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PayPal 79% down from ATH!! Under massive discount??I do not do manual analysis on anything. Instead, I develop methods to do the analysis. This way, we can be free from bias, and we measure things objectively. Having said that, purely statistics based analysis does not take into consideration recent news events and other economical or political impacts on the company. I developed this method to measure the discounted price probability of stocks based on its historical values of fundamentals and prices. Here is a summary of what is happening with PayPal!! Price down 79% from peak. This is also 98% discount if you consider drawdown of prices from ATH Most of the fundamentals are almost at all-time high. Exception is cashflow - that is in the negative territory Profit and operating margins are down slightly compared to its ATH Returns in comparison to capital, earning and assets are near ATH Debts have significantly increased Though the algorithm says probability of being discounted is pretty high, it takes all aspects into consideration and gives equal weightage. Will the significant increase in debt play a major role in the reduction of value, considering the increasing interest rates?
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Trendoscope
22
Europe (VGK) slides right as folks head on holidayThe Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) was an early-year relative winner as foreign equities generally outperformed the US stock market. Then came the March pullback which brought about a risk-off environment and flight to the dollar - both factor hurting relative returns of VGK. Even with a notable retreat in the greenback and a gradual shift favoring cyclical and small caps in late May through July, VGK did not perform all that well on a relative basis to the SPX. Nevertheless, the Financials, Industrials, and Health Care-heavy fund managed to claw its way toward 52-week highs by late last month. The first two trading sessions of August - a noted time when much of the continent's populous is on vacation - have featured a downside price action on high volume. Moreover, a bullish false breakdown in the dollar only adds to technical and intermarket headwinds for VGK here. I see support in the $59 to $60 zone while $64 is obvious resistance. A bigger Q3 pullback, always wont to occur, could lead to a target toward the mid- FWB:50S (that would be a material 14% correction).
AMEX:VGKShort
by mikezaccardi
8
Does weakness in Chinese stocks spell trouble for the U.S. ones?A while ago, we drew attention to the intriguing correlation between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. In fact, we presumed that if the Chinese economy and stock market were doing well (following the reopening after Covid-19), it would be inherently positive for the U.S. stock market and could postpone a recession to later. From around October 2022, both indices were rising in tandem. However, in March 2023, the positive correlation between the two started to weaken, and the U.S. stock market kept rising while Chinese stocks began to move increasingly sideways, finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. We find this development interesting as specific U.S. stock titles are reaching highly overbought levels, and the general theme in the media continues to be that of “soft landing” and that we have nothing to worry about. Seemingly everyone seems to forget that regional banks started to implode in 1Q23, and without the FED stepping in and providing more liquidity to the market, the situation would have been much worse. Then, on top of that, the FED keeps hiking into a slowing economy with many subtle signs of a recession already presenting themselves. We believe that if the Chinese stock market continues to roll over, then it can potentially lead to the spillover effect. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correlation between the SPX and HSI (Hang Seng Index). It can be easily observed that both indices trended down from October 2021 until October 2022. After that, both indices trended together to the upside until late March 2023, when SPX kept increasing, but HSI began finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of HSI and the resistance area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
51
Cisco Pulls Back After JumpingThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has been moving lately, and today we’ll consider index member Cisco Systems. The networking giant spent about a year trapped below the $52 area. That zone marked a top in April, June and early this month. However CSCO broke above it on July 19 and ran to a new 52-week high. It retreated on Friday to hold the earlier peak. Old resistance may have become new support. Second, the pullback brought CSCO back to its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 8-day EMA remains also remains above the 21-day EMA. Those points may suggest its recent short-term uptrend remains in effect. Finally, the stock rallied after its last two earnings reports. Will that positive history provide a tailwind for the shares with the next set of numbers due on August 16? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:CSCO
by TradeStation
8
EURUSD - Breaking Down Buying Opportunities for the Week AheadHere's a look at the FX:EURUSD & the potential buying opportunities that I have on my radar for the week ahead. More specifically what I'm looking at is a potential Bat Pattern with multiple points of confluence that can be used as a strictly in & out type of countertrend trade or an entry into a longer-term continuation setup depending on your big picture view. As always if you have any questions, comments or just want to share you views on the EURUSD please leave them below & please remember to hit that ROCKET SHIP button before you leave to show me some love. Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
51
As we approach new highs, what's the bear case?Historically, a rebound of this magnitude has almost always indicated that the bear market is over and that we've entered a new bull market. And there's plenty of reason to be optimistic right now. With the US dollar down, US manufacturing numbers have been coming in above expectations (PMI of 49 in July, vs. 46.7 estimate). Consumer confidence and home prices were also stronger than expected this week. The liquidity crisis for regional banks seems to have resolved itself, and the uptick in continuing jobless claims (USCJC) seems to have stabilized, at least for now. The ECRI weekly leading index is forecasting positive US growth. Yesterday, the Fed said it's no longer forecasting a recession. Preliminarily, it kinda seems like the magnitude of stimulus and interest rate hikes were in the right ballpark to actually stick a soft landing this cycle (with a big assist from the AI productivity boom). But as the market pushes toward new highs, let's consider what might be the bear case. Because markets love to surprise, and I do think there are some worrying signs. 1. Inflation could come roaring back, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates high. A few weeks ago, interest rate futures were forecasting a 99% probability that rates would be lower by this time next year. But now it's only 87%, with a 2% chance that rates will actually be higher next July. Why are rate futures getting more hawkish? Basically because housing costs have been slow to correct and commodities prices have been climbing since May, which points to the possibility that inflation may continue to run hot. Why might housing prices and commodities stay hot? Well, for housing, it's basically because there's a shortage . We've got more real estate agents than houses for sale, by a wide margin. I do think housing prices will gradually come down, but it may take quite a while to normalize without a supply-side fix. And for commodities? Well, there are basically two problems. First, geopolitics are extremely ugly right now. You've got active insurgencies in huge swaths of Africa and the Middle East, and you've got Russia threatening to blockade food shipments on the Black Sea. That all drives commodity prices up. And second, you've got a six-sigma temperature anomaly that's destroying crops. Global warming seems to be running ahead of forecasts, which raises the worrying possibility that we've hit some kind of climate change tipping point and the North Atlantic Current might collapse sooner rather than later. That would be not only very inflationary for food prices, but also very bearish for equities in Europe and the US. Something to keep an eye on, for sure. 2. Expectations may be too high, especially for tech. Investors have been throwing money at tech companies because of the AI boom, on the assumption that these companies will be the main beneficiaries of it. But the reality, in my opinion, is that AI greatly erodes the value of their intellectual properties. For instance, ChatGPT has dramatically reduced the cost for me spin up a competitor product or even an open-source version of any major enterprise SaaS. The big software firms are going to have to throw a lot of money and people at AI in order to keep their edge. So far, only Microsoft is doing a really good job. And what about semiconductors? The AI boom is good for semis, because all that AI requires a lot of GPUs. But you know what? With rapid advances in the field, the compute demands have come down a lot . I can train a LLaMa model on a Colab notebook now, which is insane. Meanwhile, there's a semiconductor inventory glut on a scale not seen since 2001. Chips have been an extremely good bet for decades, and investors have rightly thrown a lot of money at them. But it's possible that we may now be late-cycle for the industry. Overall, I think the expectations for the S&P 500, and especially for Big Tech, may just be too high. We've got P/E above 26 at a time when profit margins are in a slide. My models point to a P/E in the 21–23 range as more appropriate for the current rates of interest and inflation. So it may be that there's not much room left for multiple expansion to lift the market higher here, so productivity gains will have to do a lot of work. 3. Liquidity remains a concern. In addition to raising interest rates, the Fed is continuing to shrink its balance sheet. Liquidity from the Fed has driven a lot of the market gains over the last decade, so a shrinking balance sheet is a headwind for stocks. There's also some reason to think consumers and small businesses have some cash flow issues right now. Last month, the Fed published a report showing an unusually high level of commercial financial distress. Auto loan delinquencies also hit a high last month. As long as money and jobs don't get any tighter than they already are, we probably won't see anything break. But if inflation rises again and we see more interest rate hikes, then there may still be some systemic risk. Conclusion I'm definitely not betting on a major bear market here. But this close to a major resistance level, it's worth looking parking some money in cash or bonds or putting on a hedge. S&P 500 puts are somewhat cheap right now, so it's not a terrible time to buy protection. And long-term bonds are on the cheap end of the range they've been trading in since last November, so it's also not a terrible time to put on bonds. I'm basically just thinking in terms of modest rotation and rebalancing here.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
70
EUR/USD Short and NZD/CAD ShortEUR/USD Short • If price corrects and a larger one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/CAD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
30
The Implications of Nasdaq 100 RebalancingCME: Micro Nasdaq 100 Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ), E-Mini S&P Technology Select Sector Futures ( CME_MINI:XAK1! ) The Nasdaq 100 index tracks the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Since its inception over 38 years ago, it has become the world’s preeminent large-cap growth index. So far in 2023, Nasdaq 100 has surged 42%, far outpacing the 18.7% gain from the S&P 500 and the 6.4% return by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This big rally has prompted the Nasdaq to implement an index "Special Rebalance". What’s going on here? Nasdaq-100: Market-cap weighted Index with a Twist In the world of stock market indices, the two most common construction methodologies are equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted. The Nasdaq 100 is market-cap weighted, meaning the weight of each component is based on its market cap as a percentage of the aggregate market cap of the index. The higher the market cap, the bigger the weight. Nasdaq performs regular quarterly weight adjustments in March, June, September, and December. To prevent the index from becoming too top-heavy and unbalanced, Nasdaq imposes weight limits in its Nasdaq Index Weight Adjustment Guidelines. • No security weight may exceed 14% of the index. • If the aggregate weight of the five largest market capitalizations is more than 40%, they will be adjusted to 38.5%. • No security outside the largest five market cap companies may have a final index weight exceeding 4.4%. The list below shows index weight as of June 30th, the last quarterly adjustment, and the most recent market cap as of July 21st, for the top ten companies in Nasdaq 100: • No. 1, Microsoft (MSFT): market cap $2,556bn, index weight 12.92% • No. 2, Apple (AAPL): $3,019bn (12.57%) • No. 3, Nvidia (NVDA): $1,094bn (6.94%) • No. 4, Amazon (AMZN): $1,334bn (6.85%) • No. 5, Tesla (TSLA): $830bn (4.25%) • No. 6, Meta (META): $756bn (4.22%) • No. 7, Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): $1,560bn (3.71%) • No. 8, Alphabet Class C (GOOGL): $1,599bn (3.64%) • No. 9, Broadcom (AVGO): $373bn (2.40%) • No. 10, PepsiCo (PEP): $263bn (1.70%) • Top-5: market cap $8,833bn, index weight: 43.53% • Top-10: market cap $13,384bn, index weight: 59.20% • Nasdaq 100 (^NDX): aggregate market cap $25,990bn The Top-5 has already breached the 40% mark and will be brought down to 38.5% in the “Special Rebalance” to address the concerns of over-concentration: “A Special Rebalance may be conducted at any time based on the weighting restrictions described in the Index Rebalance Procedure if it is determined to be necessary to maintain the integrity of the Index.” How will this Rebalancing Impact Investors? According to the Nasdaq, over $500 billion in exchange traded funds (ETF) are tied to the Nasdaq-100, including Invesco QQQ ETF, iShares Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF and ProShares UltraPro QQQ, just to name a few. If each fund tracks the Nasdaq 100 closely and responds to the rebalancing immediately, the Top-5 stocks in the portfolio will be reduced by 5% (from 43.5% to 38.5%). This would create short-term selling pressure in tens of billions of dollars. To put the figures in context: although the Top-5 companies have an aggregate market cap of nearly $9 trillion, they have a modest daily float. Based on my calculation, the average daily transaction value over the past three months was only $77 billion, less than 1% of their market valuation, with 337 million shares changing hands. Leading up to the rebalancing, we are seeing larger trade volume and higher volatility: • On July 21st, Microsoft had a trade volume of 69.3 million shares, vs. its 3-month average volume of 29.3 million shares; • Nvidia: trade volume 96.2m vs. 3-mo average 49.3m • Alphabet: trade volume 55.5m vs. 3-mo average 26.4m • Amazon: trade volume 69.5m vs. 3-mo average 63.6m Since peaking at 15,932 on July 19th, Nasdaq 100 has trended down in the last three trading sessions, currently trading at 15,455 on the morning of July 24th. Arbitrage Opportunity between Technology Indexes The Nasdaq 100 rebalancing is a unique issue with the Nasdaq 100 index. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of these companies and has no impact on other Tech sector stock indexes which also include the same component companies. The S&P Technology Select Sector (XAK) has over 90% correlation with Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) historically. The former includes Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, but not Alphabet or Amazon. In the past five years, XAK outperformed MNQ by 40%. In the past five trading days, MNQ underperformed XAK by 1%, likely due to the impact of the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing. In the long run, Nasdaq 100 rebalance will dilute the impact of the largest stocks in the index. Strong growth in Big Tech will be fully represented in XAK but capped in MNQ. This, in my opinion, would result in a widening spread between XAK and MNQ. XAK futures contract is based on $100 x S&P Select Sector Technology Index. At 1,786.6, each XAK contract has a notional value of $178,660 on July 21st. CME requires an initial margin of $9,500. MNQ contract is based on $2 x Nasdaq 100 Index. At 15,555, each MNQ has a notional value of $31,110. CME requires an initial margin of $1,680. Based on the relative notional values, someone bullish on the spread could establish a trade with 1 long XAK and 6 short MNQ. Using the last five days as an example: • If XAK increases by 1%, the long end of the trade would show a gain of $1,787 (17.9 x 100). If, during the same period, MNQ is flat, the short end would have no gain or loss. This spread combination would have a net gain of $1,787. • Using initial margins of $19,580 as a cost base, this equates to a one-week return of +9.1%. For comparison, if a trader invests in a Nasdaq 100 ETF and the index gains 1%, the return would also be 1%. Trading in futures comes with a leverage that would supercharge the gain if you were on the right direction. The spread trade would loss money if MNQ has a stronger performance than XAK. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:XAK1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
AUDNZD LONDON OPEN SHORT (SIGNALS)📉AUDNZD SELL 📉 💰Take Profit 1 - 1.0832 💰Take Profit 2 - 1.0782 💰Take Profit 3 - 1.0732 ❌ Stop loss - 1.1012 Here is my analysis of AUDNZD: The AUDNZD pair has been in a bearish trend for the past few weeks, and it is currently trading near the bottom of its range. The current spot rate is 1.0912, and a sell entry point of 1.0912 is just above the recent low of 1.0892. There are a few reasons why AUDNZD could continue to fall in the near term. First, the AUD is generally seen as a commodity currency, and it has been weakening against the NZD in recent weeks as commodity prices have fallen. Second, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates more slowly than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which could weaken the AUD against the NZD. Finally, the NZD has been supported by the recent decline in risk appetite. However, there are also some risks to consider before entering a trade on AUDNZD. The forex market is volatile, and there is always the risk of a reversal. Additionally, the economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand is uncertain, which could impact the price of AUDNZD. Overall, I think AUDNZD is a good pair to trade for those who are looking for a short-term bearish trend. However, it is important to remember that the forex market is volatile, and there is always the risk of a reversal. Here are some additional factors that you may want to consider before entering a trade on AUDNZD: The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand. The level of volatility in the forex market. The price of commodities, such as oil and gold.
Short
by AWFX_Official
30
Tesla's Q2 2023:Accelerating into the Future with Record RevenueIn the recently released Q2 2023 earnings report, Tesla Inc. presented a record quarter on multiple fronts, showcasing its resilience and innovation in a challenging macroeconomic environment. The electric vehicle and clean energy company reported a 9.6% operating margin, GAAP operating income of $2.4 billion, GAAP net income of $2.7 billion, and non-GAAP net income of $3.1 billion. Despite price reductions in Q1 and early Q2, Tesla's operating margin remained robust, reflecting the company's ongoing cost reduction efforts, successful production ramp-ups in Berlin and Texas, and strong performance in the Energy and Services & Other sectors. The company's cash and investments increased by $0.7 billion in Q2, reaching a total of $23.1 billion. Tesla's Cybertruck factory tooling is progressing as planned, with the company currently producing RC (release candidates) builds. The Model Y, one of Tesla's most popular models, became the best-selling vehicle globally in Q1, demonstrating the company's growing market dominance. The company's total automotive revenues reached $21,268 million, marking a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 46%. The Energy generation and storage sector also saw significant growth, with revenues of $1,509 million, a YoY increase of 74%. Services and other revenue rose by 47% YoY to $2,150 million. Overall, Tesla's total revenues for Q2 2023 were $24,927 million, a 47% YoY increase. In terms of production, Tesla manufactured 19,489 Model S/X vehicles and 460,211 Model 3/Y vehicles in Q2 2023, representing YoY increases of 19% and 90% respectively. The total deliveries of Model S/X were 19,225, a YoY increase of 19%. The total deliveries of Model 3/Y were 446,915, a YoY increase of 87%. Tesla's installed annual vehicle capacity continues to expand. In California, the capacity for Model S/X is 100,000, and for Model 3/Y it's 550,000. In Shanghai, the capacity for Model 3/Y is over 750,000. In Berlin, the capacity for Model Y is 375,000. In Texas, the capacity for Model Y is over 250,000. The company also highlighted its commitment to AI development, with the production of Dojo training computers commencing. This development is expected to satisfy Tesla's immense neural net training needs using in-house designed Dojo hardware, which will enable faster and cheaper neural net training. For new Model 3 or Y customers, Tesla launched the "Get To Know Your Tesla" experience. This initiative allows users to adjust their seats, mirrors, and steering wheel, set up the phone key, and learn about topics such as regenerative braking. In conclusion , Tesla's Q2 2023 shareholder deck paints a picture of a company that continues to innovate and grow despite external challenges. With a focus on cost reduction, new product development, investments in R&D, continuous product improvement, and the generation of free cash flow, Tesla is well-positioned for long-term success. Read more in the comment section...
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by financialflagship
42
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
TSLA Approaches Major Resistance and May Stall into July 21Primary Chart: TSLA on Weekly Time Frame with a Downtrend Line from the All-Time High and Fibonacci and Measured-Move Levels Preliminary Comments TSLA is poised to stall soon, perhaps into July 21. By definition, a stall does not necessitate a crash or major trend reversal (at the primary degree of trend). A major reversal downward (crash) is always possible especially once shorts have been decimated—major downward reversals seem to always wait for clearing out of hedging and shorts, right? Although a major trend reversal could occur here given major resistance levels just overhead on higher time frames, no one has a crystal ball. Finding the time and price components of such a major reversal can be exceedingly difficult (note the conclusion section of this article about probabilities). And no one who were to have a crystal ball that worked properly would share it. And a securities regulator would be sniffing around for insider trading for sure with too many trades lining up too perfectly especially before major news catalysts. Humor aside, trying to be too clever by calling the exact top is a misplaced endeavor. But it can be prudent to analyze the charts and consider the idea of vulnerability for a trend’s continuation in the short-to-intermediate term, i.e., whether the move might encounter major resistance that could at a minimum cause a mean reversion or retracement of the recent rally . Trend Analysis The charts don’t lie. TSLA’s intermediate-term trend since January 6, 2023 remains upward. Similarly, short-term (2-6 weeks) and intraday trends remain upward. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered over a 2-3 year period, while the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains firmly upward. 1. Secular trend (since 2010): uptrend 2. Primary trend (since 2020/2021): sideways trend (range) 3. Intermediate / secondary trend (since early 2023): uptrend 4. short-term trend: uptrend near crucial resistance 5. intraday trends: uptrend near crucial resistance Supplementary Chart A: Primary Trend Supplementary Chart B: Secular Trend The intermediate term trend has run fast and furious for 1H 2023 (since the Jan. 6, 2023 low). That alone is not enough to expect a reversal. Shorting something merely because it seems to have risen too far is a well-known trading mistake comparable to catching a falling knife in a downtrend. Shorting powerful uptrends is not an easy way to make a living. But several charts suggest vulnerability for TSLA’s rally at this level. This comes right as earning will be reported this week along with a major monthly options expiration on July 21. Earnings reports like TSLA's upcoming one present a binary risk event that could stretch prices significantly in either direction, or it could a whipsaw price in both directions before settling on a final directional move (see the section below titled “Trend vs. Fundamentals.”) Supplementary Chart C shows that TSLA’s price is nearing a crucial Fibonacci level on a linear chart. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($299.05) of its entire decline from its all-time high into the early January 2023 low. Coincidentally, this level shows confluence with other important resistance levels shown on the chart such as the down trendline from the all-time high. (Some prefer Fibonacci levels adjusted for a logarithmic chart, which is not shown. The next relevant upside Fibonacci level on a log chart, however, is the .786 of the entire decline at $306, which is not far from the .618 level at 295.05. Supplementary Chart C If the .618 Fibonacci retracement is overcome and held (not just a false breakout), this suggests prices may run higher to at least $314.67 or the next higher Fibonacci level at $347. But these are upside levels conditioned solely on the .618 retracement being overcome and held. Next, consider the down trendline from TSLA's all-time high. This is being approached at around $300, right were significant call OI exists. Trendlines can be somewhat rigid measures of trend, but they can provide some value especially when other support / resistance levels coincide with the trendline. The down trendline from TSLA's all-time high runs right into the measured-move zone, shown by the blue circle on Supplementary Chart D.1. Supplementary Chart D.1 Some traders prefer to look only at logarithmic charts, though here it doesn't add much to the technical picture since the trendline is quite close to where it lies on the linear chart. Supplementary Chart D.2 Finally, some bearish divergences in momentum and price/volume indicators suggest that price has become quite stretched right at a time when TSLA has reached some major resistance levels. Supplementary Chart E shows the Elder Force Index (EFI), a useful indicator that displays a combination of volume and price, weighing the extent of each price change along with the extent of volume. It tends to pick up divergences in the "force" or commitment behind a move with more sensitivity than RSI or other common momentum indicators, but with increased sensitivity often comes more noise (more false signals) which can be helped to some extent through indicator adjustment. Nevertheless, here is what that indicator shows for TSLA on the daily timeframe: Supplementary Chart E As TSLA has made higher highs, it has done so with less force and commitment for each high, creating a divergence between higher price highs and lower EFI highs. TSLA may make a new YTD high this week, and if so, it will be important to see where the EFI high prints for that new high. Given how low EFI is currently, it would take a lot of volume and price change to move the high to exceed the prior EFIs (erasing the divergence). In SquishTrade's view, EFI is unlikely to erase both the June EFI high and the January EFI high even if TSLA runs to $300-$320 post earnings. Supplementary Chart F shows RSI and ROC, two common momentum indicators which most readers understand well. ROC shows a series of three highs that each make a successively lower high while price made higher highs at the same time: January 2023, June 2023, and July 2023. RSI only shows a series of two highs where price made a higher high and RSI made a lower high. Supplementary Chart F Downside Targets TSLA's price seems poised to pullback / retrace at a minimum. But referring to downside targets may seem a bit premature as price hasn't confirmed even a short-term reversal or the start of a retracement / consolidation within the intermediate trend yet. The technical conditions for a retracement are present, so if confirmation lower does occur in the next week or so, price can fall to trend support, however one decides to measure that within one's trading system. Based on persistently and deeply inverted yield curves, many astute market players may be looking for more than just a retracement or consolidation within the intermediate uptrend. They want more than mean reversion, and that is understandable. Should TSLA followers expect that now? Today, July 15, 2023, confidence cannot exist about an impending trend reversal on higher time frames. Why? A major reversal where price retests / breaks January 2023 lows will likely coincide with recessionary economic data (e.g., rising UE rates), drastically changing EPS estimates based on disappointing earnings reports, and/or unexpectedly high interest rates across the curve because of sticky inflation won't budge further downward (the recent CPI print came in at 3% for headline but 4.8% for core for June 2023). Note: Fundamentals are discussed in greater depth in the next section below. But economic data has continued to come in better than expected. Recent real GDP print for Q1 2023 was recently raised to 2% and labor markets remain persistently tight as the Fed even has noted in its recent pressers. Inflation has cooled for June but this may result from basing effects. Most importantly, trend structure on the weekly and daily time frames (intermediate and short-term) has not been broken. Until the intermediate trend structure is decisively broken, forecasting a major top / trend reversal is rash and unfounded from a technical viewpoint. This intermediate-term trend structure is the up trendline from January 2023 lows or some other more dynamic or flexible measures of trend. So with the idea that price can run a bit higher before any retracement—since we haven't yet seen a confirmation lower yet—these downside targets remain conditioned on a short-term trend reversal. For now, the targets also must be considered corrective retracements / mean-reversion targets within the context of the current trend until the evidence proves otherwise. Conservative Target: $245-$250 Moderate Target: $232-$238 Aggressive Target: $199-$218 Trends vs. Fundamentals A purely technical analyst or technically oriented trend trader tends to consider only the trend and technical evidence supporting that objective. At critical junctures after retracements / corrective moves, this means favoring trend continuation rather than a reversal until the evidence says otherwise. And pure trend following means seeing the odds as favoring mean reversion when a trend gets too extended or stretched rather than reversal. Ambiguity as to trend on varying time frames often confounds the discussion of trends. This is why it's important to remain precise and focused on time frames. For example, a long term secular trend in a given index can be upward while a primary trend can be downward or sideways (retracing / consolidating within the secular uptrend) while an intermediate trend can be upward (retracing or consolidating the primary downtrend)—and intraday traders levered up on calls and riding the short-term rip may be so hyperfocused on a rip in the short term that they dismiss a long-term analyst’s accurate characterization of corrective rally within a primary downtrend. This is just a hypothetical example of how vagueness around terminology and time frames doesn’t can obfuscate the proper technical approach to a given security. As discussed, TSLA’s trend right now is upward on the intermediate trend and minor (short-term) trends. But the primary trend is still arguably sideways when considered from 2-3 years ago. And the secular trend since 2010 arguably still remains upward. But may a trend trader peek outside the trend? That is a complicated question without a definite answer. For those wanting to explore whether it’s prudent to look at non-technical evidence outside the scope of the trend (e.g., considering the fundamentals and the broader macro), the following post offers some cost-benefit analysis and suggestions: For those who wish to avoid being influenced by fundamental information, please skip this paragraph and read on to the next one. Andrew Dickson, the founder of Albert Bridge Capital and CIO of Alpha Europe Funds recently noted the following incongruities (downtrends) in EPS-estimate trends vs. price trends: 1. In late 2022, TSLA’s sell-side analysts expected $6.34 EPS in 2023 (about 9 months ago estimates). 2. After TSLA reported delivery numbers in early July, Dickson noted that “despite today's apparent 4% rev beat (implied from delivery-numbers) for Q2, 2023 EPS expectations have plummeted to $3.50. So earnings expectations for TSLA are now down -55% in 9 months and yet the stock is up +15%.” 3. He concluded that "the 2023 P/E multiple has expanded from 38x to 79x, or by 107%." Dickson’s comments show that price is often not driven by fundamentals. Exactly what was priced in when the stock plummeted to $100 in January? And what is different now has nearly doubled off the lows? Or maybe the question is whether the data that gets priced in has different (and ever changing) weightings depending on the type of data. For example, maybe the data that affects price is most heavily weighted toward liquidity, capital flows, sentiment, seasonality, rather than fundamentals. But David Lundgren, a combined technical and fundamental analyst for whom SquishTrade has utmost respect, highly regards technical analysis, and especially favors technicals in the short / intermediate term, but says that fundamentals always matter in the long run. Here is a quotation from Lundgren from notes I've taken on his commentary in interviews and articles: "In the long-term, actual fundamentals will simply overwhelm any short-term technicals, emotions, sentiments driving a security or market price action." Concluding Comments Traders think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Further, traders' time frames, risk management, and position sizes vary dramatically, which is why it seems imprudent to blindly follow another person’s signal service (whether paid or free). One very knowledgeable TV follower of mine has shorted TSLA with a position size that gives him a sizable margin of error. In other words, he can wait and allow significant fluctuations in price before getting shaken out of the position. My inference from our conversations is that his short thesis is based on deeply and persistently inverted yield curves, volatility being at major lows, deteriorating fundamentals at TSLA and other broader macro problems. But macro and fundamentals can take a great deal of time to unfold, i.e., they do not play out immediately, and if they did, the big short should have been weeks or months ago. This year everyone thought a recession would be here by now, including experts with long-term experience managing or advising multi-billion dollar funds. This does not mean my fellow trader must be wrong. His thesis might yet succeed with time and patience, or it may yet experience more pressure or even be stopped out. This is why position size, risk management, and time frames matter. Before entering a trade or investment, one must consider time frame, position size, risk tolerance, risk management, technical or fundamental evidence, and an invalidation or stop level (which defines risk and relates integrally to position size). Shorter-term traders with leveraged, derivative, or supersized short positions would have already gotten crushed trying to short TSLA or other mega cap leaders the last few weeks or months.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
175
XRP: FINALLY💥 RIPPLE Victory in SEC CaseHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 Congratulations to all the XRP HODLERS 🤩🥂 (quick recap) ...The SEC case against Ripple was a legal battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP cryptocurrency. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging that XRP is a security and that Ripple had violated securities laws by selling XRP without registering it with the SEC. Ripple Labs denied the SEC's allegations, arguing that XRP is not a security but a digital currency. The case went to trial in February 2023, and on July 12, 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled in favor of Ripple Labs. Torres found that the SEC had failed to adequately prove that XRP is a security, and she dismissed the case. The ruling is a major victory for Ripple Labs and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. It could have far-reaching implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States. 👉The SEC failed to prove that XRP is a security. 👉The ruling could have far-reaching implications for the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States. 👉The ruling is a major victory for Ripple Labs and the cryptocurrency industry as a whole. This furthermore confirms my bias for the beginning of AltSeason 2023, check it out here: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
KRAKEN:XRPUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
116
COIN H&S Breakout ContinuesCoinbase continues to gain after breaking up and out of the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, price is up +10% today - trade was initiated last week upon seeing the inverse head and shoulders breakout. Due to the pop in price today I've raised my stop-loss level to $85.75 in case price reverses on profit taking. This stop level ensures that I exit the trade with a gain if price reverses, while at the same time leaves some room for volatility if price begins to fluctuate. Lower PPO and TDI indicators are still reading bullish, but the green RSI line of the TDI indicator is now above the 80 level which is considered overbought meaning a correction to the downside can be expected. Buy Price: $79.21 Stop-Loss: $85.75 Take Profit: $136-ish Gain if I get stopped out at $85.75: +8.2% Gain if price reaches take-profit level: +71% This stop level will remain adaptive to price movement, price has gained another 3% in the few minutes it took me to write this and COIN is now up +13% on the day.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by PrepForProfit
25
NVIDIA - Bears, This Is Your ChanceIn a previous post on NVIDIA following its earnings gap all time high, I posited that a bearish three drives was a real possibility, which would involve the stock actually going down and then driving up a few more times in accordance with the overall market topping: NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few. That never panned out, and instead what we're looking at instead, as you can tell with all the insider selling, is a very likely bump and run reversal. But distribution patterns take a very long time to manifest, and one of the biggest tells with NVIDIA is despite it going from $366 to $440, it really has never targeted the sell side, not even rebalancing the original gap. As far as this company goes... well, when you come across something like this whose CEO is a Taiwanese dude prancing around in a leather jacket for every photo op while it's trading like a Chinese Communist Party pump and dump, a number of red flags beyond the 250x P/E it's trading at should emerge. Companies and their officers who have connections to the CCP are very dangerous, for the geopolitical situation is tense. Much is at stake right now with Mainland China and whether or not Xi Jinping is intelligent enough to get rid of the Party. If Xi can't get rid of the Party, then the International Rules Based Order will do it for him and will go to install their own people from Taiwan in the Mainland. Xi always has the option to weaponize the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong, started by the Jiang Zemin faction that's rooted in Shanghai, to take down the Party and defend China from the groups that wish to invade. Live organ harvesting isn't a sin that can survive public scrutiny, really. None of this is healthy for the markets, and if you're long on stocks at the top, some of them aren't coming back. The indexes might come back, but many companies definitely go to zero and will be replaced by a future generation. When you look at NVIDIA on the monthly, does this look like somewhere that you want to go long? A monthly "gap" like this will certainly always be filled, and it just happens to be right around the actual level we're looking to target. The weekly bars are severely ranged compressed, which tells us that a big move is coming I have a call on that Nasdaq that we're about to get a pretty violent and serious correction, but that it will really be a bear trap: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap You might feel right now that stocks ONLY GO UPPY. But considering you're in a bear market and these things have been mooning for like an entire quarter right now, you might want to check that notion before that notion wrecks you. The problem with NVIDIA going and making a new high right now is it's failed to do so twice. Friday's end of the day was a big rejection on everything Nasdaq. And this is a time when price stopped just 1.8% short of the high. So what it was really doing was covering the old range, and taking stops over the most subordinate high to the all time high. Another big tell is the SOXS and SOXL 3x leverage semiconductor ETFs are simultaneously setup on weekly and daily candles to breakout/retrace, and both started to do that in sync on the Friday dump. NVIDIA is the top component of the index underlying the ETF at roughly 9%. The most obvious place for it to retrace to to start taking out sell stops is the $395 gap. But this is only 5% at this point and not very scary. Meanwhile, all the bulls and all the bears start selling on a break of $366, because Discord and Reddit told them to and some books and guru videos told them to "because confirmation." Once the gap is finally balanced, I believe that Nasdaq is going to rip to something like 16,000 before we're done, and NVIDIA will actually finish its lifespan with a 5-handle. So for bears: here's your opportunity. But you better have realistic expectations. For bulls: here's your opportunity. But you better have patience in buying the dip, and you'll find you "made a lot of money getting out of the market too early." And for bulls and bears: stay away from ponzi companies and social distance from the CCP and all the Marxist-Leninist and atheist things. If you don't, you'll face more than the liquidation of your brokerage accounts, to say the very least.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by LordWrymouth
159