How to Use VWAP in Confluence with StructureVWAP is one of the few indicators that consistently adds value when used correctly. It does not predict direction and it does not replace market structure, but it provides a powerful reference point for where fair value sits within the current session or trend.
When combined with structural analysis, VWAP helps you filter trades, improve timing, and avoid impulsive entries that fight the underlying flow.
The first step is understanding what VWAP represents. It shows the average price weighted by volume, reflecting where most transactions have occurred. When price trades above VWAP, it signals that buyers are in control of the session.
When price trades below it, sellers dominate. This context becomes meaningful only when it aligns with the higher timeframe structure.
Start by establishing your bias through market structure.
If the higher timeframe is in an uptrend and price trades within a discount zone, VWAP becomes a dynamic confirmation tool. A reclaim of VWAP after a liquidity sweep or after a break of structure is one of the cleanest signals that buyers are stepping back in.
The same applies in reverse for downtrends: a VWAP rejection after a pullback into premium strengthens the short bias.
VWAP also adds clarity during intraday consolidation. Ranges often form around VWAP because it reflects the session’s equilibrium. Breakouts that occur away from VWAP without pullbacks frequently lack durability.
However, a breakout followed by a retest of VWAP shows acceptance and builds confidence in continuation. This combination turns a common indicator into a reliable filter rather than a standalone signal.
Another effective use of VWAP is identifying exhaustion. When price aggressively pushes far above or below VWAP, it often signals that the move is extended. This does not mean you fade the trend, but it does mean you tighten expectations and wait for structure to align before entering. Once price reconnects with VWAP and shows intent, the next move becomes more sustainable.
VWAP becomes particularly powerful when paired with session logic. Trading above VWAP in a bullish higher timeframe environment during London or New York sessions often leads to cleaner impulses.
Trading against VWAP during low-volume hours produces far more false signals. Timing, structure, and VWAP together create a cohesive framework.
Used in confluence, not in isolation, VWAP supports disciplined decision-making.
It aligns entries with momentum, filters low-quality setups, and clarifies whether the market accepts or rejects a level. When you combine VWAP with structure, liquidity, and session context, your trades become more intentional, less emotional, and significantly more consistent.
Market insights
Bitcoin’s Next Move Starts Here Key Levels MappedBTC is currently in a technically critical phase. Price is trading below a major dynamic trendline resistance after a confirmed bearish break, keeping the broader structure corrective rather than impulsive. Momentum remains capped unless bulls reclaim key dynamic levels.
The plan from here is straightforward and scenario-based:
A. If price retraces into the Immediate Dynamic Trendline (IDT) and gets rejected again, that rejection becomes a high-probability short trigger. In that case, downside continuation toward the Demand Pool Zone (DPZ) is expected to complete leg 5 of the corrective wave. This zone is where I would anticipate strong accumulation and a relief rally, targeting a move back into the Supply Pool Zone (SPZ).
B. Alternatively, if BTC breaks and holds above the IDT, momentum should accelerate to the upside, with the Supply Pool Zone remaining the primary upside target, exactly as mapped on the chart.
What happens at the Supply Pool is decisive. If bulls fail to hold price and we see a strong rejection, that would confirm distribution and could trigger a complete bearish expansion, opening the door to much deeper targets, potentially toward the $50k region.
Market is at a decision point.
Are you bullish or bearish from here?
Let’s discuss your view
BTCUSD Holds Triangle Support - Bounce Toward 88,500 ExpectedHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTC/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a downward channel, Bitcoin found a base near the lower boundary and reversed sharply, signaling seller exhaustion and a shift in momentum. This reversal was followed by a breakout above the descending resistance, confirming the end of the bearish phase. Price then entered a consolidation range, where accumulation took place before a confirmed breakout pushed BTC higher. Following the range breakout, the market formed a triangle structure, with price respecting the Triangle Support Line while facing pressure from the Triangle Resistance Line. Recently, BTC revisited the Buyer Zone around 86,300–85,500, which aligns with both horizontal support and the lower triangle boundary. Buyers stepped in at this level, defending the structure and keeping the recovery scenario intact. Currently, BTC is attempting a rebound from the Buyer Zone and is aiming toward the 88,500 Resistance Level (TP1). As long as price holds above the support zone, a move toward this resistance remains likely. A clean breakout above 88,500 would confirm further upside continuation, while rejection could lead to another consolidation or retest of support. For now, the structure favors buyers, with 86,300–85,500 as key support and 88,500 as the main upside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
| This Chart Shows How We Look at BTC Halving & Market Cycles | This chart shows how we look at BTC halvings and market cycles. Every cycle follows a similar structure — accumulation, expansion, distribution, reaccumulation — but the way it plays out is never the same. That’s the key part most people miss.
Yes, around 539 days have already passed since the last halving, but so far what we’ve really seen is BTC printing a new ATH. And that alone does not define the start of a bull market. BTC making an ATH has happened before without a proper broad market expansion right away.
For us, the real confirmation comes from ETH. Once ETH prints a new ATH — or at least starts hovering close to it — that’s when we can say the bull market has actually started. Only then do we expect the kind of expansion most people are waiting for, especially on alts. Until that happens, everything before it is just positioning and volatility.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: every bull run is different. This one is no exception. Too many people were waiting for the bull run to “just work” the same way it always did. When expectations become that obvious, markets rarely deliver in a clean way.
The most logical outcomes in that case are either delaying the bull run or aggressively taking liquidity — exactly like the recent dip that wiped out a lot of positions and shook people out. Bigger players need fuel, and that fuel comes from impatience.
So no, this doesn’t mean the bull run is cancelled. It means it’s evolving differently. BTC did its part by making a new ATH. Now the market is waiting on ETH. Once that happens, the smaller bull run most people are hoping for can finally kick off.
Until then, patience, positioning, and understanding the cycle matters more than hype.
BITCOIN 'From Denial of the Bear Cycle to Bitcoin going to 0'We've been showing you since September why Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was structured to start a new Bear Cycle in October, mostly based on the very accurate 4-year Cycle Theory. Recently we've published analyses of the last indicators that practically confirmed that the market has already entered this Bear Cycle.
Today, with a combination of the Pi Cycle bands and the Aroon Oscillator, we basically display the investor mentality as the market transitions from Bull to Bear and again back to Bull.
First of all, even the 3W time-frame has confirmed that by breaking a closing a 3W candle below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC confirmed in late October the start of the Bear Cycle. As you can see that happened before on December 27 2021, May 07 2018 and August 04 2014. Every time that happened, the Bear Cycle was a fact.
We are now within the 1W MA50 - Pi Cycle (green) Support trend-line Zone, which is part of the 'Denial of Bear Cycle' Phase, where the majority of the market doesn't/ can't accept the trend change. Below the Pi Cycle Support starts the 'Bitcoin going to 0' hysteria where the majority of the market starts turning from bullish to bearish, having accepted the Bear Cycle, making extravagant calls on Bitcoin's potential bottom.
This is when the very reliable Aroon Oscillator turns bearish below 0.00. Once this hits its Buy Zone, it has historically been a fair time to start buying again for the long-term. That is when bearishness across the market is at its peak and of course when smart money start buying massively again.
So do you think that's a good framework to follow? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
The Language of Price | Lesson 1 – Candlestick TheoryLesson Focus: Candlestick Types (Theory)
This post introduces the basic concept of candlesticks and how price behavior is visually represented on a chart.
Candlesticks are one of the most fundamental tools in market structure analysis, as they reflect price movement, momentum, and market participation over time.
📘 WHAT IS A CANDLESTICK?
A candlestick represents price activity during a specific time period and shows:
• opening price
• closing price
• highest price
• lowest price
Candlesticks do not predict the future.
They simply describe what has already happened in the market .
Their meaning becomes clearer only when viewed within broader market context.
🧠 CANDLESTICK TYPES SHOWN IN THIS EDUCATION
1️⃣ Shrinking Candles (Uptrend & Downtrend)
Shrinking candle bodies indicate loss of momentum .
Price may continue in the same direction, but with reduced strength and participation.
2️⃣ Change Color Candle (Uptrend & Downtrend)
A color change against the prevailing trend may indicate weakening momentum or a temporary pause .
This reflects hesitation, not a confirmed reversal.
3️⃣ Long Wick Candle (Uptrend & Downtrend)
Long wicks show price rejection .
The market attempted to move further but was pushed back, revealing opposing pressure.
4️⃣ Inverse Long Wick Candle (Uptrend & Downtrend)
Inverse long wicks suggest acceptance in one direction and rejection in the other , often near key levels or during transitions.
5️⃣ Inside Candle (Uptrend & Downtrend)
An inside candle forms within the range of the previous candle .
This represents consolidation, indecision, and temporary balance.
6️⃣ Momentum Candle
• In an uptrend : a strong bearish momentum candle may indicate sellers stepping in
• In a downtrend : a strong bullish momentum candle may indicate buyers stepping in
Momentum candles reflect sudden imbalance , not guaranteed continuation.
📌 EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE
These candlestick examples are theoretical illustrations designed to improve understanding of price behavior and market structure.
This lesson focuses on recognition and understanding, not decision-making.
If you find this educational series useful and would like to continue learning about market structure and price behavior , you may follow to stay updated with future lessons.
ETHICAL & EDUCATIONAL NOTICE
This content is presented solely for educational and analytical purposes , based on historical price data.
It does not promote or encourage any specific trading method, financial instrument, gambling, leverage, margin usage, short selling, or interest-based activity .
Readers are encouraged to align any financial activity with their own ethical, legal, and religious principles .
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This material is strictly educational and informational .
It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading instructions.
The author does not provide personalized guidance.
Any decisions made based on this content are the sole responsibility of the individual.
Hey guys guess what !!! $BTC is strong !!!If we pump this we break out of a long down trend. If you look to the left we have a similar structure that broke out the same way.
Do you think we can see history repeat it self ?
Comment like and share for more charts.
(If you need me to draw something up for you comment bellow)
Elise | BTCUSD – 30M – Compression Below Major SupplyBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
After a strong impulsive rally from the HTF demand zone (~86.8K), BTC transitioned into consolidation while respecting trend support. Multiple reactions from the trendline (purple circles) confirm buyer presence. However, upside progress is slowing as price meets heavy sell-side liquidity and supply overhead, increasing the probability of either a breakout or a rejection.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
Continuation is valid only if price accepts above the major supply zone with strong candles and volume.
🎯 Target 1: 90,300
🎯 Target 2: 91,000
🎯 Target 3: 92,000
❌ Bearish Case 📉
Failure to break supply + loss of trendline support signals a pullback.
🎯 Downside Target 1: 88,000
🎯 Downside Target 2: 86,800 (HTF Demand)
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 89,200 – 90,300
Support 🟢: 88,000 – 86,800
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin: Won't Break Support, Back To 95K?Bitcoin continues to maintain the broader support around the low 80Ks. While this formation appears to be a lower high consolidation (bearish), it could also be the key inflection point for a reversal back into a bullish structure. This possibility aligns with the broader bullish trend which is still bullish AND with a Wave 5 scenario which I have talked about numerous times.
The broader trend that I am referring to is the bullish structure from the 126K high back to before the 73K breakout. This is the dominant structure, NOT the retrace from the 126K to 80K which is the short term trend. It is important to always consider the market from both sides of the argument. The bear argument in terms of wave count: since 88K has been overlapped, the current move is potentially a Wave 2 of the broadest magnitude. If this is true, Bitcoin has room to retrace back into the 60Ks (roughly 50% retrace from highs). The bull argument: 88K has not been overlapped for long, in fact price is very reluctant to stay below this level. 88K was the price I determined as the Wave 1, Wave 4 overlap of this broader 5th Wave that peaked at 126K. If price refuses to break lower (80K support) then it will be signaling that this is likely the beginning of the broader Wave 5 of 5 which can see a move beyond 126K over the coming months.
I agree Wave counts can be confusing and are only crystal clear after the fact, but that is not the point. The point is we can formulate potential scenarios that require confirmation by the market. If 80K breaks and price cannot swiftly retrace, then the bearish argument gains traction and price is likely in the Wave 2. IF 80K holds, and we are breaking back into the 90Ks, especially 95K resistance, then the bullish argument is in full swing.
Again this information is NOT to be used as a concrete forecast. The MARKET does what IT WANTS WHEN IT WANTS. We listen, adjust and manage risk. This information can be used as a general roadmap to anticipate further moves based on the confirmation the market offers. For example, if the bullish breakout scenario unfolds, it would make sense to expect more from longs. This includes things like: aggressive profit objectives (3:1 or greater), scaling into supports because they are more likely to hold, etc. Also expecting less from shorts, or not shorting at all, etc. Only you can decide how to adjust your strategy based on the context of the environment.
Also what makes this situation more compelling is the fact that the macro environment is strongly supportive. Lawmakers, the biggest banks and companies all innovating, investing, and betting huge in this space. On top of that, we have a government that is extremely Bitcoin friendly and setting us up for future rate cuts. CPI "officially" came in at 2.7%, less than expected which bolsters the argument for more rate cuts, perfect for the upcoming YESman, I meant Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Think about it. Remember, short term sentiment prices in the future based on only what it can process in the moment AND it is highly irrational. This is where short term mis pricing come from along with compelling lower risk opportunities you just have to have the confidence in your ability to recognize them.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. Let's goooooooooooooooo!
Japan just sent a warning most Bitcoin traders are missing!Hey @TradingView Community,
Japan just sent a signal most traders are overlooking
Let me explain
The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates toward 0.75%
Levels not seen in decades
On the surface, it looks insignificant but In reality, it impacts global liquidity
For years, Japan has been the cheapest source of capital. Investors borrowed yen at near-zero rates and deployed that money into risk assets like equities, real estate, and crypto.
This is the yen carry trade!
When rates rise, leverage unwinds.
Not because Bitcoin is weak but because cheap money disappears.
Higher borrowing costs lead to:
• Leveraged position closures
• Forced selling
• Increased volatility
This is not Japan targeting Bitcoin, this is liquidity tightening!
Bitcoin is still being traded as a leveraged risk asset, not held purely as a long-term store of value and that distinction explains the reaction
At We Trade Waves we don’t panic over volatility, we study where price pressure comes from, how to read the structures and how to take advantage of the next move
Assets dependent on leverage are fragile but Assets held with conviction turn volatility into opportunity
Japan’s move isn’t about 0.75%
It’s about discipline returning to markets and every cycle reminds us of the same truth:
Easy money inflates moves
Tight conditions reveal structure
That’s how real market understanding is built and that's how cycles and waves works
And the most important part, don't forget We Trade Waves 4 Golden rules!
1) Do not jump in
2) Do not over risk/trade
3) Do not trade without Stop Loss
4) Never ever add to a losing position!
What’s your take: short-term liquidity shock or a healthy market reset?
Trade with care,
Alain M(Coach)
WTW Team
Bitcoin Tests Resistance - Downside Risk Toward $85,700Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTC/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a clearly defined descending channel, Bitcoin attempted a recovery and managed to break out of the channel. However, this upside move lacked strong follow-through. Price entered a consolidation range, where multiple reactions and fake breakouts signaled distribution rather than accumulation. This behavior suggested that sellers were still active at higher levels. Following the range, BTC formed a triangle structure, capped by a descending Triangle Resistance Line and supported by a rising Triangle Support Line. Price has been compressing within this structure, but recent attempts to push higher were rejected near the 88,500 Resistance Level (TP1), confirming strong selling pressure at this zone. Currently, BTC is trading near the upper boundary of the triangle, where sellers continue to defend resistance. As long as price remains below the Triangle Resistance Line and fails to reclaim 88,500, the bearish scenario remains in play. My scenario: I expect a rejection from the triangle resistance, followed by a move back toward the 85,700 Support Level, which aligns with both horizontal support and the lower triangle boundary. A clean breakdown below 85,700 would confirm bearish continuation and open the door for a deeper decline. Only a strong breakout and hold above 88,500 would invalidate this short setup. For now, the market favors sellers below resistance, with 88,500 as key resistance and 85,700 as the main downside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BITCOIN Is this the 'last chance' for camp Bulls?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on its 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and as we've shown in previous posts, as long as it holds, this could initiate the first counter-trend rally of the Bear Cycle.
This 'last chance for camp Bulls' is further strengthened by the fact that the 3D RSI is displaying a similar pattern as the previous two Higher Low bottoms of the Bull Cycle in March - April 2025 and July - September 2024.
That is a Higher Lows 3D RSI Bullish Divergence against the Lower Lows of the price. This time isn't exactly Lower Lows for the price but the 1W MA100 has taken this part. Still it is almost identical to the previous ones and can kick-start a rally. Whether buyers can translate that into a final Bull Cycle rally to keep the hopes of the Cycle up, it remains to be seen. Extensive multi-angle technical analysis shows that 'hopes' should be very high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) historically assumes the role of the long-term Resistance level during Bear Cycles.
So can BTC rebound here and fuel a 'last chance for camp Bulls'? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTC OpEx Weekly OutlookI expect a volatile week for Bitcoin due to the massive OpEx on 12/26. The notional value expiring is roughly 8x the previous week.
Max pain is 96k on Deribit. Other exchanges are slightly higher.
Dealer gamma exposure is negative on Monday which should add volatility, so I expect another trip to recent support around 85k. As the week continues, gamma sharply turns positive which should have a dampening effect on price swings. As OpEx approaches, I expect price to move up at an increasing rate due to dealers unwinding hedges into Friday.
Max pain is around 96k, so it should be a magnet for price throughout the week. Hedges unwinding will apply pressure to short liquidations which could cascade with a peak in the 94-96k range.
After options expiration, price should fall sharply IF whales write more covered calls forcing MMs to hedge.
I am short into Monday. Plan to long if it dips, then open a short in the 94-96k range or whatever the top is near EOD Friday with a final target of 72k in the coming weeks/months.
Bitcoin - The 30% correction is just starting!🥊Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is just heading lower:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just a couple of weeks ago, Bitcoin perfectly retested the major all time high resistance. Since then, Bitcoin already created an expected correction of about -40%. But looking at the higher timeframe, Bitcoin can still drop another 30% from here until it retests support.
📝Levels to watch:
$60,000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
BITCOIN Ichimoku red flip taking place. NOT GOOD.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of turning its 1W Ichimoku Cloud from bullish (green) to bearish (red). It has been on a consecutive green state since October 23 2023.
This red flipping is a major development as relative to the previous BTC Bear Cycles, it has happened around the exact same stage that we are at right now. This technically confirms that we are already on the new Bear Cycle (something we've been talking about since September) and that the basic stages/ phases of it remain the same.
The high degree of symmetry is further shown by the fact that when this Ichimoku flip takes place, the price has historically been trading around 175 days (25 weeks) away from it (green circle), supported by the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). And that has always been the stage of a counter-trend rebound/ rally that targeted and was rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
The second remarkable display of symmetry is that following this Ichimoku red flip, the Bear Cycles bottomed around 105 days (15 weeks) after it (blue circles).
So what do the above data suggest for the market right now? That there is a short-term rally pending towards the 1D MA200 and that we may see the Bear Cycle bottoming around the end of September 2026.
Would you agree with this thesis? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTCUSD – Downside Pressure Remains in ControlAfter a period of strong volatility, Bitcoin is entering a phase of “catching its breath” as market sentiment shifts toward a defensive stance . Short-term capital has become more cautious, while macro factors and interest-rate expectations remain unclear, failing to trigger a fresh risk-on wave. As a result, BTC is struggling to sustain meaningful rebounds.
From a technical perspective, the outlook is tilted toward a bearish trend . Price has been repeatedly rejected at the descending trendline and is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming that sellers remain in control of the primary trend. The 88,300 zone is acting as near-term resistance, where rebounds are likely to face profit-taking and renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, 84,300 stands out as a key support level. Given the current structure, upward moves are more likely to be technical pullbacks rather than genuine reversals. If price fails to break and hold above 88,300, BTC is likely to remain under pressure and retest the 84,300 zone, or even move lower should selling momentum accelerate.
In summary, the short-term bias remains bearish. The more prudent approach is to patiently wait for pullbacks to align with the trend, rather than rushing to catch a falling knife. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, and price reaction at key resistance levels will determine the market’s next move.
BTC Corrections Don’t Kill Bull Market. They Power Them1. Primary Trend Structure
Macro trend: Clearly bullish. Price has respected a rising diagonal trendline since the 2022–2023 cycle low. Market structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming an intact uptrend.
This is a classic bull market staircase: impulsive advances (green boxes) followed by corrective consolidations (red boxes).
2. Cycle & Time Symmetry Observation
Advancing phases lasting roughly 120–225 days
Corrective phases averaging 80–120 days
Volume tends to expand during upswings and contract during consolidations
This suggests:
Healthy demand-driven rallies
Corrections are time-based rather than price-destructive
Importantly, the current corrective phase (~118 bars) is statistically aligned with prior pullbacks.
3. Current Price Action (Key Focus)
Price is pulling back toward the rising trendline. This is the first meaningful retest after a strong impulsive leg.
Historically, BTC has often reacted positively at this trendline
This zone acts as:
Dynamic support
A decision point between trend continuation vs. deeper correction
4. RSI & Momentum Context
RSI is around 45
This is neutral-to-bullish, not oversold. Momentum has cooled without breaking down
Interpretation:
No bearish divergence visible
RSI reset is consistent with bull market consolidations, not trend reversals
5. Volume Behavior
Declining volume during the pullback
Higher volume during prior upswings
This supports:
Profit-taking, not aggressive distribution
Sellers lack conviction so far
6. Key Levels to Watch
Support
Rising trendline (critical)
Prior consolidation midpoint (green box support area)
Psychological zone near previous cycle high region
Resistance
Recent local highs
Upper range of the last distribution box
Break-and-hold above prior ATH zone would signal continuation
7. Probable Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Higher Probability)
Trendline holds
Price forms a base
Next impulsive leg begins → new highs
Scenario 2: Deeper Correction (Lower Probability but Possible)
Daily close below trendline
Retest of prior green box support
On-Chain Confirmation
a) Long-Term Holder (LTH) Behavior
LTH supply remains stable to rising. No evidence of aggressive LTH distribution yet
Interpretation:
Smart money is holding, not exiting.
Exchange Balances
BTC on exchanges continues a structural decline
Indicates:
Reduced sell-side pressure
More cold storage / institutional custody
This supports the idea that pullbacks are liquidity-driven, not supply-driven.
Macro Liquidity Context (Primary Driver)
Global Liquidity (M2 & Financial Conditions)
Bitcoin’s major uptrends historically align with expanding global liquidity, not strictly rate cuts.
Even with policy rates elevated, financial conditions have eased via:
Treasury issuance absorption
Stable banking reserves
Risk-on capital rotation
Implication:
BTC can continue trending higher before rate cuts, as long as liquidity is not contracting aggressively.
ETF & Institutional Flow Impact:
Spot BTC ETFs introduced:
Persistent baseline demand
Structural bid during dips
Even during corrections:
Flows slow, but do not reverse violently
This changes historical cycle dynamics (less violent bear legs)
Risk Signals to Monitor (Invalidation Checklist)
This bullish macro/on-chain thesis weakens if:
Global liquidity contracts sharply
LTH supply begins sustained decline
Exchange inflows spike aggressively
Daily & weekly close below the rising trendline + failure to reclaim
Absent these, pullbacks remain buy-the-dip corrections.
85,354 and 35 cents: BTC Golden Genesis Fib proving VERY strongShown here is a single fib series in three different timeframes.
The "Genesis Sequence" has called all major turns since 2015.
These are "high gravity" objects that tend to capture into orbit.
This Golden fib (1.1618 exponent) has proven itself again and again.
It probably will NOT hold after so many hits but WOW, what a fighter!
Perhaps bulls will pull off a miracle, but likely we fall through it now.
$125,550.41 was the cycle top exactly at a fib.
$ 85,354.35 Golden Fib that has proven utlra-strong
$ 97,769.44 is first barrier for bounce off the Golden.
$ 77,672.47 is the first support if we lose the Golden.
.
See "Related Publications" for previous Plots such as this EXACT TOP call:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
========================================================
.
BTC/USD – H1 Analysis...BTC/USD – H1 Analysis (Based on my chart)
Market Structure
Price is forming an ascending triangle (higher lows + horizontal resistance).
Holding above the Ichimoku cloud, bullish pressure is active.
A breakout is likely after this compression phase.
📈 Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 88,800 – 89,200
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 90,500
Target 2: 92,000
❌ Invalidation
A strong H1 close below 87,800 will invalidate this bullish setup.
📌 Summary
Bias: BUY
Trend: Bullish continuation
Pattern: Ascending triangle breakout
Expectation: Price to move upward toward the marked Target Point
Head and shoulders in long term .I have identified this kind of patterns multiple times before its full formation. From a technical perspective, the 110k–113k range represents a critical resistance zone. a clean break and sustained acceptance above this area would likely open the door for an impulsive move toward the 147 k and 170k targets.
Prior to that, price must reclaim and confirm above 105k, followed by a decisive breakout of the 110k–113k region. Failure to do so keeps the current structure vulnerable and leaves this pattern valid as a potential distribution top, which could set the stage for the next bear market.
While my macro bias remains bullish, I will stay cautious until these key levels are conclusively reclaimed.






















