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Oil Prices Surge Following Armed Conflict Between Israel and Ira In the early hours of Friday, June 13, a new turning point in global geopolitics emerged and extended through the weekend: Israel launched an aerial attack using missiles and drones on Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering an immediate reaction in energy markets. The conflict has continued throughout the weekend, resulting in casualties on both sides, including significant losses within the Iranian military hierarchy. Brent crude spiked intraday by 13%, closing at $75.40—its highest jump in five years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also surged to $74, erasing its year-to-date losses. As of today, this upward movement appears to have paused temporarily. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Brent broke through the key resistance level of $74 and began the week reaching a peak of $78.46, opening the door to a potential bullish extension toward the psychological $80 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now above 70 on daily charts, starting the week at 75.33%, indicating overbought conditions—albeit justified by the sudden spike in geopolitical risk. On the weekly candles, the price has broken out of a bearish consolidation pattern that had persisted since March. A weekly close above current psychological resistance highs could confirm a trend reversal if prices break through the $82.60 resistance during the week. Today’s Asian session showed signs of a technical ceiling, with a red candle at the session open failing to surpass Friday’s highs, indicating weakness and pushing the 1-hour RSI down to around 56%. Since early May, oil has risen approximately 25%, suggesting a potentially revitalized trend. Looking at moving average crossovers, the 50-period MA has crossed above the 100-period MA, signaling the beginning of an uptrend. If this is confirmed by a cross above the 200 MA this week, prices could recover toward $96, assuming resistance levels are breached. Bearish pressure during the Asian session is largely attributed to U.S. pressure on oil prices. The point of control has remained significantly below current prices—around $72–73—forming a wide bell-shaped profile concentrated in that range, where prices have traded most frequently since late last year. Fundamental Analysis The driver behind this sharp move is clear: the market is pricing in the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows. Any disruption in this strategic chokepoint would dramatically increase logistical costs and the risk of short-term shortages. Banks like JP Morgan warn that a total closure—although unlikely—could send crude prices as high as $130 per barrel. Currently, they estimate a 7% probability of such an outcome, but even a partial escalation is enough to maintain an elevated risk premium. U.S. weekly crude inventories also fell more than expected (-3.8 million barrels), adding further upward pressure. These tensions arise just as OPEC+ had begun to ease its production cuts. Current volatility may force a strategic rethink within the cartel, with emergency meetings possible if the Middle East crisis worsens. Impact on Energy and Macroeconomic Markets The immediate surge in oil prices reflects not only fears of physical supply disruption but also a reassessment of "tail risks"—now considered more plausible—such as a partial or full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario fuels a structural geopolitical premium that could persist for weeks or even months if the escalation continues. The response among listed oil companies has been mixed. Giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron saw immediate share price increases, while more regionally exposed firms such as TotalEnergies and BP showed greater volatility. Meanwhile, crude oil shipping companies like Frontline or Euronav may benefit from longer, costlier, but potentially more profitable freight routes. Persistently high oil prices could challenge expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, potentially sparking a new inflationary wave in the energy component. This could lead to unexpectedly tighter global financial conditions, especially in energy-dependent economies. Net energy importers—such as India, Japan, or much of the eurozone—could see their trade balances worsen and currencies weaken, while exporters like Saudi Arabia, Russia, or even Venezuela could gain fiscal and political strength. Global Repercussions The conflict between Israel and Iran represents a new inflection point for the oil market. Its trajectory will be critical for commodities, capital flows, and monetary policy throughout the second half of the year. Technically, the $96 per barrel zone becomes increasingly likely if the conflict drags on. Fundamentally, a strategic realignment among multilateral organizations and producers seems imminent, possibly ushering in a new phase of higher and more volatile oil prices. The key lies in two factors: Iran’s response and the stance of the United States, which has condemned the attack but has yet to take direct military action. If Washington becomes actively involved, the impact could be far more profound—economically and geopolitically—and markets are beginning to price in that risk. The conflict also threatens to derail diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington, which had recently resumed with the goal of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The attack has frozen those talks and prompted Iran to announce severe retaliatory measures, adding another layer of uncertainty for global markets. Investors have responded by shifting clearly toward safe-haven assets such as gold, which rose more than 2% during the session, and the U.S. dollar, which regained ground against major emerging market currencies. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
BLong
by ActivTrades
Oil is Doomed: Time to SELL (Part 3/3) Surplus + Bearish Forecasts = SELL 📊 Supply Up, Demand Down = Surplus By mid-2025, the oil market will be in surplus . Even conservative estimates show +500k barrels/day in excess supply. 🔮 Analysts Expect a Crash - OPIS: “Could fall to $30–$40 if OPEC unwinds” - Kpler: “Needs to drop below $40 ” - Eurasia: “Very steep slide toward $40 ” - Citi: “Average $60 Brent in 2025” - Kavonic: “Price war could trigger Covid-level lows ” 📈 Trading Plan SELL now (~$68), target around $50 . - Return: up to 25% unleveraged - With 1:100 leverage → 2500% potential gain ⛔ Oil bulls beware: this bear has teeth.
BShort
by KenJi_Indicator_2
Long Term Brent Outlook, $32 by 2026Weekly Brent has broken a clear barrier and formed a Bull Flag pattern, but the subsequent rally has been weak, not even reaching the breakout level. The global economy is showing signs of weakening, leading to a reduction in oil demand. Concurrently, Trump's move to lift US production restrictions is boosting oil supply. However, the slight depreciation of the dollar is providing upward pressure on oil prices. Given these factors, Brent remains relatively weak, and we may see a continued decline in line with Scenario 1, potentially targeting ML by 2026. Further downside is also likely. Given the current conditions, I consider shorting oil at any reasonable price on lower timeframes.
NYMEX:BZ1!Short
by mr.dmizer
1
Brent crude: We maintain our USD 65 to USD 85 range for the yearBrent crude's current momentum has taken prices to a three-week high, with the latest move being supported by a combination of underinvested hedge funds, improved risk sentiment following a softening in the tone regarding tariffs after Trump indicated some nations could receive breaks from "reciprocal" tariffs starting next week on 2 April, and not least, the mentioned secondary tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude, which, together with Iran sanctions, may help tighten supply. Overall, we maintain our USD 65 to USD 85 range for the year, with the near-term upside potential being limited by resistance now seen in a band between USD 73.80, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the January to March selloff, and USD 74.10, a level that provided support on several occasions last month before the eventual break triggered a slump extension to near USD 68.
ICEEUR:BRN1!
by Saxo
Brent Declines Amid Rising Inventories and Peace HopesOn February 13, 2025, Brent crude fell by 0.9% to $74.50 per barrel, driven by expectations of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could ease supply disruptions caused by sanctions. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories increased for the third consecutive week by 4.1 million barrels, surpassing analysts' forecasts. These factors, combined with new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, have reinforced the bearish sentiment in the oil market.
RUS:BR1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT
OIL Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends In the oil price chart, we saw the formation of a triangle that has ended and with the price moving upwards and breaking the downtrend line and pullback to it, it has formed a 5-wave pattern, all of its sub-waves have been identified. The 4 sub-waves of this pattern have been clearly formed and wave 4 has corrected by 61.8% of the Fibonacci. Now it is the turn of the price to move towards wave 3 or C. The first target is $82 and the second target is $86. Be successful and profitable.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by M_Gheysvandi
Oil Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends On the oil chart, we are witnessing the formation of a 5-wave bullish pattern, which indicates an increase in the value of oil. This 5-wave bullish wave has completed wave 5 of 5. Between waves 2 and 4, we also witness an alternation, and wave 3 has more microwaves or, so to speak, more complexity, and this is a confirmation of our analysis. This means that the price increase has reached its end. The possibility of an increase in the price of oil is very small, unless wave 5 forms more complex microwaves (such as wave 3, which has more microwaves). Now these 5 waves can be wave 1 or A, and the corrective wave after that is wave 2 or B, which I give a higher probability of forming 5 waves. In both cases, the price of oil must correct. This correction can continue to 50% ($ 76) or the downward trend line of the previous wave, which is the 76.8% Fibonacci range ($ 73). Be successful and profitable.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Short
by M_Gheysvandi
Gldobal growth in the long term Gldobal growth in the long term Oil is a manipulated market and 70 is traceable as a fundamental level of consensus. At any rate, it's being tried to be defended and the US is probably in on it. Trump, as is obvious, was just saying what he needed to say for the voters, what he was told to say by the dudes at Palantir processing big data. Trump's intelligence appears to be zero. So what he said can safely be forgotten. And remember that there were no bans without Trump, everything that was commercially viable was mined without him. And those who are extracting, and not flapping their tongues, the price below 70 is unprofitable, that's the first assumption. I'm not insisting on anything. Now, if you look at the oil market - not so long ago there was nothing to see, but now it looks like this huge downward complex wave may be over. If I'm right, we can assume that it already has enough sub-cycles of all degrees to be considered complete. Plus, the diagonal nature of both of these triangles is precisely what is meant by trying to sort of “reach” or get closer to some level. The longer the negative trends for this market persisted, the closer - and with a narrower range - prices approached the minimum important level, then stayed there for a long time in a very narrow range, but as soon as there were reasons for a bounce, they bounced back up. 🚀 Trade with the professionals of THS - Wave Theory! 🔹 All trades are based on wave analysis. 🔹 Fixed stop loss and take profit for risk management. 🔹 100% automation: copy trades through CopyFX service. 🔹 Reliability and transparency: the results are confirmed by the market. 📈 Don't miss the chance to earn steadily! 👉 Connect to CopyFX with THS and start copying profitable trades right now! 💡 Details on our channel and in the app!
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Trade_Hive_Signals