as traders anticipate a likely deal between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to reset trade relations between the U.S. and China, you could argue from a fundamental perspective that it may support crude prices in the near term. That outcome would likely see the bullish reversal pattern completed. Traders could position for such an outcome by initiating longs above $60, with a stop beneath the lows of the prior session to protect against a resumption of the prior bearish trend. The obvious target would be the 50-day moving average, where the price was capped late last week. The message from momentum indicators is a neutral one, with RSI (14) flatlining near 50 while MACD has crossed the signal line from below and is now pushing back towards positive territory. The signal favours putting more emphasis on price action in the near term. Good luck! DS
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREX.com
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today1.The dual benefits of the interest rate cut: On October 30, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has placed the probability at 85.5%. The US dollar index is likely to weaken along with the easing policy, and the decline in the purchase cost of non-US currencies will stimulate demand expectations. At the same time, in the context of preventive interest rate cuts, economic demand resilience still exists, avoiding the suppression of recessionary interest rate cuts on oil prices. The short-term financial attribute-driven trend is clear. 2.Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ negotiations to stabilize: The attack by Ukraine on Russian refineries has led to a decline in Russia's oil product exports. While OPEC+ maintained a moderate increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, and Saudi Arabia and Russia had differences in the expansion pace, the actual increase in production fulfillment rate was less than 60%. The supply-side pressure has not been significantly released, providing a bottom support for oil prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Potential bullish bounce off?USO/USD is reacting off the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to the take profit. Entry: 60.51 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 58.82 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 62.83 Why we like it: There is a multi-swing high resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by Vantage
WTI OIL 1D MA50 rejection. Sell Signal.Last time (October 14, see chart below) we took a look on WTI Oil (USOIL), we gave a Buy Signal right at the bottom of its 3-month Channel Down, which eventually hit our 62.00 Target: This time we have a Sell Signal as the price and the Channel's Bullish Leg got rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). When that happened in September, the market started to decline and reached its lower Support. As a result, we expect Oil to turn bearish here, targeting $56.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
1
WTI oversold bounce back capped at 6160The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 6160, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 6160 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5946, followed by 5845 and 5780 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6160 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6215, then 6300. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6160. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by Trade Nation
USOIL WEEKLY🧩 1. Chart Overview • Instrument: WTI Crude Oil (TVC: USOIL) • Timeframe: Weekly (W1) • Current Price: Around $60.34 • Main Idea: Price is completing a large correction and preparing for a major long-term uptrend. ⸻ ⚙ 2. Elliott Wave Structure Breakdown 🔹 Wave Count • The major Wave (A) peaked near $130–$140 (the 2022 top). • Since then, oil has been moving in a complex correction labeled as (W)-(X)-(Y) — a typical double zigzag structure. • You’ve marked the last part as Wave (2) nearing completion — meaning the next leg is expected to be Wave (3) to the upside (a powerful impulsive rally). ⸻ 🧠 3. Wyckoff Accumulation Phase The right side of the chart shows a Wyckoff-style pattern, indicating accumulation after a large markdown. Key Wyckoff Labels: • AR (Automatic Rally): The first strong bounce after the selloff, forming the upper boundary of the trading range. • ST (Secondary Test): Retest of the lower support area. • Spring: Final shakeout below support — trapping late sellers. • Test / (2): The end of the correction, confirming accumulation is complete. ✅ Once the spring is confirmed, a strong markup phase (uptrend) usually begins — aligning perfectly with Elliott Wave (3). ⸻ 🧭 4. BOS & CHoCH (Smart Money Concepts) These two terms on the left side represent structure shifts: • BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates the end of a bearish phase and start of a new bullish leg. • CHoCH (Change of Character): Early signal of trend reversal — used by institutional traders to identify accumulation/distribution shifts. So the previous bullish leg (2020–2022) already showed BOS and CHoCH, meaning the market structure turned bullish. Now, we are in the re-accumulation stage before the next big push. 📈 6. Expected Path (Your Projection) 1. Current Phase: Completing the last leg of correction (Wave (2)) — forming a Wyckoff spring. 2. Next: Bounce and consolidation above $70–80 to confirm accumulation. 3. Then: Major breakout — Wave (3) — targeting $110–$140, possibly over several months into 2026–2027. Simple Interpretation WTI Crude Oil is finishing its large corrective phase near $60. The structure shows a Wyckoff spring + Wave (2) bottom, meaning big accumulation is happening. Once price breaks above $80, a strong multi-year uptrend could begin, aiming for $120–$140.
TVC:USOILLong
by Fin_free_figt
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayFunds continue to accumulate: Although the non-commercial net short position of the CFTC remains negative, it has decreased by 80,000 lots in the past two days. Hedge funds have increased their long positions by 120,000 lots in the range of $59 - $60. The trend of fund rebalancing continues, and there is no withdrawal signal. Refinery replenishment to stabilize: The 3-2-1 cracking spread in the United States remains at $23 per barrel. The processing profit of refineries has not significantly declined, and the operating rate has stabilized at 88%. Corresponding to the daily purchase volume of crude oil, it has increased by 300,000 barrels compared to the beginning of October, and the demand for active replenishment of inventories supports the price. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
1
USOIL Crudeoil bullish forecast down trend breakdout🚨 USOIL (Crude Oil) Technical Update 🚨 🕒 Timeframe: 1H 📉 After a clear downtrend breakout, price has shown a strong bullish consolidation breakout from the key support zone at $60.700. 🔥 Momentum is shifting bullish, signaling potential continuation to the upside. 🎯 Technical Targets: $61.300 — Initial resistance / short-term target $62.000 — Mid-term bullish objective $62.800 — Extended target / next major resistance 📊 Outlook: As long as price holds above $60.700, buyers remain in control. Watch for sustained volume and candle confirmation for further continuation. #USOIL #CrudeOil #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #Trading #Breakout #BullishMomentum 💪📈
FX:USOILLong
by ExpertTraderASK
2
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe policy replenishment window has opened, and official buying has formed a bottoming force. On October 27, the US Department of Energy clearly announced that it plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), with the delivery period set from December to January next year, and the purchase price locked in at around $60. Although the single purchase volume is limited, this is the first clear official replenishment action since the oil price dropped, sending a strong signal that "60 dollars is the policy bottom". At the same time, although OPEC+ has entered a production increase cycle, it only plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and there are differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the extent of production increase. The actual implementation rate may be lower than expected and is unlikely to form a substantive supply shock. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1