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USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
3
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s strength in global markets. How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the world’s primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends. Correlation with Major Currency Pairs Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa. Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX. Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices. Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies. Macro and Sentiment Indicator The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows. Summary Aspect Effect on Forex Trading Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollar’s strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
VIX is a VIXjust having a little fun in a chat about how i chart the VIX. i say a VIX is a VIX. when we are spiking, we are spiking and we should become cautious if we don't know how to manage in that environment (intense bearish environment). this recent spike has proven that there are bullish moments that can be gleamed, but you have to be clear about your targets . if someone has more to add about VIX royalty, please do share. otherwise, pick one to monitor if that is even your thing. no need to clutter your toolbox with VIX concepts... says me. shout out to @BradMatheny. your work is amazing. thank you for sharing a bit here and there. i'm going to make time to learn more from you. tootles
TVC:VIX
by mommymiles
I SPY an opportunity to riseThe "macro" environment has an extreme bearish tone. There is a great deal of uncertainty still. So let's look to the charts to see what's the deal. Monday morning was a spill over from Trump's tantrums and we bounced at the end of the day Monday with a wick. Interesting note... big tech earnings was beginning. What a perfect time to see some rise on the charts. NFLX already had us anticipating some positive movement b/c of their Good Friday earnings. So most people were focused on the play of 1000-1100. So many people took a position. Back to SPY... Trump stated after hours after during TSLAs awful earnings call that he was not going to fire JPowell and TSLA began rallying as well as other big tech companies (interesting). The rallies held overnight. There were selloffs after the earnings, creating HL (higher lows) that held across many charts. The week proceeded and we slowly rose the rest of the week. I'm recalling that Trump initiated a 90 day pause. & though their is still negative chatter and uncertainty with the final outcome; it's enough to have bullish thoughts for the remainder of the earnings season (esp big tech and major companies) while we chop. Cautiously viewing the charts one day at a time; watching for candlestick patterns to assist with plays. If the pattern is bullish, looking for a bullish play. if the pattern is bearish, looking for a bearish play. Or... just pick a side and wait for what you connect to. My notes on candle recognition below over the next week will be below. Tootles
AMEX:SPY
by mommymiles
2
What the S&P did and what to look forward to this coming week. A walkthrough different levels on the S&P for the short term (1-2 weeks). The S&P broke above a key weekly downtrend line this past week, shifting the structure slightly more bullish in the short term. We’re now testing an important resistance zone with multiple possible scenarios ahead. Scenarios for the Week Ahead: Bullish: If the S&P holds above the breakout zone (5484) and continues climbing, we could see a move toward 5,650 (near the declining 50SMA). Some minor pauses or consolidations could occur at moving averages, but overall momentum would remain constructive if buyers stay active. Bearish: If the S&P fails to hold above 5,484 and breaks back below the uptrend line, we could see a pullback toward (in this order) 10 and 20 EMAs, recent uptrend line, or at most the key level around 5,264. A deeper breakdown seems less likely unless broader selling pressure returns. Neutral: Think this would be a chop between where it is at now and 5650.
SP:SPXLong
by emanuelaelias
ANALISI TECNICA MERCATI AMERICANIHappy Saturday to all traders! In this video we analyze the American market and see what we can expect in the coming weeks. Recently, the markets have reacted positively to the statements of President Trump, who made it clear that he has no intention of removing Jerome Powell from the leadership of the Federal Reserve. This reassurance helped to allay concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to a rally in the main indices: the Nasdaq gained 2.3%, the S&P 500 1.4% and the Dow Jones 1%.​ In addition, the administration has shown signs of openness towards reducing trade tariffs with China, fueling investor optimism. Despite the recent reassurances, uncertainties related to the Fed's monetary policy remain. Powell stressed that, although inflation is falling, there is no rush to proceed with further rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach. Investors will therefore need to carefully monitor the upcoming macroeconomic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, which could influence the Fed's future decisions. Next week promises to be decisive for the US stock markets. Although the recent statements by Trump and Powell have helped improve investor sentiment, the presence of technical resistance and uncertainty about the Fed's future policies suggest caution. An upward break of key levels could confirm the continuation of the positive trend, while signs of weakness could indicate the need for a consolidation phase. Have a good weekend everyone and happy trading. Thanks Ciao Mauro I will mention my three rules that I constantly cultivate: Patience, discipline and always have a plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Mauro_Mariani
SILVERSilver’s supply-demand dynamics in 2025 are characterized by persistent deficits and surging industrial demand, setting the stage for significant price action. Here’s how these factors are shaping the market: Supply Constraints and Deficit Dynamics Fifth Consecutive Annual Deficit The silver market is projected to face a 182 million-ounce deficit in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of demand outpacing supply. Key drivers include: Production stagnation: Global silver supply has declined over the past decade, with 2024 production at 1.03 billion ounces, insufficient to meet demand of 1.21 billion ounces. Recycling limitations: Industrial applications (e.g., electronics, solar panels) often result in permanent silver loss, reducing recyclable supply. Geopolitical and Mining Risks Mexico and Russia, which collectively contribute ~21% of global production, face regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions, further straining supply. New deposits in Poland (potential 150M ounces/year by 2030) offer long-term relief but minimal impact for 2025. Demand Drivers Fueling Price Pressure Industrial Demand Surge Solar energy: Accounts for 15–20% of total demand, driven by global net-zero initiatives. AI and tech: Silver’s conductivity makes it critical for semiconductors and 5G infrastructure. EVs: Rising adoption increases silver use in batteries and electrical components. Monetary and Safe-Haven Demand Declining gold-to-silver ratio (88:1 as of March 2025) suggests silver is undervalued relative to gold, historically a precursor to rallies. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflationary pressures boost silver’s appeal as a hedge. Price Action Implications for 2025 Factor Bullish Catalysts Bearish Risks Supply Persistent deficits, mining disruptions Polish deposits (long-term) Demand Industrial growth, safe-haven inflows Economic slowdown reducing industrial use Macro Weak USD, geopolitical tensions Trade wars (e.g., Trump tariffs) Bullish: Analysts at Citi, UBS, and Saxo Bank forecast $38–$50, citing supply deficits and industrial momentum. Speculative: Potential for $70–$100 if deficit narratives accelerate, though contested due to recycling and new supply. In summary, silver’s supply roof breakout in 2025-marked by structural deficits and industrial demand growth-supports a bullish outlook. While short-term volatility from profit-taking or trade policies may occur, the confluence of constrained supply and expanding applications positions silver for sustained upward momentum.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Bullish Momentum Meets Key Resistance📈 Technical Analysis: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) – April 2025 🚀 Market Structure & Price Action for US500 The daily chart shows the S&P 500 E-mini Futures in a bullish recovery after a significant correction. The recent rally has pushed price back toward previous swing highs, an area likely to contain resting buy-side liquidity. This move suggests that the market is currently in a markup phase, but is now approaching a critical resistance zone where profit-taking and counter-trend activity may emerge. 🧠 Wyckoff Perspective From a Wyckoff methodology standpoint, the recent price action resembles a classic accumulation-to-markup transition. The sharp selloff in March and early April appears to have formed a selling climax (SC) followed by an automatic rally (AR) and a secondary test (ST). The current advance could be interpreted as a sign of strength (SOS), but the proximity to previous highs raises the risk of an upthrust (UTAD) or a bull trap if supply emerges. 🌊 Liquidity & Potential Pullback As price trades into the prior highs, it is likely "eating" buy-side liquidity—triggering stops and breakout orders. This process often leads to a liquidity sweep, where price briefly exceeds resistance before reversing as large players offload positions. If the market fails to sustain above these highs, a pullback or even a reversal could be initiated, especially if volume and momentum wane. 🌐 Market Sentiment & Fundamentals Current sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 E-mini trading above 5,500 and recent sessions showing resilience despite mixed earnings and macroeconomic uncertainty. The broader market is supported by expectations of stable Fed policy and robust corporate earnings, but there are persistent concerns about inflation and global growth. According to Markets Insider, the ES futures are up 0.59% recently, reflecting a positive but not euphoric tone. However, as noted by Investing.com, there are signs the market could be setting up for a reversal if bulls fail to maintain momentum. 🛠️ Trade Ideas 🟢 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and holds above the previous highs with strong volume and closes, consider a long entry targeting the next psychological resistance (e.g., 5,700–5,800). Place stops just below the breakout level to manage risk. This would confirm continued demand and a potential extension of the markup phase. 🔴 Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above the highs and forms a reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, upthrust), look for a short entry targeting the first support zone (e.g., 5,300–5,200). Stops should be placed above the failed breakout. This would align with a Wyckoff upthrust after distribution and a likely liquidity sweep. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by fxtraderanthony
3